Transnistria: in Moldova, a Russian blackmail tool that is eroding. The appeal for help launched to Moscow by the authorities of this separatist Moldovan region has raised the specter of a Ukrainian-style scenario.

Unlike eastern Ukraine, there is no territorial continuity between the Moldovan separatist enclave and Russia. It is therefore impossible to transport troops or weapons there by land, unless the Odessa region is captured. But opening a front here would force Russia to disperse its troops, says Thomas Merle, doctor in political geography.