Milan (AFP)

As the biggest beneficiary of the European recovery plan, Italy has no room for error: under the watchful eye of Brussels, Mario Draghi will present to Parliament on Monday his roadmap to reinvigorate an economy devastated by the coronavirus pandemic.

In order to support this long-awaited resumption of activity, Italy also reopens disaster-stricken sectors such as restaurants, cinemas or concert halls on Monday, even if the third wave of the epidemic is far from over.

"The European recovery plan represents an opportunity not to be missed for development, investments and reforms for Italy", commented the head of government in the preface to his project obtained by AFP, which must be presented Saturday in the Council of Ministers.

Mario Draghi is banking on an ambitious investment plan of 221.5 billion euros over six years, of which 191.5 billion euros financed by the EU, focused on digitization, ecological transition with emphasis on hydrogen and infrastructure, especially in the rail sector.

Italy intends to catch up with its backlog in terms of high and very high speed internet, in particular the fixed network, with the objective of extending it to the entire territory by 2026.

Priority will also be given to the employment of women and young people, the first to lose their jobs due to the pandemic, and in Mezzogiorno, the underprivileged south of the peninsula, which will receive 40% of the funds.

"Italy's credibility is at stake. The risk is to end up in four years with unproductive expenditure that the European Commission will not want to reimburse and with an even higher level of debt," commented to AFP Tommaso Monacelli, professor of economics at Bocconi University.

For example, "it is not enough to foresee the Naples-Bari motorway. It is necessary to include objectives of economic growth and jobs ... in clear, if these objectives are not reached, the cost of the motorway will not be reimbursed "by the European Union, he explained.

- 'Like an orchestra' -

The stimulus package crystallized tensions in Italy, even causing the fall of Giuseppe Conte's government in January.

Former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi had withdrawn his party, Italia Viva, from the coalition, judging that the plan project lacked scope.

"We must show the" frugal "countries that we know how to use the funds wisely. From the design phase to the implementation, everything must work in a coordinated manner, like an orchestra", noted the Minister of Economic Development Giancarlo Giorgetti. .

To appease the rebellion of the northern states, known as "frugal", led by Austria and the Netherlands, Brussels made the granting of the 750 billion euros provided for by the vast European common debt project conditional on the achievement of reforms, some of which may be unpopular.

"Mario Draghi is at the head of a government of national unity, which gives him significant leeway to carry out the necessary reforms without being hampered by the fragmentation of parties in Italy," Jesus told AFP. Castillo, economist at Natixis.

As soon as he took office, Mario Draghi had spinned the future projects of the government: gradually reducing taxes, fighting against tax evasion, reducing bureaucracy or even putting an end to the slowness of justice.

- Lack of productivity -

All these reforms were urged by the European Union in its recommendations to Italy in 2019.

Brussels also singled out "excessive macroeconomic imbalances", in particular "high debt levels" and "persistent sluggishness in productivity".

From 1999 to 2019, GDP per hour worked increased by 4.2% in Italy, while in France and Germany, this indicator increased by 21.2% and 21.3% respectively, notes Mr. Draghi in his project.

For growth too, the observation is overwhelming: between 1999 and 2019, Italy's GDP only increased by 7.9%.

At the same time, in Germany, France and Spain, the increase was respectively 30.2%, 32.4% and 43.6%.

Italy, which saw its GDP plunge 8.9% in 2020, is banking on a 4.5% rebound in 2021. The stimulus plan should bring "at least 3.6 percentage points" by 2026 , according to Mr. Draghi.

"What is essential for Italy is to finally enter a virtuous circle of growth", commented Giuliano Noci, professor of strategy at the Polytechnic of Milan.

And "it is growth that will pay off the debt."

© 2021 AFP