The number of PLA warships and land-based conventional missiles catch up with the US military?

The 200-page "Report on China's Military Power" Plays Word Games

　　[Global Times Special Correspondent Li Qiang, Global Times Correspondent Liu Yang] Editor's note: On September 2, Beijing time, the US Department of Defense announced the 2020 China Military Power Report.

This report disregarded the facts and exaggerated the Chinese military threat.

The report claims that China has surpassed the United States in naval size, land-based medium- and long-range missiles and integrated air defense systems, and the PLA has far surpassed the Taiwan military.

However, Chinese experts believe that many of the comparisons in the report are just playing word games, but they are quite deceptive.

The largest Chinese navy in the world?

　　The electronic version of the new report obtained by a reporter from the Global Times shows that the number of pages in the report has increased significantly this year.

The 2019 report has 136 pages, and the 2020 report has 200 pages.

Compared with last year's edition, the 2020 edition has an extra chapter "The Mission, Tasks, and Modernization of China's Armed Forces in the'New Era'". This chapter occupies 56 pages.

　　In this chapter, the report emphasizes that the PLA continues to make significant progress, implement major structural reforms, and enhance its own joint operations capabilities.

The report believes that several Chinese military capabilities have reached or even surpassed the United States.

The first is naval power.

According to the report, China has the largest navy in the world, with a total combat power of approximately 350 surface ships and submarines, including more than 130 major surface combat ships.

As of the beginning of 2020, the United States has about 293 surface combat ships.

The report also believes that China is the world's largest ship producer and is also enhancing shipbuilding capabilities, especially the ability to build various types of naval vessels.

　　The report believes that the Chinese submarine force is still the top priority of China's modernization.

According to the report, the PLA Navy is currently equipped with 4 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (there are two more under construction), 6 nuclear-powered attack submarines and 50 diesel-electric attack submarines.

In the 1920s, the Chinese Navy may maintain 65 to 70 submarines, replacing old equipment at a close to one-to-one ratio.

China will continue to increase conventional submarines capable of launching advanced anti-ship cruise missiles.

Since the middle of the last century, the Chinese Navy has purchased several Russian-made Kilo-class ships, several of which can launch anti-ship cruise missiles.

In these years, Chinese shipyards have delivered a large number of Type 039 and Type 039A/B submarines with AIP power plants.

It is estimated that by 2025, China will produce more 039A/B submarines.

　　The report stated that the People's Liberation Army is still drawing up a huge surface ship construction plan to produce new guided missile cruisers, guided missile destroyers and frigates.

These equipment will greatly improve the navy's air defense, anti-ship and anti-submarine capabilities, and is essential for the Chinese Navy's activities beyond the coverage of the PLA's land-based air defense system.

The Type 055 destroyer can carry a large number of weapons, including anti-ship cruise missiles, surface-to-air missiles, anti-submarine weapons, and anti-ship ballistic missiles that may be put into use.

According to this statement, it seems that China has become a stronger "military threat" than the United States, but the truth is far from this.

　　An anonymous Chinese military expert said in an interview with the Global Times that Americans are actually playing word games.

For example, even if according to the report, China has more surface ships than the U.S. Navy, the number of large surface ships is far smaller than that of the United States.

The United States has 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, while China has only two conventionally-powered aircraft carriers. The number of large destroyers and large nuclear-powered submarines is far less than that of the United States. This has not yet taken into account the technological gap between the two countries.

Four modes of rendering the PLA "attack Taiwan"

　　Recently, US warships and aircraft have moved frequently in the direction of the Taiwan Strait, and the contents of the report concerning Taiwan have attracted much attention.

The report blatantly talked about the comparison of Taiwan's naval power, saying that Taiwan's naval power is unbalanced and the gap continues to widen. The US must continue to sell arms to Taiwan to ensure Taiwan's "self-defense capability."

　　Taiwan's "Central News Agency" quoted the content of the new US report as saying that the People's Liberation Army has still not given up its military attack on Taiwan, and believes that reliable military deterrence is essential to maintaining political progress and preventing "Taiwan independence."

Taiwan media said that the US report believes that the People's Liberation Army may adopt four operational routes including naval and air blockade, limited military strength or mandatory options, air and missile attacks, and the occupation of Taiwan.

The naval and air blockade includes cutting off Taiwan’s important imports and forcing Taiwan to yield, accompanied by large-scale missile attacks and the seizure of offshore islands. In terms of limited military strength and coercive options, the PLA may take limited military actions to attack infrastructure or engage in various open and secret activities. Combine them to trigger panic and reduce the people’s confidence in the Taiwan authorities. In terms of air and missile attacks, China may use missiles to attack Taiwan’s air defense systems such as air bases and radar stations to weaken Taiwan’s defense capabilities.

