An analysis has shown that the number of confirmed cases may increase rapidly if the competition is enforced amid rising opposition to the Tokyo Olympics in Japan.
According to NHK, a research team made up of associate professor Daisuke Tanaka, an associate professor at the University of Tokyo, recently predicted changes in confirmed cases when the Tokyo Olympics were held based on data obtained up to the 16th of this month.
Assuming that the Corona 19 emergency declaration is extended to the middle of next month and 600,000 people are vaccinated a day, it is assumed that half of the 105,000 people entering Japan, including athletes and officials during the tournament, have finished vaccination. Even so, it was analyzed that there is a possibility that the number of confirmed cases will increase rapidly due to the Olympics.
If the crowd increases by 10% during the event period due to active cheering or economic activity, there are 2,24 new confirmed cases per day in Tokyo at the beginning of September this year. If the Olympics are canceled, 617 confirmed cases are expected to be 3.3 times. The research team predicts that it will reach.
However, it was analyzed that the number of confirmed cases increased due to the direct cause of the athletes or officials entering the country from overseas is about 15 people a day in Tokyo.
When the number of people increasing due to the Olympics is only 2%, it is estimated that in early September, the number of new confirmed cases in Tokyo per day will be 858, 1.4 times that of canceling the Olympics.
This analysis was conducted excluding the effects of the Indian mutant virus, which is known to be highly infectious.
As voices of opposition and concern about the Olympics are growing, in a survey conducted by Tokyo Shimbun and others on the 22nd to 23rd of Tokyo metropolitan voters, 60.2% of respondents said that the Tokyo Olympics should be canceled.