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A month of war in Ukraine: "An extremely negative assessment" for the Russian army

Russian soldiers on patrol in the city of Mariupol, March 20, 2022. © REUTERS / Alexander Ermochenko

Text by: Stefanie Schüler Follow

6 mins

Ukraine claims to have been able to partially halt the Russian advance.

The Ukrainian army and the territorial defense forces have carried out several counter-offensives, notably in the suburbs of kyiv.

A month after the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western military experts believe they are detecting more and more signs that would demonstrate the precarious situation of the Russian army on the ground.

Vincent Tourret is one of them.

He is in charge of research at the Foundation for Strategic Research.

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RFI: After a month of fighting in Ukraine, what is the outcome for the Russian troops?

Vincent Tourret:

It's a balance sheet that is extremely negative for them, because they haven't achieved any of their campaign objectives: no major Ukrainian city has fallen,

.

The capital, kyiv, still stands.

She is still not surrounded.

The Ukrainian government continues to ensure the representation of its country abroad, to obtain international support and continues to effectively command its troops in the defense of its country.

The Russian forces find themselves today in the grip of its logistical failures, its disorganization on the ground but also at the level of its command.

We finally see the effects of a campaign that was muddled.

The Russians neutralized themselves by engaging very clumsily in this invasion.

The Russian armed forces suffered material losses but also human losses.

Does the Russian General Staff have enough manpower to replace dead or injured soldiers?

In my opinion, there are two answers: first, you have to consider the number of manpower the Russians have to conquer the Ukrainian cities.

Today, the number of 130,000 committed men, especially with the committed losses which revolve around 10%, is very insufficient to ensure the sieges and the conquest of as many cities.

They cannot surround Kiev, Kharkov or other cities and at the same time lay

for example.

And secondly the Russian army has no operational reserve.

She doesn't have a second rung.

That is to say that it has engaged the best of its troops, the bulk of its troops, and without mobilizing additional resources in Russia, without engaging new conscripts and new soldiers, it will not be able to achieve its objectives.

Several international experts, including you, Vincent Tourret, speak today of a “high point” or a “tipping point” for the Russian army.

What does this mean exactly?

The concept of "high point" is an old military concept but one that still works.

In the offensive, but also in the defensive, if you are not careful, you can exceed the optimum of your efficiency.

That is to say that if you don't change your strategy, if you continue to use the same means you will have decreasing incomes, you will be trapped by the dynamics which are unfavorable to you or which will become unfavorable.

In the case of the war in Ukraine, the Russians have engaged their offensive potential.

This potential has been very badly engaged.

And today, if they don't take an operational break – which they seem to be doing precisely to rearticulate and reorganize – they risk making themselves extremely vulnerable to Ukrainian counter-offensives.

And they therefore risk being destabilized. 

We have seen that the Ukrainians are resisting at several strategic points.

But can they carry out real counter-offensives?

Since the start of the conflict, we have seen that the Ukrainians have led a defense that is admirable, that is very intelligent, very agile.

They move and concentrate their forces very well.

Previously, the Ukrainians had already carried out counter-offensives which were of a limited scale, which were tactical, as we have been able to observe in particular on the outskirts of Kharkov or kyiv where the Ukrainians tried to clear the approaches of their cities so as not to be surrounded.

For the past few days, we have been observing larger-scale counter-offensives by the Ukrainians.

And this shows that they are well aware that the Russians are in a very vulnerable situation.

For the Ukrainians this is probably the most favorable moment to try to counter-attack and regain lost ground.

Do Ukrainians have a chance of succeeding?

The Ukrainians are under strong pressure to reconquer.

They can't stay on a simple

.

Russian troops are still in Ukraine.

A stagnation of the conflict, with Ukrainian cities which would be at the mercy of Russian artillery fire and which are today massively bombarded by the Russians, is not sustainable.

So the Ukrainians are under pressure to take back these territories.

This pressure is all the more important as their capacity for reconquest plays a capital role in the pursuit of negotiations with Russia.

The Ukrainian government knows that if it wants to assert its demands with the Russian authorities, in order to be taken seriously, it must be able to show not only that the Ukrainian army can stop the advance of the Russian forces but that it can also inflict some really big, decisive defeats on them.

The risk that we perceive is that the clear superiority of the Russians remains on the whole heavy segment, such as aviation, missiles, artillery.

In terms of firepower, the Russians are well ahead of the Ukrainians.

►Also read: The war in Ukraine from day to day

In defense, the Ukrainians can disperse, they know the terrain.

They can therefore compensate for their technological or quantitative and qualitative inferiority with the terrain, their determination, their intelligence and their agility.

On the other hand, when they move into the counter-offensive position they have to take much greater risks.

In turn they become more vulnerable to counter-strikes from the Russians.

There is therefore a real risk that the Ukrainian army will exhaust its forces with excessive counter-offensives.

And yet, indeed, the Ukrainians know that it is a favorable moment for the counter-offensives because the Russians are disorganized, they have big problems.

So maybe it's time to exploit them.

But we have to be careful, because the Ukrainian forces,

they, too, are worn out in battle.

And they too should not scatter their means.

In this context, what might the end of the conflict look like?

Any quick resolution to this conflict is long gone.

Today, we are heading towards an intensification of the conflict.

There will be more and more violence.

But on the conclusion of the war I prefer to say nothing.

It would be really reckless.

Your questions about the war in Ukraine © RFI

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