Understand the Chinese economic miracle
Interview with Dong Yu, Executive Vice President of China Development Planning Institute, Tsinghua University
The Central Economic Work Conference held from December 8th to 10th, when summing up the economic work in 2021, pointed out that this year is a milestone year in the history of the party and the country. We calmly dealt with the changes in a century and the epidemic of the century and built a new development pattern. New steps were taken, new results were achieved in high-quality development, and a good start to the "14th Five-Year Plan" was achieved.
In the new journey of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way, how to understand the history of China's economic development since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China?
What are the characteristics of my country's macro-control?
With these questions in mind, our reporter interviewed Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Development and Planning Research Institute of Tsinghua University.
Reporter: How to understand the history of China's economic development since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China?
Dong Yu: Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core has led China's economy to achieve a historic leap, and my country's economy has withstood several major tests.
First, after 2012, the impact of the international financial crisis has not yet passed. China's economic growth rate has entered a shifting period. The structural contradictions accumulated over a long period of time have begun to emerge constantly, and the problems of unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable development have become prominent.
In 2015, problems such as the decline in economic growth rate, the decline in the export prices of industrial products, the decline in the profitability of real enterprises, the decline in the growth rate of fiscal revenue, and the increase in the probability of economic risks.
Under such a background, the Party Central Committee promptly adjusted its economic work thinking and promoted the strategic adjustment of the economic structure.
The second is that the world economy is anti-globalization, and protectionism and unilateralism are on the rise.
Especially since 2018, the United States has brazenly provoked economic and trade frictions and strengthened its blockade against China in all respects.
Under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee, the Chinese economy has continued to grow in the struggle.
The third is the global outbreak of new crown pneumonia in 2020, which has accelerated the world economy into a period of turbulence and adjustment, and profoundly changed the global economic landscape.
The epidemic has brought major challenges to China’s consumption, investment, exports, and people’s livelihoods, but China’s economy has once again demonstrated strong resilience. In 2021, my country’s economic development and epidemic prevention and control will maintain a leading position in the world, achieving a good start to the "14th Five-Year Plan" .
In this process, the Party Central Committee successively made major judgments on the economic development situation and effectively guided the direction of economic work.
In 2013, the Central Economic Work Conference made the judgment of "three-phase superposition"; in 2014, the "new normal" was proposed and nine phase characteristics were analyzed; the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China made it clear that China's economy has shifted from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality In the development stage, guide all parties to focus on promoting economic development quality changes, efficiency changes, and power changes.
Reporter: The "14th Five-Year Plan" outline proposes a sound macroeconomic governance system.
How to understand the macroeconomic governance system?
Dong Yu: In accordance with changes in the situation, the Party Central Committee has continuously adjusted and improved its economic work thinking, and gradually established a macroeconomic governance system with Chinese characteristics.
It can be grasped from four aspects: First, adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, and scientifically grasp the relationship between "stability" and "progress."
Seeking progress while maintaining stability is an important principle of our party’s governance of the country. It is also the general keynote of all Central Economic Work Conferences since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. All previous economic work conferences have always adhered to the basic principle of keeping the general keynote unchanged. Under the premise, according to the characteristics of different years, the focus of work is determined in a targeted manner.
For example, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need to maintain stability and seek progress while maintaining stability, in order to create a stable macro environment for the party's 20th victory.
The second is to adhere to the supply-side structural reform as the main line, and enrich the connotation of the supply-side structural reform in accordance with changes in the situation.
After the eleventh meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group proposed the supply-side structural reform in 2015, the supply-side structural reform has become the main line of economic work, and its connotation has been continuously enriched. It is clearly necessary to form a demand-driven supply, Supply creates a higher level of dynamic balance of demand and enhances the overall effectiveness of the national economic system.
Third, in terms of the policy framework, the basic framework for macroeconomic policies to be stable, microeconomic policies to be viable, and social policies to support the foundation has been gradually established.
This was proposed in 2013, and after several adjustments, 2019 was established as a policy framework for macro-control.
In 2021, it will be further expanded into seven policy directions, which will be more closely integrated with the annual tasks.
Fourth, the policy tools for macro-control have been continuously enriched and improved, and a comprehensive policy system has been established.
The toolkit of macro-control has been expanded and extended from the past relying mainly on fiscal and monetary policies, forming a strategic orientation with national development planning, fiscal and monetary policies as the main means, employment, industry, investment, consumption, and environmental protection. , Regional and other policies closely coordinate, target optimization, reasonable division of labor, efficient and coordinated macroeconomic governance system.
Reporter: The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that focusing on maintaining economic operations within a reasonable range, strengthening and improving macro-control, intensifying the inter-cyclical adjustment of macro policies, and improving the forward-looking pertinence of macro-control.
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, what are the characteristics of China's macro-control?
