In order to prevent it from interfering in its internal affairs
Iraq wants America to curb Iran's influence over its territory
Biden and Al-Kazemi finally reached an agreement aimed at ending the combat mission of the American army in Iraq.
dad
Iran continues to expand its influence in Iraq through its Shiite militias.
dad
picture
It is very easy to read in the agreement recently reached by US President Joe Biden and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi, which aims to end the combat mission of the US army in Iraq.
Although many observers wish otherwise, it would not be indicative of a change in the overall strategy, and it looks quite like an act of political expediency.
It appears that the imminent exit of US forces from Iraq is a symbolic political act that is in the interest of the Iraqi government, which is trying to find a difficult balance between Iranian and American influence, so that it will continue until the parliamentary elections next October.
expand influence
Iran continues to expand its influence in Iraq, primarily through the country's Shiite militias.
In this regard, American support appears important in order to balance in the face of Tehran's encroachment on the sovereignty of the Iraqi state, in addition to the continuing fears of terrorist activities of ISIS.
On the other hand, the government wants to reduce criticism that the Iraqi government is allowing US forces to harm Iraq's national sovereignty.
The prominent announcement that the United States would withdraw its forces from Iraq was intended to address these criticisms.
Former US President Barack Obama made a similar announcement about the end of the combat mission of US forces in Iraq in 2010. In addition, although US President Joe Biden said that US forces will become their role as training and advisory, the reality indicates They have been doing this job for several years.
This announcement does not prevent American forces from defending themselves as they did under President Donald Trump, when the Trump administration killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in 2020, because he was organizing attacks against American forces.
Not surprisingly, the current administration was happy to accede to the request of the Iraqi prime minister.
On the one hand, the White House sees the current Iraqi administration as the best option for a stable government, and does not have to help it in order to improve its position for the upcoming parliamentary elections.
On the other hand, the White House is still seeking to return to the Iranian nuclear agreement, and to continue its quest to find ways that would lead to calming the bilateral relations between the two countries.
tactical move
The US announcement is a logical tactical move, but the tactic differs from the strategy, and it is unclear whether the US administration has an appropriate, reasonable and acceptable strategy to protect US interests in the Middle East in the long run.
Indeed, a stable future Iraq lies in dealing with Tehran.
The best that the United States can do in the short term is to enable Iraq not to drift completely into the Iranian orbit.
The best way to achieve this is to greatly weaken Iran's ability to influence its neighbors and interfere in their affairs.
Aggressive and intransigent
But Biden's pursuit of a return to the Iranian nuclear agreement has the opposite effect of his goal of creating a stable and independent Iraq, because the Iranian regime was aggressive and intransigent in its demands for the United States to return to the nuclear agreement.
And the worst case scenario is that the Biden administration's return to the Iranian agreement, at all costs, will lead to maximum humiliation for the United States, and will have no effect in curbing Iran's nuclear and domestic ambitions.
Another possible option is that the negotiations could eventually fail, but the United States will continue to "soften up" with Iran in the hope of returning to negotiations at another time.
But both options will lead to more Iranian pressure on Iraq, and more instability in the region.
The best option for the United States would be to cancel the negotiations with Tehran, while at the same time doubling the maximum pressure.
The Iranian regime is currently facing great internal instability.
Extreme pressure will exacerbate an already difficult situation, and make the Iranian government have few resources to allow it to interfere in the affairs of other countries.
In addition, the US administration should increase its support for the Abrahamic agreements and the collective security and economic framework for the Middle East, which will act as a bulwark against Iranian influence, and attract Iraq to a group of stable countries in the region far from Iran's orbit.
Unfortunately, there is little chance that we will see the current US administration undertake this type of leadership, as the Biden administration seems more interested in helping to stabilize the current Iranian regime, and dealing with it rather than working to curb it and limit its aggressive influence.
• The US administration must increase its support for the Abrahamic agreements and the collective security and economic framework for the Middle East, which will act as an impenetrable dam in the face of Iranian influence, and attract Iraq to a group of stable countries in the region far from Iran's orbit.
• Iraq's stable future lies in dealing with Tehran. The best that the United States can do in the short term is to enable Iraq not to drift completely into the Iranian orbit. The best way to achieve this is to greatly weaken Iran's ability to influence its neighbors and interfere in their affairs.
James Jay Caravanaugh is an American expert on national security and foreign policy challenges.
Follow our latest local and sports news and the latest political and economic developments via Google news