Washington (AFP)

The International Monetary Fund monitors "in real time" the developments of the new coronavirus in China, said its spokesman Thursday, stressing that the impact on the world economy will depend in particular on the duration of the epidemic.

"At the IMF, we are monitoring this situation very closely. We are examining economic indicators in real time," said Gerry Rice at a press conference, noting that, for the moment, it is China which is suffering the most. "direct" impacts due to the temporary confinements and closings of companies. And this, during the week of Chinese New Year.

"If global supply chains were systematically affected or if global financial markets were significantly affected by growing uncertainty, then obviously the impact would be greater," he added, noting a possible contagion effect in all of Asia.

"At this stage, we are unable to quantify that. It is something that we will do in due course. For the moment, it is too premature."

The toll of the contamination amounts to about 7,700 cases and 170 people died in China, according to the latest data from the Chinese government.

The IMF had unveiled its latest forecasts for the world economy on January 20, then counting on a recovery (+ 3.3% after + 2.9% in 2019), thanks in particular to the pause in the trade war between the States. States and China.

But he warned that this recovery was fragile and that renewed uncertainty could thwart the rebound.

The impact of the new coronavirus "will very much depend on how the disease behaves", "how quickly the virus spreads," said Gerry Rice.

He stressed that in Hubei province, the epicenter of the epidemic and which accounts for 4.5% of China's GDP, "economic activity had considerably decreased".

He said the effects should, however, be "temporary" and "reversible" when the virus weakens, and as roads and airports reopen, people will be able to return to work and businesses can catch up.

"There is a lot of uncertainty (...) The general impact on the Chinese economy will depend on the time it will take to return to the inflection point" of the virus, he said.

The IMF spokesperson finally recalled that during the SARS episode, the impact on annual growth had been "relatively weak", the virus having been contained "relatively quickly".

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) affected 8,000 people and killed 774 people in 2002/2003.

© 2020 AFP