In Myanmar, Southeast Asia, civilian casualties continue to resist the forces that caused the coup.
It's been a year since the coup d'etat, what's happening there now?
Where and what is Aung San Suu Kyi, a pro-democracy leader detained by the military?
I summarized the situation in Myanmar after the coup d'etat.
(Asia Directorate General Satoshi Iinuma, Keisuke Matsuo, International Department Reporter Genki Kitai)
What happened a year ago in the first place?
The coup d'etat happened on February 1st last year.
The military explained that there was a large-scale fraud in the general election held in November, and that actions were taken to prevent the inauguration of the government based on the result.
In the general election, the political party NLD = National League for Democracy led by Mr. Suu Kyi won overwhelmingly, and February 1st was the day when the parliament was convened for the first time after the election.
The military detained Mr. Suu Kyi on suspicion of illegally importing radios and using them without permission.
The international community, including Japan, which dispatched election monitoring teams, evaluates the elections as fair.
What is behind the military's coup d'etat?
What has been pointed out is the impatience of the military.
In Myanmar, the army had previously taken control in a coup, and the current constitution enacted at that time allocates a quarter of the parliamentary seats to military personnel and allows the army to appoint several ministerial posts. Guarantees military involvement in politics, including provisions.
Political parties led by Suu Kyi have stepped up their stance to reduce military power, including attempts to amend the constitution to promote democratization.
The military is believed to have raised a sense of urgency that the administration is about to enter its second term.
How many civilian casualties will be caused by the crackdown of the military?
In places such as Yangon, the largest city, large-scale protests by citizens who oppose the coup and seek democratization have spread, and the military has embarked on a crackdown, killing many citizens.
According to the local human rights group "Political Criminal Support Association," 1,499 people have died due to the crackdown on demonstrations by the military and assault after detention.
There are 11,801 detained people.
(As of January 28)
What about citizens' protests?
I went to the site to cover the situation in Yangon, the largest city where the fierce resistance activities by the citizens continued, but the appearance of many people coming and going was back, and the protests were not seen in the open.
Cars are congested on the main street, and the turmoil is back.
The weekend shopping mall was crowded with a surprising number of shoppers.
However, when the sun goes down and it gets dark, the number of people and cars suddenly decreases.
This is to prevent the military and police from being cracked down and being involved in attacks by armed groups that resist the military.
In addition, many people lose their income and jobs due to the economic downturn, and crimes such as robbery are increasing, making security worse.
In the past, the city was busy even when the sun went down, and many people were chatting on the roadside while feeling the coolness of the night, but the situation has changed completely.
Did the protests stop?
ヤンゴンでは、軍の厳しい取締まりで大規模な抗議デモは行われなくなっていますが、抵抗は形を変えて続いています。
医療関係者や公務員などの中には、職務を放棄する不服従運動をいまも続けている人たちがいます。
去年12月には、市民が一斉に仕事を休み、店も休業して軍への抗議の意思を示す「沈黙のストライキ」が行われました。
ミャンマーの象徴、黄金の仏塔シュエダゴン・パゴダでも、静かな抵抗が続いています。
シュエダゴン・パゴダは訪れる人が大幅に減りました。
市民の大切な聖地だからこそ、軍が統治している今は、訪れたくないという抵抗心の現れです。
スー・チー氏の拘束後の状況は？
スー・チー氏は、軍に拘束されたあと、当初は首都ネピドーの公邸に軟禁されていました。しかし去年5月下旬には、自身も見知らぬ場所へと移され、現在の軟禁場所は不明です。
拘束後さらに汚職などさまざまな罪に問われ、訴追件数はこれまでに少なくとも17件に上っています。
裁判は、首都ネピドーの地方政府の施設のなかに設けられた特別法廷で行われています。
一般の傍聴は許されず、報道関係者も近づくことができません。弁護団にも、かん口令が敷かれています。さらに、スー・チー氏を弁護する立場で証言に立つ人は、軍から危害を加えられることを恐れて、ほとんどいないと伝えられています。
裁判は固く閉ざされた密室で、被告のスー・チー氏にとって極めて不利とされる状況で行われています。
スー・チー氏をめぐる裁判の結果は？
So far, Suu Kyi has been convicted of five crimes, including a criminal law violation allegedly causing social unrest and a violation of the provisions for measures against the new corona, and has been sentenced to six years in prison. ..