　　In the "Capture of Taiwan" section, the report stated that the most concerned is the joint island landing operation, which breaks through or circumvents coastal defenses, builds beachheads at the north and south ends of Taiwan's west coast, transports personnel and materials and launches attacks.

However, the report also stated that large-scale amphibious landing operations are one of the most complicated and difficult military operations. The occupation of Taiwan may also attract international intervention, coupled with the complexity of military consumption and urban street fighting.

Even if the People's Liberation Army successfully landed in Taiwan, it would face major political and military risks.

　　The report also analyzed Taiwan’s defense capabilities.

According to the report, Taiwan has historically enjoyed military advantages in cross-strait comparisons, including technological advantages and inherent geographical advantages of the island, but the mainland is committed to promoting military modernization and weakening Taiwan's military advantages.

Although Taiwan has taken important steps to bridge the growing military gap, Taiwan still faces many challenges in military equipment and combat readiness.

　　According to the report, China's defense budget continues to increase, and by 2019 it is 15 times that of Taiwan, most of which is concentrated on the development of the ability to "army" Taiwan.

The US continues to sell arms to Taiwan in accordance with the "Taiwan Relations Act" to ensure that Taiwan maintains sufficient self-defense capabilities.

Conventional missile strength catch up with the United States?

　　According to this military power report, China's land-based ballistic missile and air defense missile systems have "caught up and surpassed the United States" at least in number.

　　With regard to land-based conventional ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, the report stated that China has "developed" conventional missile forces without being bound by any international agreement.

China has thousands of land-based ballistic missiles (GLBM) and ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCM) with a range between 500 and 5500 kilometers.

According to the report, the PLA’s conventional missiles include CSS-6 (Dongfeng-15) short-range ballistic missiles, CSS-7 (Dongfeng-11) short-range ballistic missiles, CSS-11 (Dongfeng-16) ballistic missiles, and CSS-5 (Dongfeng-21) Medium-range ballistic missiles and Dongfeng-26 long-range ballistic missiles, and Changjian-10 (Dongfeng-10) ground-launched cruise missiles.

　　According to the report, the Dongfeng-21D has a range of more than 1,500 kilometers and is equipped with a mobile reentry warhead that can quickly reload missiles in the field.

The Dongfeng-26 missile can quickly replace conventional warheads and nuclear warheads, and can conduct precision strikes on targets in the Western Pacific, Indian Ocean and South China Sea.

In addition, the PLA is developing and testing several improved missiles to counter the enemy's anti-missile system.

China currently focuses on the development and testing of hypersonic glide warheads.

China also demonstrated the Dongfeng-17 missile for the first time in the 2019 military parade.

　　The report believes that China's advanced long-range ground-to-air system is one of the largest in the world, including the S-400, S-300 and domestically-made systems developed by Russia.

These air defense missile systems are part of the PLA’s powerful integrated air defense system.

However, Chinese experts say this method of comparison is quite confusing.

Although China has more land-based medium-range, medium- and long-range missiles and models than the United States, the United States has a large number of sea-based and air-based medium-range cruise missiles.

Moreover, the US Navy's "Tomahawk" cruise missile alone may exceed the sum of China's land-based medium- and medium-range missiles mentioned above, that is, thousands.

Moreover, the US sea-based and land-based cruise missiles can be carried by various platforms for global strikes.

China's land-based missiles can only be based on its own territory.

As for the integrated air defense system, this is a defensive weapon and will not actively threaten any country or region.

The United States does not need so many land-based air defense systems. This is based on the strong air power of the United States. The US ground forces and the United States are relatively less likely to encounter air strikes. Therefore, the development of ground air defense systems has not received sufficient attention.

Hype China to strengthen its "global presence" ambitions

　　In the 2019 edition of the "China Military Power Report" there is a chapter titled "Combat Capabilities Along China's Periphery", and by the 2020 edition, it becomes "The People's Liberation Army's growing global presence." The report exaggerates "China is seeking to build a stronger overseas presence." Logistics and infrastructure to achieve the projection and maintenance of military power at greater distances."

　　According to the report, in addition to the current base in Djibouti, China is likely to be considering and planning more overseas military logistics facilities to support naval, air and ground forces operations.

According to the report, countries that China may have considered include Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the UAE, Kenya, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola and Tajikistan.

The PLA’s focus is on China’s maritime lines of communication to the Strait of Hormuz, Africa and the Pacific Islands.

According to the report, the PLA’s global military logistics network may interfere with US military operations and increase the flexibility of China’s offensive operations against the United States.

　　A Chinese military expert interviewed by a "Global Times" reporter said that the above chapter ignores facts.

The reports in these contents about China's search for more overseas bases all use speculative expressions such as "possible, very likely", which is obviously a catch-up.