4 months of invasion of Ukraine There is no way to end the future scenario

The governor of Luhansk Oblast, eastern Ukraine, has revealed that Ukrainian troops will withdraw from Severodonetsk, the base on the Ukrainian side where fierce battles with Russian troops have continued.

On the other hand, since the Russian side has suffered a large loss in the battles so far, the Ukrainian side is ready to turn to the offensive using weapons provided by Europe and the United States, and there is no way to end the battle.

It has been four months in 24 days since Russia began its military invasion of Ukraine.

The Russian army has focused its efforts on Severodonetsk, which is based on the Ukrainian side, and Lysychans'k, which is next door, with the aim of taking full control of Luhansk Oblast, which is one of the two eastern states.

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on the 24th that it has taken control of the surrounding area one after another in the past five days and has besieged about 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers to the south of Severodonetsk.

Governor Haidai of Luhansk told local media on the 24th, "Unfortunately, Ukrainian troops have to withdraw from Severodonetsk," revealing that the defending forces will move to another base. ..

He also expressed a sense of crisis that Russian troops were heading to Lysychans'k next to Severodonetsk.

On the 23rd, the American think tank "War Research Institute" acknowledged the superiority of the Russian army in the offense and defense over the two cities, and said, "The Ukrainian army delays the invasion of the Russian army and damages the troops. We have achieved our goals. "

"Russian attacks are likely to stagnate in the coming weeks, giving Ukrainian troops a chance to counterattack. Losing Seberodnetsk is a loss for Ukraine, but this battle is a decisive victory for Russia. It will not be, "he pointed out, and said that the offensive and defensive moves will continue.

The British Defense Ministry also pointed out a shortage of troops in an analysis on the 24th, saying that the Russian Air Force had veterans on board as crew members of military aircraft participating in the battle.

He also points out the challenges of Russian military equipment, as pilots of military aircraft appear to have used commercial GPS devices rather than military ones.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov revealed on the 23rd that the high-mobility rocket artillery system = Heimers, which has a long range and is capable of precise attacks, arrived from the United States while the inferiority in the east was reported, and the Western military He showed his readiness to turn to the offensive with the support.

Regarding HIMARS, the US Department of Defense announced on the 23rd that it will provide an additional 4 units, and a total of 8 units will be provided.

In Ukraine, the sacrifice of both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers and the loss of weapons continue to be an attrition warfare, and there is no way to end the battle.

Future "three scenarios" shown by US think tanks

At the end of last month, the American think tank "Atlantic Council" presented three scenarios for possible future developments, with the preamble that it cannot be determined because the situation will change depending on the war situation.

Scenario 1. "Ukraine is gradually driven"

Russia will increase control of the land-based region from eastern Ukraine to the already annexed southern Crimea.

And by destroying or blocking the southern port city of Odesa, Ukraine can be contained inland without facing the sea.

President Putin will continue to attack infrastructure facilities throughout Ukraine, annexing parts of the south and east, and unilaterally declare victory in Russia, suppressing public opinion such as anti-war.

Putin calls for a ceasefire early next year, but is not ready to agree on peace.

President Putin wants to get a wider area of ​​land in the future, such as the area leading to Moldova.

Even next year, NATO members will continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine in an attempt to regain its territory.

However, by the second half of next year, concerns over the financial burden, dealing with refugees, and heightened tensions, including the risk of a nuclear attack, have led to a crack in the agreement and unity of the Western side, of which Germany. France will play a central role in encouraging negotiations for peace.

Scenario 2. "Russia cannot get the results"

Ukrainian tactics, such as successful counterattacks in the eastern Donbass region, will push Russian troops back to areas controlled before February 24, when the military invasion began by early next year.

However, it is difficult for the Ukrainian side to make further progress, hindered by the strong defense of the Russian side.

President Putin faces growing public dissatisfaction with the collapse of the economy and is under pressure to conclude a peace agreement with Ukraine.

From early next year, Turkey, Qatar and India will urge a ceasefire as mediators because of the global economic crisis.

Meanwhile, European leaders are also beginning to seek a diplomatic framework.

French President Emmanuel Macron calls for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping to find a solution.

The framework of the consultation is Ukraine and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, including Russia, plus Germany.

