[Depth] "The average age of the population is 38.4 years", compared with the world, China is still young and strong
[Global Times Comprehensive Report] "The average age of our country’s population is 38.8 years old. Generally speaking, it is still very young. The United States is 38 years old, which is almost the same." A few days ago, Ning Ji, deputy leader of the Seventh National Census Leading Group of the State Council and Director of the National Bureau of Statistics At the press conference, Zhe made an analogy between China and the United States, and emphasized that "my country has a working age population of 880 million people between the ages of 16 and 59, and labor resources are still abundant."
The average age of the population in various countries, that is, the concept of "median age of the population", due to the different deadlines for various statistics, the data are slightly different, but the overall situation is clear.
At the end of 2020, a German website listed the "average age list" of major countries: Japan ranked first, followed by Germany, all over 45 years old; the average age in Western developed countries is generally higher, France 42.3 years old, the United Kingdom 40.5 years old ; The average age of India among the most populous countries is only 28.4 years old; the average age of some African countries is less than 20 years old.
The saying that "China is still young and strong" is very new, and it is also a powerful response to some Western public opinion exaggerating China's "demographic crisis" or hype "anti-aging into a new battlefield between China and the United States."
In the opinion of Chinese and foreign scholars interviewed by a reporter from the Global Times, the topic of comparing the average age of the population in various countries can remind China, which is still in the "light aging stage", to better deal with population and development issues.
The average age of the United States is 38 years old, and it is inseparable from immigrants
Talking about the average age of the population—the concept of “median age of the population” commonly used in academia, Tong Yufen, vice president of the Chinese Demographic Society and professor at the Capital University of Economics and Business, told the Global Times reporter that the entire population was sorted by age and lived in The age in the middle position is the median age, that is, half of the population is above this age and half of the population is below this age.
According to Tong Yufen, the level of a country’s “median population age” is consistent with the country’s level of development and aging. It is also a measure of aging-generally speaking, the higher the level of economic development, The higher the median age of the population, the deeper the population aging.
The median age of the population in European countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands, and Japan is generally high.
Tong Yufen believes that there are currently two main types of countries that are relatively "young and strong": one is underdeveloped and developing countries, such as some countries in Africa and South America, India, and Bangladesh, where the median age of the population is relatively low. , The degree of aging is low, it is a young country with abundant labor resources, which is suitable for its development level; the other is the United States, Australia, New Zealand and other developed countries that absorb a large number of immigrants, which are different from some European countries and Japan. By absorbing fresh "blood", it can also maintain a relatively young and vigorous state.
The median age of the population in these countries is not very high, mainly due to more international immigrants.
For example, as a country of immigrants, the United States has absorbed young immigrants from all over the world, especially developing countries; China is not a country of immigrants, and is still almost the same as the median age of the United States.
The topic of "the average age of the Chinese population is 38.8 years" has attracted widespread attention from the Russian media.
Russian Satellite News Agency quoted Andrei Ostrovsky, director of the China Center for Economic and Social Studies of the Far East Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, as saying: "In the past 10 years, despite the obvious trend of aging China’s population, in order to cope with the demographic challenge, China, which is transforming from the'world factory' to the'world market', is focusing on the development of science and technology." Russia's "Arguments and Facts" published on May 12 entitled "China still has a'population opportunity' for further stability and development" According to the article, China’s demographic advantage is expected to continue to increase as the “demographic dividend” turns into a “talent dividend” in the future.
The article also emphasizes: “It must be realized that China’s population situation is indeed facing more and more challenges. The birth rate is low and the country’s aging is still continuing. In fact, the decline in the birth rate and the increase in population aging are the world’s Both psychologically and politically, Chinese society is actively preparing for possible problems. For example, in response to an aging population, China is stimulating the consumption potential of the elderly. At the same time, China is also Talking about the topic of delayed retirement, of course, as long as their health conditions allow them to work. China’s urbanization process is accelerating. It can not only stimulate investment, but also increase demand. The huge population and the continuous increase of highly skilled professionals are still China An important driving force for social and economic development."