Severe judgments will continue in the trial, and it is expected that the sentence will continue to accumulate.
If all were convicted, the maximum sentence would be well over 100 years.
It will be impossible for Suu Kyi, now 76 years old, to be free again.
What are your concerns in Myanmar now?
Resistance movements are being curtailed in urban areas such as Yangon, and conflicts between military and pro-democracy armed groups are intensifying in rural areas.
Last September, the National Unity Government of Myanmar, an organization seeking democratization, called on civilians and ethnic minority armed groups to uprising the military.
Especially in areas near the border, there are bases of armed groups of ethnic minorities who have been in conflict with the military, and it is easy to obtain weapons from neighboring countries, so the battle has intensified and many casualties have occurred. increase.
However, the actual number is unknown.
In addition, the United Nations estimates that as of December last year, 320,000 people had been displaced and displaced in order to escape the fighting.
A terrible event is also happening.
Democratic armed last December, when 35 civilians, including children and women unrelated to the fighting, were killed and burned by the military in eastern Kaya, especially near the border with Thailand, where fighting is fierce. The organization announced.
軍は武装組織との戦闘があったなどと説明をしていますが、アメリカなどはミャンマー軍への非難を強めています。
また、ミャンマーの独立系シンクタンクによれば、クーデター以降、軍による国境付近などでの空爆の数は50回以上にのぼっていて、避難民の支援を行ってきた国際機関のなかには、スタッフを特に戦闘の激しい地域から退避させる動きも出ています。
ミャンマー情勢は今後どうなる？
ミャンマー政治に詳しい京都大学東南アジア地域研究研究所の中西嘉宏准教授は、混乱は今後も続くとみています。
（京都大学東南アジア地域研究研究所 中西嘉宏准教授）
「民主派勢力が武装闘争にかじを切ったことで、スー・チー氏が率いていたころの非暴力の民主化運動からは質的に変化している。今後もそうした急進的な考え方はしばらく維持され、軍を認めず革命を目指す態度を貫くと見られる。軍と民主派勢力が短期的に折り合う可能性は極めて低い。しかし、軍事的には軍が優位で、全土が混乱になるような、いわゆる内戦のイメージというのは今のところ現実のものになりそうにない」
そのうえで、軍が今後何を目指しているのか。次のような見方を示しています。
（京都大学東南アジア地域研究研究所 中西嘉宏准教授）
「市民の抵抗が激しかったヤンゴンやマンダレーなどの主要な都市部では今は比較的、平穏な状態となっていて、軍としては秩序が維持できているという自信があるように見える。想定を超える抵抗にてこずっていることは確かだが、当初の目的だったスー・チー氏率いる政党の幹部を排除したうえで統治を進めていくという考えに変わりはない」
事態の打開に向け日本にできることはある？
中西准教授は「日本政府がミャンマーの政府や軍も含めて関係を築き、信頼を得てきたということは間違いない。とはいえ、軍は日本を含めた国際社会のメッセージに耳を貸す状態ではない」と指摘しています。
そのうえで、中西准教授は、軍の統治は認めることはできないとしながらも、苦境に陥る現地の人たちへの支援を進める必要があるといいます。
（京都大学東南アジア地域研究研究所 中西嘉宏准教授）
「今回の政変の最も大きな被害者は一般の市民だ。これだけ人が亡くなり、人道危機や難民の問題が起こり、経済も停滞するなかで、軍が多くの地域を実効支配している現状を直視せざるをえないタイミングが来ている。国際社会が何も支援ができない状態から脱しなければならない。これは、軍の統治を認めるかどうかという政治判断とは別の問題だ」