China does not want to undermine Putin's plans, but for economic reasons there is no other choice.

Scenario 3. "Ukraine regains almost everything"

While Western military aid to Ukraine will increase significantly, the Russian army will not be able to supply military equipment etc. due to sanctions as well as morale of soldiers, so from Ukraine except Crimea Forced to withdraw completely.

With this, Ukraine begins to prepare for the recapture of Crimea.

Russia's nuclear retaliation is at increased risk to stop Western military aid.

And when Ukraine launches an attack and the mediation between France and China fails, the possibility of World War III rises at a stretch.

Putin will be threatened to maintain his power by public anger around mid-next year, a year before the presidential election for reelection.

Fearing the appearance of a "huge North Korea" next to it, Europe begins to seek easing sanctions in return for using part of Russia's energy income as compensation for Ukraine's reconstruction fund.

The Atlantic Council, which announced these scenarios, states that what happens next on the battlefield will determine whether the currently stalemate battle will ultimately benefit Russia or Ukraine.

So what is the current battle situation?

Shinji Hyodo, director of policy research at the National Institute for Defense Studies of the Ministry of Defense, said, "Even if Russia can be seen as locally dominant, such as Severodonetsk in the east, the Russian army will achieve complete control of the two eastern states in a short period of time. On the other hand, it is difficult for the Ukrainian army to regain the area controlled by the Russian army significantly, and neither the Russian side nor the Ukrainian side can significantly change the area controlled by themselves. " I am.

On top of that, regarding military assistance from Europe and the United States to Ukraine, which is expected to hold the key to the future, "the temperature difference is being seen among countries regarding how long and how much weapons will be supplied in the future. There may be something like "tired support" for Ukraine. "

To highlight the difference in the position correspondence of Western countries

While negotiations for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine have been suspended and no progress has been made, differences in the positions and responses of Western countries have become apparent regarding the situation in Ukraine, and future developments remain difficult to see. I am.

Of these, in the United States, President Biden signed an additional budget of about 40 billion dollars, about 5 trillion yen in Japanese yen, to strengthen the provision of weapons and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine on the 21st of last month. Was established.

On the military side, the United States has provided ▽ portable surface-to-air missile "Stinger" and ▽ anti-tank missile "Javelin", but is cautious about providing long-range missiles required by Ukraine, and Russia is excessive. There seems to be some speculation that he does not want to stimulate him.

In the UK, Prime Minister Johnson visited Kieu, the capital of Ukraine, to meet with President Zelensky on the 17th of this month, and said at a subsequent press conference, "It is well understood that the people of Ukraine cannot compromise with President Putin." He emphasized the continued need for financial and military support.

France said President Macron said in an interview with a French newspaper reported on the 3rd of this month, "Don't humiliate Russia, because diplomatic means will not be able to make an exit."

This statement expressed the desire to maintain a relationship in which France could have a dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin in order to act as an intermediary in the ceasefire negotiations, but it resulted in strong opposition from the Ukrainian side.

Germany urged Prime Minister Scholtz to meet with President Putin on the phone on the 13th of last month to realize a ceasefire as soon as possible and seek a diplomatic solution, and on the 28th of last month with President Putin with President Macron. We had a telephone talk with the three parties.

Regarding the talks, the German side said that Prime Minister Schortz and President Macron called on Putin to negotiate directly with President Zelensky.

However, regarding the leaders of France and Germany who talk to Russia, President Duda of Poland said in an interview with the German media on the 8th of this month, "During World War II, with Hitler who leads Nazi Germany. It's the same as communicating over the phone. "

In addition, the three Baltic states, which are geographically close to Russia, are becoming more vulnerable to this military invasion. The resolution was unanimously adopted.

Meanwhile, regarding sanctions on Russia, the EU-European Union agreed at a summit meeting on the 30th of last month to ban the import of Russian oil, but Hungary strongly opposed it because it threatened to secure its own energy. Imports by pipeline will be excluded for the time being.

In this way, regarding the situation in Ukraine, the differences in the positions and responses of Western countries are highlighted, and future developments are still difficult to see.

Total amount of support for Ukraine announced by each country

Germany's "Kiel Institute for World Economic Studies" has summarized the total amount of assistance from January to 7th of this month and announced it on 16th of this month about the amount of assistance announced by each country including military assistance and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. did.

