Belarus: an agitated presidential campaign

Text by: Étienne Bouche

The presidential election of August 9 was to be a formality for Alexander Lukashenko who, after 26 years at the head of the country, is seeking a sixth term. Only, the strong man of Minsk is confronted with a popular distrust of an unprecedented scale. The main dissident candidates were ousted from the competition. The fairness of the elections has always been contested since the coming to power of Alexander Lukashenko in 1994.

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From our regional correspondent, Étienne Bouche

In the past, Lukashenko was a popular leader. He embodied enviable stability and prosperity in the post-Soviet space. Today, he is nicknamed "  Sacha 3 %  ", the score he would get if the electoral game was not distorted. The cup is full for Belarusian citizens who aspire more than ever to political change.

Its contested management of the coronavirus and the significant deterioration of the economy further aggravated its unpopularity. And for many Belarusians, the only way to campaign against him has been to sponsor other candidates, whoever they are. Then several personalities emerged. The government became afraid and preferred to dismiss these opponents .

Former banker Babariko arrested

Court cases have indeed descended on three of them: Mikola Statkevitch, a historical figure the opposition, Sergei Tikhanovski, an incisive YouTuber, and Viktor Babariko, whose arrest caused a scandal a few days ago. This was undoubtedly the most dangerous profile for Lukashenko: Viktor Babariko did not come from the traditional opposition, he was director of Belgazprombank, a subsidiary of the Russian giant Gazprom. Several employees of this bank were arrested during a raid. Investigators say they suspect a fraud and money laundering case organized by Viktor Babariko.

President Lukashenko not only accused his opponent of wanting to privatize the country, but also of being supported by Russia. This latest attack, Alexander Lukashenko used it repeatedly against his opponents. And this rhetoric reveals the tense relations that the country maintains with its traditional ally.

Haunted by a Ukrainian revolution

President Lukashenko assured that the opposition was financed by "  Russian oligarchs  ". He presents himself as the guarantor of national independence - he has also changed the government in this sense - and willingly plays this Russian card. He knows that the majority of the population rejects the integration project drawn up by the Kremlin . But he also knows that the balance of power with Moscow is uneven and that the country is very dependent on Russia, particularly in the energy field. Its powerful neighbor provides essential economic outlets.

Under these conditions, Lukashenko does not really know on which foot to dance. His obsession is a new Maidan , a reference to the revolution in Ukraine in 2014. It has not escaped his notice that in post-Soviet space, new faces have appeared: Zelensky in Ukraine, Pachinian in Armenia. According to some observers, Lukashenko may in spite of himself need the support of the Kremlin. He is expected this Wednesday, June 24 in Moscow on the occasion of the military parade commemorating the victory over Nazi Germany.

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• Belarus
• Alexander Lukashenko

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