[U.S. presidential election magnifier] Where will the main vote of the competition decide the 2020 US presidential election?

By the afternoon of the 30th (local time), four days ahead of the US presidential election, the number of voters who participated in the pre-voting was 86.8 million, nearly doubled from 47 million four years ago.

It is 63% of the total voters who participated in the 2016 presidential election.

During the last weekend ahead of the presidential election on November 3, Republican President Trump and Democratic Candidate Biden took responsibility for the Corona 19 incident, where the number of confirmed cases exceeded 9 million, and set out to catch the vote of the contested states that decided to win this presidential election. .

The competition state is a region where the gap in the approval ratings between candidates is not large as white and people of color, low-educated and high-educated people, rich and poor, urban and rural, and so on, and the candidates for each election change back and forth like a swing. .

The competition between the Republican and Democratic parties in the U.S. presidential election is often decided not in the garden of each party, which has a clear and seldom changing propensity to support candidates, but in the swing state, where the candidates for support change every time the election. The state is focusing on last-minute advertisements and field campaigns.

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton won 286 million more votes than Donald Trump, who won 48.0% in the general voter's vote, winning 45.9%, but it was a slight margin difference in the six competing states such as Florida and Michigan, but all were secured by losing. The number of electors was only 232 out of 538.

On the other hand, President Trump, who broke expectations and won most of the contending states, was elected by securing a 306 electoral team, 74 or more than Clinton.

The main competition states in the United States are located in the three states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, located in the so-called Rust Belt area near the Great Lakes, and in the warm Sun Belt region south of 37 degrees north latitude. Three states are counted: Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina.

There are 101 electors in all of these six states.

Considering that President Trump had 74 more electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election, leaving the rest of the world as they were, if only 38 more biden candidates, or about half of Biden's candidates from these six competing states, were obtained, the magic number of 270 electors needed for the election. Will be secured.

According to the results of various polls as of October 31 by RealCearPolitics (RCP), a website dedicated to elections, President Trump's approval rating was 45.9 with Democrat Biden's average approval rating of 48.9% in six competing states. It was found to be 3.1 percentage points ahead of the percentage.

In addition to the six major contenders, President Trump narrowed the gap in Texas, Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio, where President Trump won the 2016 presidential election by a big difference to Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. Caught an emergency.

These four states had 78 electoral votes, totaling 179 people with the six competing states.

President Trump beat Georgia and Iowa by 5.1 percentage points and 9.5 percentage points, respectively, in the 2016 presidential election, but the RCP's statistics show that candidate Biden is 0.8 percentage points and 1.2 percentage points ahead.

In Texas, where Trump won by 9.0 percentage points in the 2016 presidential election as a conservative shout, the gap narrowed to 2.3 percentage points, and in Ohio, where Trump won by 8.1 percentage points four years ago, President Trump and Candidate Biden's approval ratings fell. It turned out to be the same.

It is also predicted that if President Trump loses to these four and six contending states, the electoral corps may plunge to 100 and record a devastating defeat.

However, there are many places where there is a black and white confrontation, and the observation that the final result is to open the ballot box is gaining strength.

In fact, the closer to the November 3 presidential election, the gap between Republican President Trump and Democrat Biden's approval ratings narrows.

In particular, in the 2016 presidential election, all candidates Hillary Clinton took the lead in the polls of the three contenders of the Rust Belt before the voting, but considering that they all lost in the actual vote, they supported Trump while supporting Trump as well as how many supporters participated in the vote. The number of so-called'Shy Trump' that is not revealed is expected to be an important factor in deciding the success in this presidential election.

In fact, four states, which were classified as non-competitive states, including Texas (2.3% points), Georgia (0.8% points), Iowa (1.2% points), and Ohio (tie rate), have many public opinion polls within the margin of error. The expression is correct.

Of the six competing states, three states, including North Carolina (1.2 percentage points), Florida (1.2 percentage points), and Arizona (0.6 percentage points) in the southern sunbelt, are also fighting due to differences within the margin of error, making it easy to predict the final winner. not.

The Rustbelt area near the Great Lakes, such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, is an industrial zone and has traditionally been called the Blue Wall, which is highly supported by the Democratic Party because of the large number of workers in labor unions.