The Japanese media did not focus on the topic of "The average age of the Chinese population is similar to that of the United States." While the US population is growing slowly, China has a dominant position in the era of digital economy.
Therefore, when China and the United States are also facing the problem of labor "growth passivation", who can increase productivity will be the prerequisite for determining the outcome.
According to the data given by the U.S. Census Bureau, the median age of the U.S. population is between 38.4 and 38.7 years old, of which the population between 16 and 59 years old is between 190 million and 192 million.
At the time of the 2010 U.S. Census, this figure was 37.2 years old, which means that the average age of the U.S. population has increased by nearly 1.5 years in the past ten years.
In fact, American economists are also very concerned about how long the US "demographic dividend" can last.
Edwin Dolan, a PhD in Economics at Yale University, believes that one of the factors driving the growth of the US economy in the past is the growth of the working-age population.
Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the fertility rate in the United States has been declining, and the trend of declining newborn population coincides with the retirement time of the "post-war baby boom" birth population.
The continued decline in the newborn population and the accelerated aging of American society will severely affect the "demographic dividend" on which American economic growth is based.
The Washington Post reported that since 2010, the number of immigrants in the United States has declined due to the economic crisis and Trump's immigration restrictions.
If immigration decreases significantly, by 2050, the US population will become "Europeanized" and enter an aging society where population growth has stagnated.
In this context, the economic prosperity of the United States will end, and the annual growth rate will be less than 2% for a long time.
The Brookings Institution report believes that in order to ensure that the United States is "strong young and vigorous," attracting immigrants is the key to having a sufficient labor force in the future. The United States should increase the number of immigrants to three times the current number.
The "demographic dividend" may also become a "demographic bomb"
Russian Beacon Radio reported on February 18, 2021 that according to the 2020 demographic data released by the Russian National Bureau of Statistics, as of January 1, 2020, the average age of the Russian population is 40.23 years old.
Among them, Chechnya became the youngest region in Russia, with an average age of 28.68 years old, and the highest average age of Moscow residents, over 42 years old.
In 2020, the average age of the world’s population is 31 years old, and the average age of relatively poor African countries such as Somalia and Chad is less than 17 years old.
The report said that to a large extent, countries with a low "average age" are also countries with a higher birth rate, "a woman has five or six children."
The average age of the German population is close to 46 years old, the oldest in Europe.
A reporter from the "Global Times" visited the small German city of Bad Harzburg on the weekend and found that the people walking on the street were all elderly people, and the local economy also revolved around the elderly.
"Since the Second World War, the average age of almost all countries and regions has risen." Berlin population and development research scholar Olaf Polliger told reporters on the 16th that in general, the population of developed countries The average age is higher, while it is lower in developing countries.
Polliger also said that there are indeed fewer young people in many small towns in Germany. They prefer to move to larger cities with richer cultural life and easier jobs. This has caused nearly 90% of family businesses in Germany to close down. Or have to consider transferring.
Japan is a country where the average age of the population is quite high.
The "National Survey" report issued by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan in 2010 shows that in 1920, except for Okinawa Prefecture, the average age of the Japanese population was 26.7 years old; in 1935 it was 26.3 years old; during the period of rapid economic growth after the war, take 1975 data as an example. , The average age of the Japanese population is 32.5 years old; in 2001, the average age of the Japanese population has exceeded 40 years old, and it has been increasing year by year since then.
The period of rapid economic development in Japan was the beginning of "Tokyo Polarization".
With the influx of a large amount of labor from the local area into Tokyo, it also means the gradual decline of local cities, leading to differences in the level of regional economic development.
At present, the working-age population in Japan is 86.32 million, accounting for 64.92% of the total population, a decrease of 2.73% compared with 2011.
From a global perspective, the phenomenon of "fewer births" and "ageing" appeared relatively early in Japanese society. There are not all pessimistic voices in Japanese society regarding these difficult population problems.
Bank of Japan President Haruhiko Kuroda believes that with the increasing investment in labor equipment and software from all walks of life, as well as the continuous innovation of artificial intelligence and other technologies, Japan will still have the fastest increase in labor productivity among the G7 countries in the next few years.
