News 1+1丨Will the epidemic in Anhui and Liaoning continue to spread on a large scale? Why is the vaccination rate in my country still not high?
From 0-19 o'clock on May 17th, Liaoning added 4 local confirmed cases.
There are still new local confirmed cases, ongoing traceability of the circulation, loopholes in grassroots epidemic prevention that still need to be vigilant, and the sudden increase in people's willingness to vaccinate after this round of the epidemic. This epidemic occurred in Anhui and Liaoning. What are the issues worthy of our attention and discussion?
Traceability: Where is patient zero?
On May 16, there were 3 newly confirmed cases in Liaoning and 2 newly confirmed cases in Anhui.
As of 19:00 on the 17th, Liaoning added 4 more local confirmed cases.
When the epidemic hits 2 provinces and 4 places, the concern of public opinion is still at the source.
How is the flow adjustment progressed?
Who is patient zero?
Where is the direction looking for?
The source of this local epidemic is likely to be in Yingkou, Liaoning
At present, experts have given a judgment. Although the first confirmed case of the local epidemic was from Lu'an, Anhui, the source of the epidemic was likely to spread from Yingkou, Liaoning.
In this regard, Wei Sheng, a professor in the Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics at the School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, said that he personally agrees with this judgment.
Wei Sheng:
①From the results of the local circulation, the cases all have a clear history of contact with the confirmed cases from Yingkou.
②Through the flow of screening cases in Yingkou, it was found that their onset time was earlier than that in other regions. Therefore, from the perspective of the entire epidemiological disease transmission chain, the source of this round of epidemic is likely to start in Yingkou, Liaoning.
How to treat the difficulty of the local epidemic situation?
Wei Sheng, professor of the Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology:
The flow adjustment work for this epidemic is a bit similar to "snowballing."
For example, after a case is discovered, the recipient is decrypted, and then the investigation of the contact person's close contact is continued.
In addition, we found that the earliest case of infection may be in mid-April, and almost a month has passed since the time of diagnosis. In addition, the movement of people during the May 1st period was particularly large, and the trajectory of some confirmed cases involved multiple provinces and cities. , There are many people in contact, so the flow of communication will be very difficult.
Is it likely that this local epidemic will be transmitted from person to person?
Wei Sheng, professor of the Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology:
Judging from the current evidence, it cannot be ruled out that people are infected by objects. The possibility of passing from person to person is higher than passing from person to person.
Therefore, at this stage, we still need to focus on personnel investigations, find the earliest cases, and then conduct epidemiological investigations.
On the other hand, even if it is transmitted from person to person, the person who was infected by the object must first be found, and then environmental sampling and virus sequencing can be performed to finally determine the mode of transmission.
Therefore, human-to-human transmission is still the main direction we need to find and focus on.
How to treat gene sequencing, no highly infectious variants have been found?
Wei Sheng, professor of the Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology: The
virus sequence was found through gene sequencing, and then compared with the sequence of the current major epidemic strains around the world, we can roughly determine the source of the virus .
If it is consistent with the epidemic strains currently circulating in a certain country, we can determine the direction of our investigation by tracing people or things from the area, and help us trace the source, adjust, and control.
In addition, with current gene sequencing, we can sequence the viruses and samples of multiple cases to determine whether this case comes from the same source of infection, which means that everyone is on the same transmission chain. It can play a very important role in our judgment of the development of the epidemic.
Do not register and report patients with fever? Be vigilant for problems that occur in the "sentinel points" of epidemic prevention and control
The responsibility for the first diagnosis is not fulfilled, supervision is not effective, small clinics cannot identify patients with fever at the first time, and individuals conduct diagnosis and treatment privately...
As an important "sentinel point" in the prevention and control of the epidemic, this epidemic has exposed problems and loopholes in primary medical institutions.
Will there be a large-scale spread of this epidemic?
