Cairo -
In a surprising statement, the Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, blamed Israel for the worsening talks on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which he considered a "ruin" of two Arab countries, Egypt and Sudan.
Aboul Gheit said - in a television interview last Wednesday evening - that Ethiopia laid the foundation stone for "the dam of ruin, which I do not call the Renaissance Dam, and Israel found it a historical honeymoon and a great opportunity, but (Israel) will pay for it after 20 years."
With regard to the Security Council and its interaction with the dam file, Aboul Gheit attributed the Security Council’s consideration of the water issue as sensitive but not a threat to security and peace to the existence of disputes over water between members of the Council, warning of possible repercussions by not reaching a mechanism and agreement between the three countries.
The Security Council recently adopted a presidential statement urging Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan to resume negotiations to reach a binding agreement on the Renaissance Dam, and while Addis Ababa considered the statement non-binding, Cairo and Khartoum demanded that it have the serious political will to make the African mediation succeed.
Aboul Gheit’s statements came two days after Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi and Egyptian Minister of Irrigation and Water Resources Mohamed Abdel-Aty spoke about the issue of the dam and the importance of reaching a binding decision on it, before the United Nations General Assembly and the Fifth Arab Water Forum, in continuation of efforts to mobilize supportive international positions Egypt and Sudan are in crisis.
Al-Sisi accused Ethiopia of adopting a unilateral approach and pursuing a policy of facts, in addition to its intransigence over the Renaissance Dam after the deterioration of tripartite relations between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia.
In statements to Al-Jazeera Net, two former Egyptian diplomats who worked as assistants to the former Foreign Minister agreed to support Aboul Gheit's accusations against Israel in not settling the dam crisis, and the bullying of Addis Ababa with Tel Aviv and other powers in this file, but they expressed a lack of awareness of how Israel paid the price of building the dam after 20 years. As stated by the Secretary-General of the Arab League.
Israel and Ethiopia in Aboul Gheit's portfolio
Although he recently blamed Israel directly for the worsening dam negotiations, Aboul Gheit had a different opinion years ago about the Israeli role in the dam file, which he revealed in his book “My Testimony” issued in 2012 about his seven-year tenure as a foreign ministry portfolio in his country that ended after the overthrow of the January revolution. January 2011, under the regime of former President Hosni Mubarak.
In his book, Aboul Gheit mentions that the Egyptian financial resources were an obstacle to limiting Egypt’s ability to compete in the African arena, pointing out that when he was Minister of Foreign Affairs, he was afraid of the attempts of blackmail that Egypt would be exposed to from the Nile Basin countries that had lists of development needs from Egypt, at a time when Israel was seeking hegemony and penetration in the brown continent.
The book also dealt with the crisis of the framework agreement for the Nile Basin countries (known as the Entebbe Agreement) in 2010, which Cairo and Khartoum reject, while Addis Ababa renewed its call about a month ago to sign or ratify it quickly.
In the midst of the Entebbe crisis, Aboul Gheit indicated that "he was following with much sadness the lack of knowledge, study and seriousness of those who write in the media about the Israeli penetration and its sweeping of Egypt on the land of the continent."
In his book, Aboul Gheit minimized the media exaggeration of the Israeli penetration and Israel’s relations with the basin countries in particular, explaining that during that period, “there was no resident diplomatic representation of Israel except in a limited number of the basin countries, and that Israel aimed to strengthen its relations with African countries to achieve its interests in the surrounding area. Arab and African countries, as well as cordoning off Iranian endeavors, finding new markets for its exports, especially arms, and acquiring strategic minerals.
As for the Israeli-Ethiopian relations - as stated in the book - they are "characterized by strength and cooperation in the field of armaments and agriculture", and Aboul Gheit pointed out that he reached the conclusion that "Egypt's relations with the Nile Basin countries and their programs exceed Israel by many, and yet the Egyptian problems with these countries also It is due to its sharing of the waters and the Nile River, and it is a sharing that offers many possibilities for understanding and also for disagreement.”
The Embassy of Israel in Egypt expresses its utmost respect to the Egyptian people and their wise leadership led by President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. It affirms in a clear and unequivocal way that what was recently reported in some channels and press articles about the involvement of the State of Israel in the issue of the Renaissance Dam is baseless and untrue. #Israel #Egypt pic.twitter.com/HSNdlJIOQe
— The Israeli Embassy (@IsraelinEgypt) July 18, 2021
accusations and denials
Aboul Gheit's accusations against Israel coincide with accusations by previous Egyptian media that refer to an Israeli role in the dam issue with the aim of threatening Egyptian national security, which Tel Aviv has denied on more than one occasion.