India, the second most populous country in the world, is the country with the fastest growth rate of the global labor force, and India will be in a "young" state for a long time.
According to data released by the German statistical website Statista in 2020, the average age of the population of Brazil, a large South American country, is 33.5 years old, while the average age of the population of India is only 28.4 years old.
However, India’s “demographic dividend” has not yet fully exerted its due effectiveness.
On the contrary, rapid population growth also brings about various problems, such as resource shortages, food crisis, urbanization problems, and the gap between the rich and the poor, which restrict the development of India.
"India Express" recently reported that India’s population has increased by more than four times in the past 100 years, but the country cannot provide sufficient infrastructure and resources for such a large population.
What troubles India is the mismatch between the number of new jobs and the rate of population growth.
The Indian government has promulgated a large number of laws and regulations to promote employment, but the effect is not obvious.
In recent years, more and more rural Indians have gone to cities to find a way out.
However, "Global Times" reporters often see on the streets of major cities such as New Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, and Chennai that large numbers of young people gather together and do nothing.
Most of these people do not speak English and do not have any skills.
Polliger said that although India and many countries in Africa and the Middle East have a large population of young people, if these countries do not deal with their own development problems, the "demographic dividend" may also become a "demographic bomb" and even make the country poor. .
He believes that the population issue is the "top priority" and should be deployed in the long-term, but it should not be unfounded. The future development of science and technology and education investment will provide opportunities to solve the population problem.
The Austrian "Standard" recently analyzed that if governance is good, Africa will enjoy a "demographic dividend" in the next few decades.
In response to aging, China cannot follow the old Western path
After China released the census data, the US "Wall Street Journal" believed that China's population data was not so bad, the population did not decline, and the results of the data were more optimistic than originally expected.
For example, what is surprising is that China's population of 0-14 years old accounts for about 18%, an increase of 1.35 percentage points compared with 2010.
The Economist magazine also stated that as of 2020, China has 218 million university graduates, almost double the number in 2010. Even though the working-age population is declining, the improvement of skills makes the Chinese labor force stronger.
However, there are also Western media such as the US "New York Times" and German "Le Monde" with the title "Beijing's population problem-the time bomb of the world's major powers" to hype "China declines before it gets old."
Some media use "crisis" and "dilemma" to describe "the threat of population aging to China's economic growth is comparable to the situation in Europe and the United States."
But in the opinion of the Berlin scholar Polliger, compared with European countries, China is still in a period of "strong young age", and its population "flexibility" is also significantly higher than that of Western countries, including the United States, where the average population age is currently about the same.
He believes that China's "demographic dividend" and the aging crisis coexist, but the key depends on how the country governs and responds.
At present, China is moving in the right direction.
There is still room for improvement in China's fertility rate, and we can learn from European or Russian incentive measures, such as the issuance of childcare benefits.
"Some Western media hype about China's population crisis, which is very unkind and unscientific." Tong Yufen said, judging from the World Bank's aging data in 2019, Japan's population aged 65 and over accounted for 28% of the total population. , Germany 22%, France 20%, the United States also has 16%, and my country’s population of 65 years and over will account for 13.5% in 2020.
Although this figure is higher than the world average of 9%, it is actually far below that of many developed countries in the West. This is an objective fact.
However, in view of the rapid development of aging in China, Tong Yufen believes that as a developing country, with the level of economic and social development still to be improved, we must take precautions for the aging problem and "must avoid following the old Western path. ".
She emphasized that my country has not yet entered a deeply aging society, and there is still time to make many institutional preparations, such as improving the social security system and providing more and more complete social and community elderly care services.
In addition, China has a vast territory. Unlike some highly aging countries in Japan and Europe, my country also has room for adjustment and adjustment in its internal space. For example, when a certain region has an overly aging population and lack of labor resources, it can be achieved through population mobility. The optimization and adjustment of the population in space can alleviate the aging problem to a certain extent.
[Global Times Special Correspondent Lin Ri Jiang Feng Aoki Global Times reporter Hao Shuangyan Yuan Jirong Liu Yupeng in the United States, Japan and Germany]