Evacuations from Afghanistan: what means of pressure do the West have on the Taliban?
Afghans board a US Air Force C-17 Globemaster III transport aircraft during an evacuation at Hamid Karzai International Airport, Afghanistan, August 22, 2021. via REUTERS - US AIR FORCE
Text by: RFI Follow
11 mins
No way the United States and its allies will delay their departure from Afghanistan.
Otherwise, threatens the spokesman of the Taliban, they will be exposed to "
consequences
" without giving more details.
The date of August 31 for the evacuation of the country of people at risk seems very difficult to respect.
So what means do the West have to put pressure on the Taliban so that they agree to an additional delay?
Advertising
Read more
Will the United States withdraw from Afghanistan on August 31, as provided for in the agreements with the Taliban and as the White House reaffirmed on Monday August 23? Pressure is mounting for this deadline to be postponed. Great Britain, France and Germany plead for an extension of the presence of the allies in Kabul to complete the evacuation of their nationals and their Afghan collaborators.
So should we negotiate with the new power in Kabul a possible postponement of the withdrawal of the United States, beyond August 31 in order to complete the evacuations?
Or should we on the contrary impose sanctions against the Islamists, as mentioned by Canada and the United Kingdom?
These questions will be asked during the virtual G7 summit this Tuesday chaired by the United Kingdom.
In any case, we must now come to terms with the Taliban who have reconquered Afghanistan and reign there as undisputed master.
“
In the panoply of what we have to offer them, it is the recognition, the legitimation of their status of State,
explains Gérard Chaliand, specialist in Afghanistan, joined by RFI.
Until now, they have made a velvet paw in order not to worry the population, to try to be admitted without excessive brutality. Do they want to continue in this style? Do they have an interest in doing so? In my opinion, yes. What does it matter to them to give 8 or 10 more days, what does it change to their victory? Nothing at all. Simply that allows to say: "It is we who will decide sovereignly if we accept or not. That is to say, we sell a little more expensive than what is envisaged." The United States, the British, the French and Germany are ready to negotiate. It remains to be seen what the others will demand as a sort of additional humiliation, just to show that the bosses in Afghanistan, now, it's them.
"
A meeting to "
prevent a humanitarian crisis
"
The members of the G7 - United Kingdom, United States, Canada, Germany, France, Italy and Japan - will urgently try to find a common solution to the Afghan crisis on Tuesday, August 24.
“
Preventing a humanitarian crisis
” is one of the objectives announced by Boris Johnson for this virtual summit of the “group of 7”.
An urgent meeting for the thousands of Afghans awaiting evacuation.
A crucial meeting also for the British Prime Minister, whose relationship with the United States is undermined by this crisis, analyzes our correspondence in London, Claire Digiacomi. Boris Johnson was reluctantly forced to follow the timetable for the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and ignored for 24 hours by President Biden as he tried to reach him on the matter, according to the Sunday Times.
Discussions could therefore be tense around the end date of evacuations at Kabul airport.
The United States has long planned to withdraw completely from the country on August 31, in a week's time.
Hardly tenable, according to the United Kingdom or France, who fear they will not be able to help all vulnerable people.
Boris Johnson will therefore try to convince Joe Biden to postpone this date.
But we will have to negotiate with the Taliban.
Who have already made it known that they would fiercely oppose any postponement.
"
For the most part, the Taliban rule
"
“
For the most part, they dominate the whole country,”
emphasizes Gérard Chaliand.
The pocket of resistance for now is the famous Panshir.
That is to say a very mountainous region and difficult to control, which will probably remain isolated, but which will not change the balance of power.
So we will see how they will manage with the small presence of al-Qaeda, which remains reduced to a few thousand militants, the Islamic State, with them also a presence especially in the Pashtun areas, and in the south of the country.
But for the most part, the Taliban rule.
They are much better organized than in 1996 and my faith, if there is no refusal to comply with what they are going to impose, people will be safe as long as they are submissive.
It is very bad for women and young girls.
We are going to see a power take shape which will inevitably be much more authoritarian tomorrow than it was yesterday.
"
A race against time is underway to urgently evacuate as many foreigners and Afghans as possible before the deadline set by the Taliban for the departure of American forces.
Access to Kabul airport is increasingly complicated for those who want to flee.
Evacuations are carried out in droppings under extreme conditions.
For eight days, according to the Pentagon, more than 37,000 people have been evacuated from the Afghan capital, including 16,000 people between Sunday and Monday, August 23.
The fateful date is also controversial in France and Germany
Germany is in talks with the United States, Turkey and other partners to keep Kabul airport open for evacuations after August 31, the German foreign minister said on Monday. "
We will have to continue to discuss with the Taliban, because they will of course have a particular role to play in the operation of the airport after the withdrawal of the American troops
", specified Heiko Maas.
The German minister also assured that discussions were being held with "
the neighboring countries of Afghanistan
" such as Uzbekistan, Pakistan, India and Tajikistan so that the Afghans that Berlin agrees to support can go to the German embassies of these countries by land to submit their visa application.
For its part, Paris believes that additional time is "
necessary
" to carry out these evacuations. Florence Parly, the French Minister of the Armed Forces, and Jean-Yves le Drian, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, are in Abu Dhabi, the French army's rear base to organize these returns. “
We are concerned [with] the deadline set by the United States of August 31. Additional time is needed to complete the ongoing operations,
”Jean-Yves Le Drian told journalists accompanying him on the base.
The head of French diplomacy announced on Monday that France has already evacuated some 2,000 people: "
These efforts, undertaken by both sides, where they are, have enabled at this time to organize 14 rotations. A400M from Kabul.
They will allow tomorrow to ensure two more.
And what we can tell you is that tomorrow there will be 2,000 people who will have been evacuated in just over a week from Kabul.
It is an exploit.
Besides, every theft is an achievement.
The discussions we had earlier with our team in Kabul show the extreme difficulty of the situation.
That did not prevent the fact that we were able to exfiltrate 2,000 people including 90 French
.
"
A common evacuation in Belgium and the Netherlands
Among the evacuations this weekend include, among others, people evacuated to the Netherlands and Belgium.
The Netherlands had already largely started their airlift last week, but for the Belgians, this is the first evacuation from Afghanistan, organized jointly with the Dutch while the other countries each have their own operation.
It is on the military airfield of Melsbroek, north of Brussels, that the first flight organized by Belgium landed on Monday, reports our correspondent in Brussels, Pierre Benazet.
On board, 193 people: Belgian nationals but also interpreters from the Belgian army in Afghanistan and other Afghan nationals.
For Belgium, it is a relief because the operation of the Belgian Air Force could only be deployed since Saturday, with rotations of four tactical transport devices between Kabul and the Pakistani capital.
It was from Islamabad that the flight that arrived on Monday took off.
Its landing in Brussels was followed shortly after by that of a Dutch Air Force aircraft.
This is the sixth flight of the Dutch airlift, now coordinated with the Belgian operation.
The armies of the two countries henceforth embark on board their aircraft evacuees from Kabul without distinction.
Observers point out in Belgium that this evacuation common to two countries is unique even if, for example, Swiss and Hungarians have embarked nationals of other Western countries.
For some here, the absence of an operation common to all the countries participating in NATO's mission in Afghanistan is incomprehensible.
Newsletter
Receive all international news directly in your mailbox
I subscribe
Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application
google-play-badge_FR
Afghanistan
Taliban
France
Germany
United States
European Union
Belgium