In the 2016 presidential election, President Trump broke expectations and secured a crucial bridgehead for the presidential election by winning all three of these Rustbelt competition states.

President Trump attacked Hillary Clinton, claiming that Rustbelt was losing competitiveness due to Democratic globalization and trade liberalization (FTA), and succeeded in overturning the hearts of the voters here.

In this presidential election, Biden, unlike Hillary, who was neglected in the Rustbelt area, is working hard to raise the approval rating of the Rustbelt area by establishing an election headquarters in Pennsylvania.

Biden criticized Trump's erroneous response to Corona 19 and promoted his job creation plan, while it was the then vice president who saved the US auto industry and maintained jobs, such as Ford and Chrysler, who were on the verge of exit after the 2008 financial crisis He is calling for support from the voters in the Rustbelt area.

Among the three contending states of Rustbelt, Michigan is a representative region that must be secured to win this presidential election.

In the 2016 presidential election, President Trump won with just 10,704 more votes, or 0.3 percentage points more than Hillary's.

In Michigan, recent polls are Biden's dominance.

In connection with the attempted kidnapping of Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer earlier last month, President Trump did not directly criticize the white right-wing group that conspired to kidnap, but rather called Governor Whitmer as a ``horrible person,'' causing controversy. It is working in favor of Candidate Biden.

In Michigan, especially in Detroit, which has a densely populated and Democratic approval rating, Biden's overwhelmingly many votes are a win.

However, the outcome of the election may vary depending on which candidate's supporter has more voters to vote.

Michigan is a representative region of many whites with a high school diploma or less, who have high support for President Trump.

In addition to these bone marrow supporters, USA Today analyzed that if he could raise approval ratings in the old industrial complexes and rural areas, President Trump would be a winner.

As of 2016, just before the Great War, Clinton was found to be 4.8 percentage points ahead, but in the actual voting, he lost by 0.3 percentage points.

As of October 31, the approval rating is 6.5 percentage points ahead of Candidate Biden.

Wisconsin is where Democratic President Obama won the 2012 presidential election, but Republican President Trump won the 2016 presidential election.

It is a place where opposing classes and lifestyles coexist, such as urban and rural, high-educated and low-educated people, and the direction of the votes of these different voters is expected to influence the election results.

In terms of demographic structure, Wisconsin could be called President Trump's garden, as white voters who did not attend four-year colleges account for about half of all voters.

However, it is one of the places where Corona 19 has spread the most this fall, and is where the black young man Jacob Blake died in a police shooting.

Biden's advantage is that the voters here in 2016 had a strong antipathy against Hillary Clinton.

In connection with the protests triggered by the death of a black young man, Jacob Blake, who was killed by police shooting, voters also criticized President Trump as a ``terrorism act'', taking the plunder of some protesters into question rather than condemning police violence and racist acts. It is also noted how it will affect them.

In recent polls, Candidate Biden continues to lead Trump.

Candidate Biden is expected to win in Wisconsin by how many more votes he will get than Trump in Milwaukee, a large city with many blacks and Hispanics, and how many more votes Trump will get than Biden in rural areas. .

Just before the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton was 5.5 percentage points ahead of the current election, but lost 0.7 percentage points in the actual election.

As of October 31, the Democratic Party candidate Biden was found to be 6.4 percentage points ahead.

Pennsylvania, which has a corps of 20 electors, is regarded as a key area for winning or losing an election, as it is called the "stone of the presidential election."

There is Scranton, where Biden was born, and Trump graduated from Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and argued for sustenance.

The Republican candidate's victory in the 2016 presidential election was the first time since Vice President George W. Bush's victory in the 1988 presidential election over Democratic Party Governor Michael Dukhakis.

But in the 2018 midterm elections, Democratic Governor Tom Wolf was again elected.

Biden is dominant in Philadelphia, a city of brotherly love, where many people live, Pittsburgh, the steel city, and southeastern Pennsylvania.

White women with college graduates and above, and new generations outside of Philadelphia, are also leaning toward Biden.

Candidate Trump has received high support in a wide range of areas, including rural and urban areas.

President Trump is calling for support, saying he is the one who will save the economy in southwest and northeastern Pennsylvania, which are struggling.

