Most notably, the Renaissance Dam and Libya... To what extent are Egypt's regional interests affected by Western sanctions on Russia?

Cairo -

With the dwindling chances of the Russian war on Ukraine coming to an end soon, Western sanctions against Russia raise questions about the extent of their impact on Egypt's security and geopolitical interests in its regional surroundings. How will Cairo deal?

And to what extent can it benefit from the American restriction of Moscow's activity and the conflicting interests between the two parties?

With the passage of more than two weeks since the war, Cairo is still watching cautiously without a clear inclination or support for one party at the expense of another. At the time when it supported the UN resolution demanding Russia's withdrawal from Ukraine, it was quick to point out its refusal to employ economic sanctions against Moscow in the crisis.

In this regard, two political experts agreed - in statements to Al Jazeera Net - that Egypt should be keen on balancing its strategic relations and not taking free positions in favor of one of the parties, but rather that it be based on achieving clear interests and an accurate assessment of profit and loss accounts.

With a quick return to the pages of modern Arab history, there are regional conflicts that Cairo has exploited to its advantage, most notably in the nineties of the last century when it participated in an international coalition led by the US to liberate Kuwait from the Iraqi invasion, as it was able to drop many of its debts and obtain many Gulf and European grants.

In this report, Al Jazeera Net seeks to monitor the most prominent Egyptian files associated with Russia, and the extent to which they are positively or negatively affected by the sanctions imposed on Moscow.

AlNahda dam

Despite Addis Ababa’s recent announcement that the dam will be partially operated, Cairo still needs Western support in supporting negotiations or re-presenting the file to international organizations after Moscow seemed less enthusiastic about Egypt in this regard.

– In an indication that Europe is able to influence, the European Union’s Special Representative for the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea, Annette Weber, stated a few days ago that the European Union is “ready for a greater discussion” of the dam file.

- In the summer of last year, Russia obstructed the efforts of Egypt and Sudan in a UN Security Council session on the dam, and later concluded a military agreement with Ethiopia.

- This position raised questions - at the time - about the extent of Egypt's ability to rely on Russia's positions to support its crucial issues.

American think tanks urged Washington to strengthen mediation in the dam negotiations, which qualifies it to play a greater role in the Horn of Africa, as well as undermine Russian and Chinese moves aimed at threatening Western interests in the long run.

Libya and Syria

Cairo appears to be closer to Moscow than Washington in the Libya and Syria files in particular, and this has reinforced the gradual withdrawal of the United States in recent years from Middle East issues and conflicts.

With regard to the Libyan file, the Ukrainian war comes at a time when the country is witnessing the harbingers of a new phase of instability due to the cancellation of national elections and the presence of two governments, each of which sees it as having legitimacy.

– Support for retired Major General Khalifa Haftar represents a thread that unites Cairo and Moscow in Libya, even if Cairo has recalculated and started marketing for a political path that no longer excludes the Libyan West.

The Ukrainian war could force Moscow to withdraw the Russian Wagner mercenaries from Libya, which may represent an opportunity for Cairo to pave the way towards the exit of foreign mercenaries and to enhance its position in negotiations with the Turkish side in the Libyan file.

Navigation and gas

The Ukrainian war led to the consideration of Egyptian gas as one of the alternatives to Russian natural gas supplies to Europe.

- Huge gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean have triggered a series of regional conflicts, at a time when Cairo seeks to transform into a regional energy hub.

- Last August, the Russian ambassador to Cairo, Georgy Borisenko, said in statements to the Egyptian media that his country still considers the Mediterranean Gas Forum (based in Cairo) a competitor in the energy field, but it will consider joining it as an observer.

– Russia represents one of the most prominent international competitors to the Suez Maritime Canal and is promoting alternative routes to the Egyptian shipping course, and Western sanctions may contribute to disrupting or delaying the implementation of these ideas.

- In the summer of last year, Russia and the UAE signed an agreement to develop a container shipping line across the North Pole, in a route that Moscow is promoting as an alternative to the Suez Canal, and the Egyptian SUMED line that also connects Bahrain.

The rise in oil prices contributes to an increase in the value of Egyptian oil exports on the one hand, and an increase in Suez Canal revenues from oil tankers transiting the canal on the other hand.

maneuvering papers

Stressing that his country has no strategic interest in restricting Russia's regional activity if this restriction is in favor of the United States, the Egyptian academic and political analyst Hassan Nafaa urged his country to seek balanced strategic relations between East and West, in light of the gradual trend of the balance of power movement in the international system - however - Slowly in favor of Russia and China.

In statements to Al Jazeera Net, Nafaa explained that Egypt is not affected by the Russian presence in Syria or Libya, and Russia also does not have a decisive position or a great influence on Ethiopia in the dam file.

Regarding the repercussions of reducing Russian energy supplies, he pointed out that the Mediterranean gas file is not linked to Egypt alone, but to all of the forum's member states.

A little in agreement with Nafaa, Abdullah al-Ashaal, a professor of international law and a former assistant foreign minister, said that the Egyptian regime does not maneuver between Russia and America, pointing out that Cairo is currently closer to Washington and cannot stay away from it, but it cannot tolerate anti-Russian relations.

In statements to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Ashaal believes that the Russian position on the dam file is more realistic, as Cairo has become paperless in Africa, and the permanent members of the Security Council have taken the side of Ethiopia due to the decline in Egypt's position in the region.

With regard to the Libya and Syria files, Al-Ashal expected a possible impact in the event of curtailing the Russian role on Egypt’s vision, for two considerations: The first is related to the armed groups in Syria that will strengthen America and Europe after Russia’s involvement in the Ukrainian file.

The second consideration is related to Cairo and Moscow's support for the Syrian government, and at some point the latter could strengthen and confront Russia, which has military bases and controls the Syrian decision so far.

The former diplomat also expected a global energy crisis in the next stage, much broader than the gas file, ruling out that Egypt would become an alternative to Russia in terms of gas supplies.

In a not-too-distant context, journalist Imad El-Din Hussein called for not taking "free" positions in the war on Ukraine, as long as it is based on an accurate arithmetic process that evaluates the gains and losses from the support of one of the parties.

In an article in Al-Shorouk newspaper, Hussein advised asking the party that his country would support to say to him clearly, "We expect you in return to support us in an issue that is important to us as Arabs or as Egypt, such as the Renaissance Dam issue for example."