Wei Sheng, professor of the Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology:
I personally think that there should be no large-scale spread, because after the outbreak, relevant measures have been quickly initiated in various places, including large-scale nucleic acid testing, Precise community prevention and control, as well as large-scale crowd screening.
Judging from the results, I think this epidemic has not yet reached a large-scale spreading stage, and we are likely to control the epidemic within the longest incubation period.
After this round of epidemic, people's willingness to vaccinate has increased sharply
After the outbreak of this round of the epidemic, a positive phenomenon is that the willingness of many urban residents to vaccinate rapidly increased. The number of new crown vaccine doses nationwide was also the highest in a single day on May 14th and 16th.
On the other hand, the number of inoculation doses in Anhui and Liaoning also lags behind the overall national level.
What kind of problems have been exposed by small clinics and individuals receiving fever patients without authorization
?
Wei Sheng, professor of the Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology:
China’s new crown epidemic is well controlled at this stage, and the people’s sense of security is high, which in turn will cause the implementation of various prevention and control measures. Issues that are not in place, such as failure to strictly observe the responsibility of the first consultation, including slack and careless daily work.
In fact, our country has already had a very good set of management regulations and requirements for fever clinics, including closed-loop management of fever clinic visits. This is also repeatedly emphasized, so I personally think that normalizing prevention and control still needs to emphasize, It is necessary to strengthen and increase the implementation of the responsibility for the first diagnosis, supervise the performance of duties, and strictly control the "sentinel point" of primary medical and health institutions.
"The government propaganda for half a year, is it better to be diagnosed for so-and-so for half a day?" How do you view the promotion of the local epidemic on vaccination?
Shao Yiming, a researcher of the Chinese Center for Disease Control
and Prevention, and
member of the Vaccine R&D Special Team of the Scientific Research Group:
Facts speak louder than words. In clinical trials and a large number of real-world studies, we have proved that the new coronavirus vaccine is effective in preventing, reducing and slowing the spread of the virus. Has an important role.
From the current point of view, the close-infected people in this round of the epidemic have not been vaccinated, which in turn illustrates the importance of vaccination. After the emergence of this local epidemic, the willingness of many urban residents to vaccinate has increased rapidly. A good sign.
How to judge the development trend of this round of epidemic?
Shao Yiming, a researcher of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and member of the Vaccine R&D Expert Team of the Scientific Research Group:
This local case occurred in two contexts: ①The recent outbreak of the epidemic in our neighboring countries, such as India.
②The large domestic population flow during the May 1st holiday.
Both of these points are very helpful to the rapid spread of the virus.
After the outbreak, although it was not discovered very early, the daily additions are still in the single digits. This shows that the response speed, tracking, and prevention and control measures of our disease control department are advancing very fast.
In addition, our population is constantly increasing the number of vaccination doses. These two reasons have caused the spread of this local epidemic to be doubled.
So I think this epidemic will precede the development of previous epidemics and be fully controlled as soon as possible.
Why is the vaccination rate in my country still not high? Is it a matter of public will? Or is there insufficient supply of vaccines?
Shao Yiming, a researcher at the China Centers for Disease Control and a member of the Vaccine R&D Special Team of the Scientific Research Team: There are
two factors. Most of the areas that focus on promoting vaccination in China can reach the vaccination target on time, but some areas that are not included in the key promotion The rate may be slower.
We have also observed that the people have several ideas:
①Do you think the vaccine has side effects, especially if domestic vaccines are not as good as foreign ones?
②I think the immunity will fade after vaccination, can I wait for a while?
③Some people feel that there is no epidemic in China and it is relatively safe.
These opinions lack scientific basis. First, a large amount of data shows that, in particular, many overseas countries continue to appreciate Chinese vaccines, including Chile, Brazil, and Indonesia. The vaccines have played a very important role in controlling the epidemic in their countries. The effect is very good.
Second, because we are using traditional mature technology, the side effects of the vaccine are also very small.
Third, the epidemic in our neighboring countries has risen, and the risk of transmission still exists. Everyone must actively vaccinate for the sake of individuals, families and society.