Voters' reaction to traditional issues such as gun ownership restrictions and abortion bans is also drawing attention.

Just before the 2016 presidential election, four years ago, Hillary was 2.6 percentage points ahead and lost by 0.7 percentage points in the actual presidential election.

As of October 31, Democratic candidate Biden was 3.6 percentage points ahead.

North Carolina, which President Trump frequently visits, is home to a corps of 15 electors, and is one of the most notable competition areas in the Midwest.

It is not red for the Republican Party or blue for the Democratic Party, but it is called the Purple State.

In 2008, President Obama of the Democratic Party won with a gap of 0.3 percentage points, but in 2012, after giving it to Mitt Romney of the Republican Party with a difference of 2 percentage points, in the 2016 presidential election, President Trump of the Republican Party won a relatively large difference of 3.7 percentage points. Won by

However, due to the 3rd party candidate, the approval rating did not exceed 50% for any candidate.

In cities, the approval rate for the Democrats is high, and in the countryside, the approval rate for the Republicans is high.

In the 2016 presidential election, President Trump secured an electoral corps by winning a large margin in rural areas.

It is also a variable that the Democratic Party's approval rate is rising in the outskirts of the city, where the approval rate for the Republican Party has recently been high.

At the present time before the 2016 presidential election, Republican President Trump was 0.8 percentage points ahead and won by 3.7 percentage points in the actual presidential election.

As of October 31, the Democratic Party candidate Biden was found to be 1.2 percentage points ahead.

It is a traditional Republican bullish region where Republican candidates have won all presidential elections except for the 1996 presidential election since the election of President Eisenhower in 1952.

However, in the midterm elections in 2018, the democratic senator was elected for the first time since 1988.

In recent polls, Candidate Biden is being classified as a contested area, as it appears to be ahead of President Trump.

This place, where President Trump won the 2016 presidential election with a 3.5 percentage point gap, is a place where immigrants from all over the country flock, especially hispanics with a tendency to support Democrats.

It is also an area with many moderate-minded voters.

While the Democratic Party's approval rating is high in Phoenix and Tucson, cities with a large influx of new populations, mainly young people, Republican approval rates are still high in rural areas.

Recently, the Democratic Party's approval rating has been increasing among the elderly and white people.

Given that education and health issues are the concern of Democratic supporters and moderate-minded supporters, while the concerns of Republican supporters are immigrants, it will not be easy for President Trump to maintain the dominance of the 2016 presidential election. USA Today predicted.

Right before the 2016 presidential election, President Trump of the Republican Party was 4.0 percentage points ahead and won by 3.5 percentage points in the actual presidential election.

As of October 31, the approval rating is falling behind with Democrat Biden's candidate, with President Trump leading 0.6 percentage points.

Florida has the largest number of electoral votes among the six competing states, making it a place where tensions cannot be relaxed until the end of the race.

President Trump's false diagnosis and response to Corona 19 lead to Biden's lead, but there is no guarantee of victory.

In the 2000 presidential election, President George W. Bush won the Democratic Party Pro Al Gore with only 537 votes.

From 1996 to the last presidential election, the gap between the first and second place candidates averaged 2.3 percentage points, making it the smallest among 50 states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary candidates were ahead of the approval ratings until the last minute, but eventually lost, and it is classified as the place where the presidential elections won or lost along with Ohio in the last sixth presidential election.

Democrats dominate in urban areas such as Miami, Palm Beach, Tampa and Orlando, while Republicans dominate in the southwest and north.

There are many Democratic supporters in the Hispanic family, while Republican supporters are many among Cuban-Americans.

In recent years, among Hispanics, support for the Democratic Party has been declining, and among the elderly, the Republican approval rate has been decreasing.

With President Trump's remarks, "A US soldier is a loser," it is expected that the approval rating for President Trump will drop in the northern Florida belt, where five US military units from Jacksonville to Pensacola are located.

The turnout of black people in the northern regions is also expected to have a significant impact on the election results.

Right before the 2016 presidential election, Democrat Hillary Clinton leads the approval rating by 1.2 percentage points, and in the actual presidential election, President Trump won by 1.2 percentage points.

As of October 31st, candidate Biden's approval rating is shown to have advanced by 1.2 percentage points.