Who will face Donald Trump on November 3? After more than six months of campaign and seven sometimes heated television debates, the Democratic primary enters the heart of the matter with the first poll, which is held in Iowa, Monday. The race has already done damage: of the twenty candidates who dreamed of the White House, almost half threw in the towel, including Kamala Harris, Beto O'Rourke and Cory Booker. While Joe Biden remains at the top of the polls, Bernie Sanders comes back strong and Elizabeth Warren has not said her last word. Michael Bloomberg and Pete Buttigieg, however, still hope to create a surprise in a race that could remain undecided until the Milwaukee convention this summer.
What is the difference between a caucus and a primary?
A primary resembles a traditional ballot, with a vote in the voting booth and a count of the ballots. The caucus is an archaic curiosity, halfway between a neighborhood meeting and an election. In a room, voters gather in groups for each candidate. Below a certain threshold, a candidate is eliminated, and his supporters are then flirted to pass to the enemy.
What do the polls say?
Historically, they are not very precise in this rural state, and the format of the caucus complicates the deal. According to the latest figures, Bernie Sanders is on the rise (24%), ahead of Joe Biden (20%), Pete Buttigieg (16%) and Elizabeth Warren (15%). Nationally, the former vice president remains ahead, ahead of Sanders and Warren, with Buttigieg and Bloomberg far behind.
The average of the national polls of the Democratic primary on the eve of Iowa: Biden remains in the lead, Sanders the heel, Warren drops, Bloomberg and Buttigieg far behind. pic.twitter.com/kp4efiOfRF
- Philippe Berry (@ptiberry) January 31, 2020Why the Democratic primary could last very long?
In each State, the candidates collecting at least 15% of the votes share delegates (sort of large voters) in proportional representation. There is no ballot where the winner takes all ("winner takes all") as with the Republicans. In Iowa, 41 delegates are at stake out of a total of… 3,979. New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina will follow, where Joe Biden hopes to hit hard thanks to his popularity among African-Americans. The race should start to settle on "Super Tuesday" on March 3, a Tuesday where a dozen states are voting at the same time, with almost a third of the total number of delegates allotted at once.
Does the Iowa result predict the final winner?
Among democrats, relatively often. Since the 1970s, out of ten polls, six candidates who finished first in Iowa won the nomination. More recently, it's even four out of four, with Al Gore, John Kerry, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. On the other hand, Bill Clinton had finished only 4th before carrying out his famous "comeback".
Is a contested agreement possible?
This scenario of a “brokered convention” will occur if no candidate obtains the absolute majority of the delegates - which never happened then the 1950s. The Democrats keep under control 771 “super-delegates” of the party) who can vote for the candidate of their choice but generally tip the scales in favor of the top person, like Obama in 2008 and Clinton in 2016.
According to projections from the FiveThirtyEight site, Joe Biden has a 42% chance of winning, compared to 22% for Bernie Sanders. But the risk of a contested agreement in Milwaukee in mid-July remains high, at 15% - or one chance in eight. It is on this scenario that the former mayor of New York, Michael Bloomberg, who started late in the race and will miss the first elections. On paper, a white knight who was not a candidate could even emerge as ... Hillary Clinton. For a 2016 remake?
World
Trump vs Bloomberg, Super Bowl billionaire advertising duel
- United States
- Democratic primary
- Donald trump
- World