Washington's allies have a key role in any confrontation
Time is running out for the United States to prepare for war in the Pacific
US forces in the Pacific must adopt realistic plans.
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America can deter its opponents by cooperating with its allies.
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Joint military exercises as a means of deterrence and strengthening capabilities.
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US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's plane has landed in Taiwan, in apparent defiance of criticism and threats from the Chinese leadership.
We are no longer in the "time of warning," but we are in the "time of preparation."
We hope the world will realize this in time.
The concept of "warning time" can be very useful, but it has its risks.
Great Britain, in the wake of the heavy losses in the Great War, adopted a planning rule that the armed forces should follow the “10-year rule” and not plan to go to war during that period.
This would save resources, because high availability is expensive.
It will also allow the development of equipment.
The base was checked every year and renewed.
The Treasury was optimistic, and the Defense Department was less happy.
The Axis powers, as we know, had a different timeline.
As shown in the late 1930s and validated in 1940, the danger lies in not realizing that the warning time has ended and the preparation time has begun.
America has faced its own struggle with the recognition that the time for warning is over.
The peacetime project did not begin until 1940.
One example of a country that has had a proper preparation time is Australia, which correctly sensed the winds of war long before the outbreak of World War II in the Pacific.
In 2021, the Governor of Western Australia, Kim Beasley, accompanied by the former ambassador to the United States, gave a lecture detailing Australia's preparation for war, led by then Prime Minister, John Curtin.
Warning time is over in the Western Pacific.
From 1945 on, the United States enjoyed unchallenged air and naval supremacy, going wherever it wanted and projecting power on the coasts, in the Korean and Vietnam wars.
America's lines of communication across the Pacific were similarly unchallenged.
We deployed carrier battle groups unchallenged in the Taiwan Strait during the crises of the mid-1990s.
successful operations
The Chinese military build-up, which began under Deng Xiaoping, accelerated in the 1980s into the 1990s;
Perhaps in response to Washington's successful deployments.
China has taken full advantage of civil-military integration to ensure national and industrial support to modernize and expand its forces at an exceptional speed.
Technological advances, specifically the emergence of widespread surveillance and precision weapons from a distance, have enabled China's quest to control the sea from land.
A massive naval program added to China's strength and ability to oppose US control of the sea.
The artificial island construction that Beijing undertook in the South China Sea, from December 2013 to October 2015, was an ingenious display of de facto control of the sea.
China has created about 12 square kilometers of new land, above the coral reefs, despite the potential for significant environmental damage.
These islands are completely encircled by runways and harbors, despite promises to the contrary.
On the other hand, the American and international reactions were muted, at best.
The Philippines was one exception, but it was quickly ignored by China.
America's naval and air supremacy is now being challenged, with dire implications for deterrence.
What are you doing now?
Action is urgently needed, and guidelines and assumptions must be developed.
For a start, we must abandon our explicit and implicit assumptions of a short and decisive war.
We make mistakes every time.
While the Korean conflict remains confined to the Korean peninsula, a conflict that begins anywhere in East Asia is likely to spread everywhere.
We must look at the armed forces differently to the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, Space Force, Coast Guard and so on.
Another challenge is the United States' ability to ramp up production of ships, aircraft, and weapons.
Early indications are that America cannot replace the Stinger and Javelin missiles, tube and rocket artillery systems, that were sent to Ukraine in time.
Does America have technicians trained to work three shifts in factories?
Can we still recruit enough young people for military service?
According to the nonprofit organization Mission Readiness, “In the United States, 71 percent of young people between the ages of 17 and 24 are ineligible for military service.
Obesity deprives 31% of the service if they choose to do so.
A slew of new laws are also helping to make recruitment more difficult.
The next challenge is to bring troops and material support from the United States into the theater of combat.
In addition to fuel, water, spare parts, equipment and food, which are all necessary requirements.
One only needs to look back at the early days of World War II, when, in the western Pacific, American forces retreated because plans to quickly provide reinforcements failed.
big project
Forces carrying out operational maneuvers must be protected from attack.
For example, amphibious transports, which carry troops into combat, are at their weakest while moving into the target area.
Much work awaits us.
America's strength lies in its allies, so we must cooperate with them in the active pursuit of preparedness.
In the 1950s, when the United States and its allies faced massive geopolitical and technological change, President Dwight Eisenhower embarked on a massive project, drawing in experts from all institutions, and society, to develop a needed strategy.
This historical example may be extendable to Australia, which is already a partner in technology development through the OCOs agreement.
In this context, Japan hosts most of the US forces in the region and is moving toward active collective defense.
India, the fourth member of the Quartet, has a lot to offer.
Therefore, activating and activating the Quartet will in itself act as a deterrent, as it works to build a greater deterrent force.
Wallace Gregson is a former assistant secretary of defense for security affairs in Asia and the Pacific. He is currently a senior advisor at "Afcent International".
China has taken full advantage of civil-military integration, ensuring national and industrial support to modernize and expand its forces at an exceptional speed. America's strength lies in its allies, so we must cooperate with them in the active pursuit of preparedness.
71%
of young Americans between the ages of 17 and 24 are ineligible for military service.
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