According to it, ▽ total amount is 78 billion euros, about 11 trillion yen in Japanese yen, ▽ of which the United States has the largest amount of 42.6 billion euros, about 6 trillion yen in Japanese yen, accounting for more than half of the total. I am.

Next, ▽ EU = European Union is 15.5 billion euros, about 2.2 trillion yen in Japanese yen, ▽ UK is 4.8 billion euros, about 680 billion yen in Japanese yen, ▽ Germany is 3.2 billion euros, about 450 billion yen in Japanese yen. Yen, ▽ Poland is 2.7 billion euros, Japanese yen is about 380 billion yen.

Regarding the ratio of the amount of support to GDP = gross domestic product of each country, in descending order, ▽ Estonia is 0.87%, ▽ Latvia is 0.73%, ▽ Poland is 0.49%, ▽ Lithuania is 0.31%, etc. Countries that are geographically close to Russia and have historically regarded Russia as a threat occupy the top positions.

In this regard, Germany and France, which are the major European countries, both have less than 0.1%.

There are also differences in the domestic public opinion of European countries over Russia's military invasion of Ukraine.

The European Council on Foreign Relations, a research institute in Europe, conducted a survey of 8,000 people in 10 European countries from late April to mid-April.

According to the survey, those who chose the answer "Even if the territory is to be handed over to Russia, the most important thing is to ceasefire as soon as possible" are called "peace factions".

On the other hand, those who chose the answer "Even if more Ukrainians are killed or forced to evacuate, the most important thing is to punish the invading Russia" are called "justice". ..

Looking at the survey results, ▽ "peace faction" was 35%, ▽ "justice faction" was 22%, and ▽ "neither can be said" was 20%.

Looking at the percentages of "peace" and "justice" by country, ▽ Italy is 52% and 16%, ▽ Germany is 49% and 19%, ▽ Romania is 42% and 23%, and ▽ France is 41%. It was found that "peace faction" exceeded "justice faction" in 9 out of 10 countries surveyed, such as 20%.

On the other hand, only ▽ Poland showed the opposite tendency, with 16% and 41%, and the result was that "justice" exceeded "peace".

Expert "A certain difference in the position of each country, unity under pressure against Russia"

Regarding the response of Western countries to the situation in Ukraine, Associate Professor Michito Tsuruoka of Keio University, who is familiar with international security, will put pressure on Russia through economic sanctions, etc., although there are certain differences in the positions of each country. We analyze that they are united in terms of points.

Of these, Poland and the Baltic States, which are geographically close to Russia in Europe, have taken the strictest stance toward Russia, saying that they "have made a very strong claim that Russia should be defeated." I analyze that I am in a position to be.

As a background, Mr. Tsuruoka said, "If these countries end up having something to gain on the Russian side from the war of aggression, Russia will invade again. In that case, the next target to be invaded is We are serious about becoming our own country. "

In the same Europe, Germany and France said, "There is no imminent sense of urgency against the threat of Russia. Even if Russia is excluded and isolated, the security of Europe cannot be guaranteed in the medium to long term." , We are in a position to emphasize dialogue with Russia.

Regarding the United States, it is analyzed that "it is located between the countries that have a strict attitude toward Russia and the countries that are said to have a sweet response among European countries."

"President Biden has repeatedly emphasized that'we will not make decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine', and this principle is very important," he said, maintaining his stance of providing consensus-building support with Ukraine. I point out that.

Regarding the response of Western countries, Mr. Tsuruoka said, "European countries are always pointed out that their pace is out of order, but this time they are extremely aligned. We are able to unite at a high level between the United States and Europe." Although there are certain differences in the positions of each country, we analyze that they are united in terms of putting pressure on Russia through economic sanctions.

On the other hand, regarding the outlook for the future, "For Ukraine, the purpose of the current war is to push back the Russian troops in the territory, and that is the victory. It is the international community that Russia should not be in the form of victory. It's a consensus idea. "

Tsuruoka points out that prolonged fighting will affect the political economy of countries around the world.

In the election of the National Assembly, which is the House of Representatives of France on the 19th of this month, the number of seats in the ruling coalition fell below the majority. Can be said to be in the background. "

He pointed out that "for Russia, claiming that'the responsibility for rising prices lies with the economic sanctions of Western countries' is almost the only remaining means."

