Analysis: The flight from Venezuela - the largest migration in Latin America

In the Jewish district of Villa Crespo in Argentina's capital, Buenos Aires, the kosher products are now crowded with Venezuelan specialties in the store's delicatessen. And Argentina is far from alone. The street image in Latin America has changed dramatically in recent years.

Suddenly, melodic Venezuelan dialect is heard in all the major cities of the region. I have met Venezuelans as restaurant staff in Chile, hairdressers in Mexico, fast food outlets in Colombia, street vendors in Peru and taxi drivers in Argentina.
For the Latin American countries, the extensive migration presents great challenges. First, a whole new self-image for countries that had a greater habit of seeing their own population leave than to accept immigrants.

And then great stress for communities that lack important experience and necessary institutions and who already have major problems with poverty and social divisions. But migration also brings economic opportunities in the form of hundreds of thousands of young people of working age - many well-educated.

Venezuela begins with greater political stability in 2020 than in 2019. President Maduro has consolidated his hold on power after the opposition leader Guaidó failed to turn the military against the government. The opposition is again divided and the air has gone out of the street protests.

The economic situation has also stabilized somewhat and the most acute shortage of goods seems to be over. But at the same time, there has been a rapid dollarization of the Venezuelan economy. All possible products are now available - at least in the capital Caracas - but dollars are required. A new class community is emerging where access to hard currency is the clear dividing line.

And stability is relative. The Venezuelan economy is in ruins after years of mismanagement, corruption and sanctions from the United States. At the same time, the infrastructure is collapsing. 2020 is expected to be the seventh year on the rake that Venezuela's economy is shrinking - since Maduro came to power, the overall decline has been over 70 percent.

There is currently no evidence to suggest that migration from Venezuela would slow down. All the Venezuelans in exile that I talked to dream of getting relatives who stayed in their home country. And the ever-growing Venezuelan presence in the region creates networks that make it easier for new migrants - everyone has a partner, relative or friend who has left the country and can help with valuable tips and contacts.

And even though Maduro currently sits safely in the presidential palace, it can fluctuate quickly. Not least in the international arena. In Venezuela, speculation is growing following the drone attack on Iranian top military Soleimani. Would Trump be prepared to make a similar attack on the Venezuelan government?

A growing group of exilvenezolans in Florida wants to see a stronger hold on Maduro, and it cannot be overlooked that they constitute an important constituency during an election year where a victory in Florida can be crucial to Trump's chances of being re-elected.

For ordinary Venezuelans, it will still be difficult to resist the dream of a better life abroad and the opportunity to send home valuable dollars to loved ones. And for President Maduro, the exodus can, paradoxically, be good news - fewer young people who can protest Venezuela's streets and more dollars in circulation that keep dissatisfaction in check.