Iowa has completely redistributed the cards. Pete Buttigieg created the surprise, beating Bernie Sanders by a hair (26.2% against 26.1% of the delegates, according to results which still have to be approved), and Joe Biden bit the dust at a mediocre 4th place. The former vice president is already back to the wall, while Sanders and Buttigieg are racing ahead of the polls in New Hampshire. The televised debate this Friday evening, pending Tuesday's election, promises to be hot.
100% of Iowa Caucus results are IN
Buttigieg: 26.2%
Sanders: 26.1%
Warren: 18%
Biden: 15.8%
Klobuchar: 12.3% https: //t.co/YsMVtflaSK
Joe Biden has no room for error
Joe Biden knew he was probably not going to win Iowa. But by finishing 4th, the one who was until now the big favorite of the polls despite his recurring blunders, his failed debates and the lack of enthusiasm of his supporters, falters. Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium puts it into perspective: “Since 2000, the candidate who won the nomination has finished in the top 4 in Iowa and was in the top 4 in the national polls. The only candidates who meet these criteria are Sanders, Biden and Warren. "
Joe Biden is going to play big in New Hampshire next Tuesday: he is currently in 3rd position, according to the latest poll from Monmouth University, behind Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. From the start, his campaign presented South Carolina (February 29) as its “firewall”, thanks to minorities, among whom Joe Biden remains the most popular after eight years as vice-president of Barack Obama. What serve as a launching pad, three days before "Super Tuesday", March 3, where a dozen states vote. "One thing is certain, if he does not win in South Carolina, his campaign is over," predicts Doug Heye, former director of communications for the Republican Party. But Joe Biden has a much more immediate problem: lack of money, when Bernie Sanders just raised $ 25 million in January.
Bernie Sanders, the new favorite
Certainly, Pete Buttigieg claimed victory in Iowa. In fact, the two candidates are almost equal (pending verifications in certain districts) and will leave with the same number of national delegates (12 or 13 each). In New Hampshire, the Vermont senator almost plays at home. And it seems to be alone to be solid in all categories: national and regional surveys, finance, logistics and enthusiasm. In the FiveThirtyEight site model, he now leads the race, with a 45% chance of winning the nomination.
But as Trump redoubles his attacks on "socialist" health reform championed by Sanders and Warren, Joe Biden seems to have rushed into the breach, warning: "If Senator Sanders is the nominee, every Democratic candidate (in Congress and local polls) must bear its label. To be able to say that the Democratic Party is `` socialist '' is what Donald Trump dreams of. "
Buttigieg goes up, but he will have a hard time being the new Obama
"Mayor Pete" had bet everything on Iowa, and it paid off. With a formidable organization on the ground, he managed to create surprise and pose as the candidate for renewal. What to follow in Obama's footsteps? "Its biggest problem is the lack of support among minorities, it is generally unacceptable in the south of the country," warns Doug Heye. But if he manages to finish second in New Hampshire, his rating will go up a little more. And the one who has just celebrated his 38th birthday could take advantage of a Biden collapse to pose as an alternative to the moderate Democrats worried about a Sanders candidacy.
Warren stuck behind Sanders
Elizabeth Warren remains stable at 15% in national polls. But his biggest problem is called Bernie Sanders. There is only room for a progressive candidate in this primary, and if it ends up in places of honor on the first four ballots, it will find it harder and harder to exist.
Michael Bloomberg takes off (but leaves far away)
He spends countless times - more than $ 200 million already - on television spots harassing Donald Trump. With a fortune estimated at 60 billion dollars, the former mayor of New York enjoys unlimited means. With a late candidacy, however, he had to skip the first four elections, and hopes to start again from Super Tuesday. Passing the bar of 1,990 delegates (the absolute majority) sounds like an almost impossible mission, but he is banking on another scenario: that of a contested convention where no one would have enough delegates. According to FiveThirtyEight, there is now a one in four chance that this will happen. If Pete Buttigieg has not managed to keep the distance, Bloomberg could then pose as a centrist bulwark to Bernie Sanders. With the risk that the Democratic family will tear each other apart… to the great happiness of Donald Trump.
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"Pete Buttigieg embodies renewal, and he is twice as young as all of his competitors"
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Democratic Party leader calls for review of Iowa results
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