Sudan: "From the start, the military did not want civilians in the transition"

Thousands of Sudanese took to the streets of Khartoum to protest against the military coup of October 25, 2021. AP - Ashraf Idris

Text by: Amélie Tulet Follow

3 min

After the coup d'état of October 25, 2921 in Khartoum, the Sudanese soldiers took the gamble of assuming full powers over the transition and excluding the civilian component from it.

Decryption with Raphaëlle Chevrillon-Guibert, researcher in political sociology at the Institute for Research for Development and specialist in the Sudanese regime.

Advertising

Read more

What interest do the military have in excluding civilians from the Sudanese transition

From the start, the military did not want civilians in this transition.

In 2019, when they staged a coup against their own regime, that of Omar al-Bashir, of which they were part, they had no plans to include civilians at all.

It is the civilians who have really imposed themselves in this transition with four months of demonstrations.

For two years, there has always been this desire on the part of the military to limit the power that civilians had in this transition, or even to exclude them from it.

Are these soldiers not taking a risk, while the international community was supporting the transition

Indeed, and this risk the military measures it.

We heard it in General

speech on

reminding the international community that he will keep all of Sudan's commitments.

There is a kind of double talk.

He crushes the civilians but at the same time, he tells the partners " 

 ".

What role does the economic situation that you described on RFI in May play as “

The soldiers really counted on this economic situation which had already undermined the regime of Omar al-Bashir. Because there were, quite logically, recriminations of the Sudanese against the civilian government responsible for managing daily life. In Sudan today, it is still difficult to eat, inflation is rampant, gasoline is excessively expensive. There was therefore a civil dispute against this government, as in any country going through an economic crisis. The soldiers seized on it to say: " 

". The reality is that the civilian government was trying to limit the power of the military because if we really want to hope for a transition,the soldiers will have to come under the tutelage of civilians and not the other way around.

Where is the sympathy of the majority Sudanese going? To the military or to civilians

I think the military is “surfing” the idea that they are very popular. Obviously, when they came to power in 2019, there was a dilemma for the people who have always feared that the civil wars that the country has known since its independence would win the pacified regions. Suddenly, the arrival of the army, which was a fairly large institution including people from all regions of Sudan, has always known rather sympathy on the part of the population. Afterwards, the fact that the soldiers first tried to crush the popular movement and fired live ammunition at the demonstrators made the majority of Sudanese realize that these soldiers were those of the old regime and that they did not should not welcome them with open arms.

What should we be vigilant about in the hours and days to come?

It's really important to remember that history is never written.

Lots of things can be transformed.

Already it is necessary to hollow out a bloodbath because the demonstrations, a priori, will not stop.

According to my information, a lot of people go out in all the cities of Sudan.

So we are going to have a real confrontation between soldiers and civilians.

And

which played a leading role in the transition, can put pressure on the military to force them to re-include civilians, the starting partners of this transition, to gradually let go before 2023.

►Also read: Sudan: from a precarious political balance to the coup

Newsletter

Receive all international news directly in your mailbox

I subscribe

Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application

google-play-badge_FR

• Sudan