In contrast to the popular tone of skepticism and the agreement of prominent Egyptian elites such as parliamentarian Mostafa Bakri, broadcaster Amr Adib and journalist Emad El-Din Hussein on the existence of a “suspicious Israeli role in the Ethiopian dam file,” the former diplomat Mustafa El-Feki had a different opinion a few weeks ago, as he called for the opening of direct channels With Tel Aviv to help his country move the dam file through its influence on both the United States and Russia.
Despite the Israeli denial of involvement in the dam crisis, there are indications about the benefits of direct Israeli intervention in the crisis, as the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv had previously recommended Israeli decision makers to exploit the water crisis and the Renaissance Dam to expand normalization with Cairo.
What increases the fears of Israeli interference in the dam crisis is the call of experts from Tel Aviv - in a hypothetical symposium in late 2020 with the participation of African experts and officials - the Egyptians to “accept the new reality regarding the dam, and to modify their view of the Nile River in general.”
Ethiopian-Israeli Relations
With the restoration of diplomatic relations in 1989 between Ethiopia and Israel, relations between the two countries improved after an extensive African boycott of Tel Aviv following the 1967 Arab-Israeli war.
In the nineties of the last century, Israel concluded several military and security agreements with Ethiopia - most notably the 1998 agreement - which granted Israel military and intelligence facilities in the Ethiopian territory. This agreement was then confirmed in another strategic agreement in late 1999.
Also, deepening relations with Addis Ababa is part of an Israeli strategy in Africa, as former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced in 2016 a new African policy called “Return to Africa”, to expand his country’s relations with countries such as Ethiopia and explore new countries, and as a result, Netanyahu He toured several countries in East Africa while he was exploring new countries in the West.
However, Israel faced a setback to hold a summit that would have brought together leaders from African countries and Israel in 2017.
“The Dam is ruin, not the Renaissance.” The
Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, Ahmed Aboul Gheit, says that Ethiopia and “Israel” will pay the price for building the Renaissance Dam 20 years from now, noting that the occupation authorities found in the construction of the dam a great opportunity and a honeymoon pic. twitter.com/HfAn0mvjth
— Monitor Network (@RassdNewsN) September 23, 2021
The indication of the timing of the declaration
In this context, Abdullah Al-Ashal, professor of international law, former assistant foreign minister, supports all of the statements he described as "successful and balanced" by Aboul Gheit about the Israeli role in the Renaissance Dam.
In statements to Al Jazeera Net, Al-Ashal said that Ethiopia is empowering Egypt with the United States and Israel, considering that the Ethiopian dam project is a "Zionist project built on the basis of the destruction of Egypt, and the Egyptian government must pay attention to this matter, and not come close to Tel Aviv, which has other ambitions in the likeness of Sinai Island.
Al-Ashaal stressed the significance of the timing of Aboul Gheit’s statements and accusations against Israel, explaining that Aboul Gheit was known for his compromising positions on the Israeli side during his assumption of the foreign ministry portfolio at the end of the rule of former President Hosni Mubarak, and when he condemns Israel today according to his current position in the Arab League, his condemnation has the meaning of prioritizing Arabism and Egypt over Israeli interests. .
On how Israel pays the price of building the dam, Al-Ashal expressed a lack of knowledge of Aboul Gheit's purposes in this regard, adding that the partnership between Tel Aviv and Addis Ababa to harm Egypt will not take place even if Ethiopia has gone a long way in its plan to implement the dam.
sensitive subject
In agreement with the previous proposal, the Egyptian Ambassador Farghali Taha, the former assistant foreign minister, said that Aboul Gheit's statements come in the context of an "important and sensitive issue", which is also ambiguous.
Taha added in statements to Al Jazeera Net, "But there is no doubt that Ethiopia can only bully and confront Egypt and Sudan with external assistance, and I think that the project to prevent the Nile waters from Egypt is an old Zionist project or idea, so I do not rule out Israel's involvement in it, especially in light of the strengthening of its relations Recently with Ethiopia in all fields.
He added that "there is also an old Israeli desire to obtain the waters of the Nile, although this does not require the construction of a dam on the Nile, but the goal is to pressure and control any future regime in Egypt that thinks of preventing water from Israel."
As for Aboul Gheit's statements that Israel will pay the price, even after 20 years, Taha said, "This will certainly happen, and if we do not know how and when, the Arabs will not remain like this throughout their lives."