Biden administration Challenges of domestic response while strengthening support for Ukraine

Four months after Russia's military invasion, the Biden administration in the United States is further strengthening its military assistance to Ukraine.

On the other hand, in the United States, less than five months have passed until the mid-term elections in the fall, and the people's interest in Ukraine is diminishing. Faces the big challenge of visibly improving.

The US Byden administration has further strengthened its military support in response to the intensifying offensive of Russian troops in the eastern part of Ukraine, and so far, ▽ anti-ship missile "Harpoon" and ▽ high mobile rocket artillery system = Heimers Announced the provision of weapons such as.

According to the Ministry of State, the amount of military aid to Ukraine has risen to more than $ 6.1 billion, or more than 820 billion yen in Japanese yen, since the invasion of Russia in February.

In addition, the Biden administration is focusing on supporting in a multilateral framework in anticipation of a prolonged military invasion.

So far, it has hosted three international meetings in which NATO = members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization participate, and at the meeting on the 15th of this month, Germany announced its policy to provide a multiple launch rocket system from European countries. It also plays the role of waving the flag of the provision of weapons.

Meanwhile, in the United States, with less than five months until the mid-term elections in November, President Biden's approval rating has fallen below 40% on average in polls, the lowest level since his inauguration. I am.

Moreover, Americans' interest in Ukraine is diminishing.

According to a poll conducted by research firm Ipsos, the percentage of those who answered "war and foreign conflict" to the question "what is the most important problem facing the United States" was immediately after the invasion. In early March, the percentage of respondents who answered "economy, unemployment, employment" was 17%, which was the second highest, while this month, three months later, it was 3%.

On the other hand, 32% of the respondents answered "economy, unemployment, employment" this month, indicating that the public's interest is shifting to the life in front of them.

One of the major causes is record inflation that continues in the United States.

Last month's consumer price index rose 8.6% compared to the same month of the previous year, reaching a record level for the first time in about 40 years.

President Biden said on the 10th of this month that "Putin's price increase is hitting the United States," accusing Russia of continuing military invasion and "doing whatever it can to lower prices." ".

President Biden sent a letter to seven companies, including oil giant ExxonMobil, to stop the rise in gasoline prices, which is essential for the United States in the motorized society, and urged them to increase supply promptly.

In the middle of next month, it announced that it will visit Saudi Arabia, an oil-producing country whose relations have been chilled due to human rights issues.

President Biden wants to curb gasoline prices by encouraging increased crude oil production.

He also admits that the former Trump administration is considering reducing some of the tariffs it imposes on imports from China.

Behind this kind of anti-inflation measure, if the ruling party and the Democratic Party lose in the mid-term elections in November, they will fall into the so-called "lame duck" where they cannot carry out policies as they wish without the cooperation of the parliament for the remaining two years. You may.

President Biden faces the major challenge of visibly improving people's livelihoods in the country, looking ahead to elections, while responding to the protracted Ukrainian crisis.

U.S. expert "Focusing on domestic issues for the Biden administration election?"

Four months after Russia's military invasion of Ukraine began, American experts are shifting public attention to familiar issues such as record inflation, and the Biden administration is in the fall midterm elections. There is a view that it will put more effort into domestic issues.

In an interview with NHK, Professor Paul Slasic of Youngstown State University, Ohio, who specializes in American politics, said about the situation in Ukraine: "In addition to what was not thought to be so long in the United States, the United States directly People's interests are waning a little because they haven't sent troops to Ukraine, "he said, saying that people's interests are shifting to familiar issues such as inflation.

"What the Biden administration is trying to do now is to blame Russia for the soaring gasoline prices, linking economic problems such as inflation with the war in Ukraine," he said. "As the election approaches. , Will be more focused on domestic issues. " He pointed out that he would put more emphasis on.

Regarding the impact of this on the strategy of the United States, Professor Slasic said, "The United States has said that it will provide Ukraine with a huge amount of $ 40 billion, but it may be difficult to provide large financial assistance in the future. In particular, some opposition and Republican candidates question the provision of such funding when financial resources are needed domestically. "

"The question is how will the United States continue to invest money to provide the weapons that Ukraine needs vitally," he said. He said it could affect the way military support should be.