Legislative 2022 © FMM graphic studio
If the presidential election had proposed in the second round a new confrontation between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen after that of 2017, the legislative elections are marked by the rebirth of a leftist bloc against the presidential bloc.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon's New People's Ecological and Social Union came in slightly ahead, on Sunday June 12, in the first round of the legislative elections with 25.6% of the votes, according to the estimate of our partner Ipsos Sopra Steria, just ahead of Together! , the presidential coalition, which won 25.2% of the vote.
Behind, the National Rally gets 19.1%, The Republicans 13.6% and Reconquest 4.1%.
With such elbow-to-elbow, everyone can see noon at their doorstep.
For the head of government, Elisabeth Borne, the presidential coalition is "the only political force capable of obtaining a majority in the National Assembly".
>> To see in video: the speeches of the election evening of the first round of the legislative elections
"Faced with the extremes, we alone carry a project of coherence, clarity and responsibility. I therefore call on all republican forces to rally around this project and our candidates", she continued during a speech from Ensemble's campaign headquarters!
in Paris.
Reading the results was quite different for Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
"The truth is that the presidential party is beaten and defeated," he reacted, saying that "headquarters projections at this hour make almost no sense".
"For the first time in the Fifth Republic, a newly elected president fails to muster a majority in the legislative election that follows," added the leader of Nupes.
An in-between "project against project"
"I have the feeling that we have overturned the table, the left was supposed to be dead, we have thwarted all the predictions and we come first in this first round", rejoiced for her part the deputy LFI Clémentine Autain on TF1.
With duels between Nupes and Ensemble!
in the majority of the constituencies, for the second round of the legislative elections on Sunday June 19, it is therefore a return of the left-right divide in the French political landscape that the voters have chosen.
“From now on, it is a second round of clarification which opens, project against project”, thus commented the Minister Delegate for Public Accounts, Gabriel Attal, on the set of TF1.
>> To read: What to remember from the first round of legislative elections in France
Rising wages, legal retirement age, taxation, public services, education or even ecological planning, Europe: everything or almost opposes Nupes and Together!
in terms of ideas.
Enough to offer a real debate to voters during the only week between the two rounds.
The challenge of participating in the second round
For both sides, the challenge will obviously be that of mobilization.
Less than one in two voters went to the polls on Sunday.
Abstention broke a new record to stand at 52.3% according to our partner Ipsos Sopra Steria.
It is slightly stronger than five years ago when it reached the 51.3% mark.
The rebound in participation (26.3% abstention in the first round) observed during the April presidential election was short-lived.
>> To read: The novice LREM deputies of 2017: "Their inexperience penalized them"
A status quo in the second round would tend to favor the presidential coalition.
"We have a week to convince and obtain a strong and clear majority," said Elisabeth Borne on Sunday evening.
“To all those who abstained, I want to say tonight to believe in the strength of your vote and to make your voice heard next Sunday,” she added.
La Nupes, on the other hand, will need a burst of mobilization to hope to win.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon was not mistaken there by calling on the voters to "surge" during the second round.
"I call on our people, in view of these results and the extraordinary opportunity it presents for our personal lives and for the destiny of the common homeland, to come out on Sunday next Sunday to definitively reject the disastrous plans of the majority of Mr. Macron,” he said.
>> To read: Coups d'brilliance, proposals and obstruction: hyperactive rebellious deputies for five years
Consequence of the return of the left-right divide: Marine Le Pen and the National Rally risk being relegated to the background of the campaign between the two towers.
The finalist in the presidential election deemed it possible to send "a very large group" of the RN to the National Assembly, a first since 1986. Her future group should not, however, exceed 45 seats according to projections by Ipsos Sopra Steria.
On the other hand, the Nupes and Together!
alone will send several hundred deputies to the Assembly – at least 400 according to Ipsos Sopra Steria.
Without knowing the future winner of the second round, it is now clear that the Palais Bourbon is about to experience a pendulum effect with the return of a large left-wing bloc against the presidential coalition.
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