“Ready to break”: can Scotland hold a new referendum on independence

The Scottish government is not ready to put up with the position of official London, which refused to give Edinburgh the opportunity to hold a new referendum on independence, and will prepare the next steps in order to eventually hold a plebiscite, the first Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon emphasized. She published such a statement on her Twitter page in response to a letter from British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, in which he spoke out against a vote on the sovereignty of the region.

According to Sturgeon, the ruling British Conservative Party is simply afraid to provide the Scots with the opportunity to exercise their right to self-determination. If people are given a choice, they will choose independence, the first minister is sure.

“The problem with the British government is that the longer it obstructs a referendum, the clearer it will become that the Westminster Union (the United Kingdom, which was formed after the adoption of the Union Act by England and Scotland and the creation of the united parliament in Great Britain in 1707 in Westminster . - RT ) is not a union of equals, and there will be more supporters of independence, ”wrote Nikola Sturgeon.

She added that the conservative loss of half their seats in the Scottish Parliament following the recent general election would be “only the first step on their way to returning to political oblivion in Scotland.”

My full response to UK government letter. # indyref2020pic.twitter.com / UvAFrDJF1n

Bid increase

The day before, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson rejected Edinburgh's demand for Scotland to hold a new referendum on leaving the United Kingdom. In a letter addressed to First Minister Nicole Sturgeon, Johnson stated that he had studied the arguments of the Scottish leadership and did not agree with them.

“You and your predecessor made a personal promise that the 2014 referendum on independence will be an event that happens only“ once a generation, ”Johnson reminded the head of the region.

The politician noted that “the people of Scotland voted strongly to maintain a united United Kingdom,” and the Scottish and British governments pledged to respect this choice.

“Holding a new referendum on independence could prolong the political stagnation that Scotland has experienced over the past ten years. Due to the campaign to separate from the UK, the situation with schools, hospitals and jobs in Scotland will again be left unattended, ”said the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

• A referendum on Scottish independence in 2014.
• Reuters
• © Dylan Martinez

Recall that in December 2019, Sturgeon sent an official request to the British government to hold a plebiscite on the independence of the region.

Edinburgh also issued a special document entitled Scotland's Right to Choose. The return of the future of Scotland to the hands of Scotland ”(Scotland's Right to Choose. Putting Scotland's Future in Scotland's Hands), which explained the grounds and procedure for the future referendum. It noted that "the Scottish nation is one of the oldest in Europe", has its own tradition of statehood and can choose its own future.

The Scottish government agreed that in 2014, its right to vote for independence was fully respected by the UK authorities. However, since 2014, according to the leadership of the region, the situation has changed, a new circumstance was the UK exit from the EU, carried out contrary to the will of the Scottish people. Therefore, today Edinburgh intends to hold a second vote, and this right cannot be challenged from a legal point of view, they are sure there.

Most Scots value membership in the European Union. It was the prospect of losing him that became in 2014 one of the arguments of the opponents of the separation of Scotland from Great Britain. The fact is that in Brussels then it was made clear that any new state that had split from the EU country would not automatically become a member of the European Union and would have to apply for joining the organization on an equal basis with other applicants, without any additional guarantees.

Later, during the Brexit referendum, 62% of Scotland residents opposed leaving the European Union.

“Although in 2014 the Scots voted to maintain the region as part of the United Kingdom, now the situation has really changed. Brexit deprives Scotland of a number of advantages, its ties with Europe will be limited, very many do not like it, ”Vladimir Schweitzer, head of the department of social and political studies at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said in an interview with RT.

A similar point of view is shared by political scientist and expert on European security issues Dmitry Danilov. According to him, Brexit markedly increased centrifugal trends within the United Kingdom.

“Boris Johnson may oppose this, but his protest is unlikely to stop the trend. Now the Scottish National Party for Independence is taking advantage of the situation. Edinburgh from the very beginning tried to raise rates, and he will not leave these positions. Johnson’s statements are unlikely to cool the Scottish fervor, ”the expert said in a comment to RT.

Catalan development

Formally, there are no obstacles to a new vote on Scottish independence. Under section 30 of the Scottish Act of 1998, the UK government may provide the region with the opportunity to hold such a referendum. This requires the consent of both the Scottish Parliament and both chambers of the British. Most seats in the Scottish Parliament today belong to the Scottish National Party (SNP), which, since its founding in 1934, has advocated for the independence of the region. However, the British parliament and government are not yet ready to give the green light to a new referendum in autonomy.

• The capital of Scotland is Edinburgh
• AFP
• © Lesley Martin

Early parliamentary elections in the UK in December last year added spice to these contradictions, as both the SNP, led by Nikola Sturgeon, and the Tories strengthened their positions in the House of Representatives. The Conservative Party managed to get the vast majority of places, which was regarded by Boris Johnson as a “powerful mandate” of the people to implement Brexit. In turn, Sturgeon won at home and increased her party’s representation in the British Parliament from 35 to 48 seats. Commenting on the election results, Nikola Sturgeon also announced that her party had received a popular mandate - in her case, to hold a referendum on Scottish independence.

The opinions of experts on how exactly the contradictions between London and Edinburgh will develop differ. According to Vladimir Schweitzer, although the desire for independence is growing among the Scots, the leadership of the autonomy is unlikely to decide to organize a referendum bypassing the decision of the British government.

“Most likely, Boris Johnson will be able to continue to ignore the demands of Nikola Sturgeon, although the soft tug of war between the parties will continue. In 2014, London allowed Scotland to hold a referendum because it was confident of its negative results. Today, there is no such certainty, and the British government no longer wants to resolve a plebiscite, ”the expert said.

A somewhat different point of view is shared by Dmitry Danilov. The expert believes that Nicola Sturgeon may well follow the path of Catalonia, whose authorities had previously decided to hold a referendum on independence from Spain without the consent of Madrid.

“However, the situation is somewhat different, because the Catalans did not have other options, but Edinburgh has. ShNP is represented in the British Parliament, it has quite distinct political positions and claims. At the same time, the Scots have a legitimate right to hold a second referendum on independence. It is this position that Nikola Sturgeon will defend. In the end, she will vote because the Scots are ready to break with the United Kingdom, ”the expert suggested.