Dong Yu: Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China's macro-control has successfully dealt with a series of difficult problems and challenges. Its experience and characteristics can be summarized in the following five points:
The first is to use system concepts to achieve multi-objective dynamic balance.
The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that “Economic and social development is a systematic project, which must comprehensively consider politics and economy, reality and history, material and culture, development and people’s livelihood, resources and ecology, domestic and international factors." The focus is changing. It is no longer anxious about the temporary GDP growth rate, but emphasizes the improvement of the comprehensive coordination mechanism of macroeconomic policies, and strives to achieve the unity of development quality, structure, scale, speed, efficiency, and security.
The second is to grasp the intensity and sense of rhythm, and implement precise control.
In recent years, macro-control has focused on the dialectical relationship between "stability" and "progress", ensuring that every major node can be seen and grasped accurately.
In the face of economic pressures, maintain strategic determination, refrain from flooding floods, and in accordance with priorities, on the basis of grasping the strength of counter-cyclical adjustments of macroeconomic policies, do a good job in cross-cyclical policy design, and put forward specific measures in a targeted manner.
When adjusting policies and promoting reforms, we must grasp the timeliness and effect, and insist on first standing and then breaking, steady and steady.
The third is to properly handle the short-term and medium- to long-term relationship, taking both the current and the long-term into consideration.
Macro-control work focuses on investigation and analysis, timely discovers signs and tendencies in economic development, and introduces "six stability" and "six guarantees" measures to avoid excessive short-term fluctuations that affect stability.
At the same time, it pays attention to long-term problem-solving, takes development planning as the lead, perseveres in implementing supply-side structural reforms, and actively promotes the resolution of deep-seated and structural contradictions and problems.
Integrate annual and quarterly short-term goals with the mid-term goals of the five-year plan and the long-term goals of the long-term outlook to reflect the coordination and unity between goals and enhance the consistency of development strategies.
The fourth is to remove institutional barriers through reforms and stimulate the potential of market players.
Innovation and improvement of macro-control is the meaning of the modernization of the national governance system and governance capabilities. The process of enriching the tools and methods of macro-control is the process of deepening reforms in the governance field.
The transformation of traditional regulatory thinking through reforms and the organic integration of key link reforms with the original economic policies are major innovations in regulatory pathways.
Many of the major reform issues studied by the Central Committee for Comprehensively Deepening Reform at previous meetings were aimed at difficult and blocked issues in economic and social development, and played an important role in promoting economic work.
The fifth is to coordinate development and safety, and keep the bottom line that systemic risks do not occur.
In recent years, macro-control has continuously strengthened risk awareness, in-depth analysis of changes in the development environment, especially the impact of imported risks, and focused on the risks of exchange rate, shadow banking, price, debt, etc., and adopted differentiated and targeted measures based on the risk situation in different fields. Ways to concentrate efforts and prioritize issues that may threaten economic and social stability and cause systemic risks.
By maintaining economic and financial security, the overall stability of development has been effectively maintained.
Reporter: How do we understand that my country's economy has taken a path of higher quality, more efficient, fairer, more sustainable, and safer development?
Entering a new stage of development, how to deal with the profound changes in the internal and external environment of my country's development?
Dong Yu: Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, my country's economy has embarked on a path of higher quality, more efficient, fairer, more sustainable and safer development.
The Party Central Committee has made arrangements for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the long-term development in 2035.
Persist in the implementation of the innovation-driven development strategy, take scientific and technological independence and self-reliance as the strategic support of national development, and take the road of higher quality development; build a modern economic system, adhere to the improvement of the socialist market economic system, adhere to the "two unshakable", and take A more efficient development path; solidly promote common prosperity, strive to improve the quality of life of the people, promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, and take a more equitable development path; adhere to the integration of landscape, forest, land, lake, grass and sand Protection and system governance, proactively make promises of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, and take the road of more sustainable development; incorporate overall development and safety into the guiding ideology of the "14th Five-Year Plan" to prevent and resolve all issues that affect the modernization process. This kind of risk, build a strong national security barrier, and take a safer road of development.
Entering a new stage of development, my country's development internal and external environment has undergone profound changes, and it is facing many new major theoretical and practical problems, which require correct understanding and grasping.
The Central Economic Work Conference systematically expounded the five "correct understanding and grasping" content, and put forward ideas and plans for solving development problems.
At present, we must always follow the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress while stability, complete, accurate and comprehensive implementation of the new development concept, accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, and insist on innovation-driven development , To promote high-quality development.
It is necessary to systematically summarize the experience of economic work, dare to break through the stereotypes of traditional Western economic theories, proceed from the practice of China's economic development, and proceed from the changes in the pattern of globalization, and conduct in-depth research on the mode and theoretical support of economic development.
It is necessary to adopt various methods to vigorously promote China's economic work experience, and enhance the people's sense of identity and cohesion with China's development path.
Our reporter Yang Yaling Zhang Dongyue