The Riksdag's decision to remove Stefan Löfven as Prime Minister is historic.

No Swedish prime minister has previously fallen in a no-confidence vote.

But trapping Stefan Löfven may in retrospect turn out to have been the easiest part of the ongoing political game.

The Left Party set the stone in motion, the Sweden Democrats ensured that the Riksdag raised the issue of no confidence and the Moderates and Christian Democrats secured the majority required to remove Löfven.

But these parties do not want to take power together.

The Left Party has no idea about this.

Immediately after the no-confidence vote, V leader Nooshi Dadgostar announced on the contrary that she only wants Löfven as prime minister.

The Left Party's actions in recent days, however, do not mean that Löfven should hope too much for Dadgostar's willingness to compromise.

"The Liberals' message belongs to history"

What is happening now is therefore shrouded in obscurity.

Stefan Löfven has seven days before he must announce whether the Speaker will take over the process to produce a new prime ministerial candidate or whether Löfven intends to call a by-election.

If the political situation was unclear after the 2018 election, it is, if possible, even more tangled today, after the no-confidence vote.

The message from the Liberals that the January agreement now belongs to history and that the party intends to support M-leader Ulf Kristersson as prime minister means that Löfven will find it much more difficult to gather a majority in the Riksdag.

Of course, he has a mandate predominance (175-174) and that is of course a clear advantage.

But the narrow margin means that a prime ministerial vote can be decided by chance, for example if one or more members suddenly become ill or vote against the party line.

In addition, there are political savages on both sides who may come to vote on their own.

Coincidences that can determine

Another problem that has arisen for Löfven after the Liberals' announcement is that he must convince the Left Party to vote on his budget if he returns as Prime Minister.

Without the Liberals, M, KD and SD will be bigger in the Riksdag than S, MP and C.

But after the harsh tone of the last few days between the Left Party and the Center Party, it is not very easy to see how these parties could agree on a budget bill.

If Löfven does not manage to secure his budget, most say that there will be by-elections.

With today's distribution of seats in the Riksdag, it is namely difficult for the Moderate leader Ulf Kristersson to become prime minister.

His options consisting of M, KD, SD and L collect only 174 votes.

But here, too, coincidences could decide.

It is enough for a single member of parliament to change sides, for example the center-right party member Helena Lindahl, who already last time voted no to Löfven.

On the other hand, the possibility should not be ruled out that individual liberal members of parliament, who are critical of SD cooperation, will vote no to Kristersson.

"Extraval extremely rare"

A by-election could dissolve the political knots, but most opinion polls do not indicate that the outcome of an by-election would differ very much from the current parliamentary situation in the Riksdag.

But this is an uncertain conclusion.

Extra elections are extremely rare phenomena in Swedish politics.

The last time was in 1958. This means that we do not know much about how voters can be expected to act in a by-election.

One question is, of course, how high the turnout will be and how this can affect the outcome of the election.

Because even if an extra election is held in August or September, the regular election will be held in September next year.