A few weeks before the divorce between the United Kingdom and the European Union (EU), Brexit is rekindling the desire for independence in Scotland. A crowd of Scots, gathered behind the banner "Indyref2020", demonstrated Saturday, January 11 in Glasgow, to demand the establishment of a new referendum on independence in 2020 of the country, and thus escape a Brexit which they do not want.
At the origin of the call to protest: the association All under one banner (AUOB). This collective, whose name means "all under the same flag", brings together the parties and movements favorable to the independence of Scotland.
If a mass rally, planned at the end of the march, was canceled due to the forecast of heavy rains and winds, 100,000 to 300,000 people were expected, making this the largest demonstration ever organized in this country which has only 5 million inhabitants.
As of 11:30 a.m. (local time), tens of thousands of demonstrators were gathered in the streets of the Scottish metropolis, the third largest city in the United Kingdom, holding up signs on which were written slogans as eloquent as "Scotland of Britain" ( Scotland outside Great Britain), "Another Scotland is possible", or even "end London rule" (let's finish with the authority of London).
"If we let a little Scottish rain stop us from walking, we have no chance. The march is on," the group tweeted.
In 3 days we take to the streets in an #EmergencyMarch that we called after the # GE2019 where Scotland's electorate rejected Westminster rule & gave a mandate to @theSNP for # indyref2020.
If we let the some Scottish rain stop us marching then we've no chance. The March is on 🏴🏴
Legitimate request, but refused by London
"Because they are dependent on the London agreement, the only weapon of the Scots is today political", explains Nathalie Duclos, professor of the universities in Toulouse (Jean-Jaurès), and specialist of Scotland, contacted by France 24. "It is in this context that we must understand today's demonstration: the idea is to show that the people are behind this demand, that there are many Scots who carry it, and that it is therefore legitimate because it cannot be legally imposed. "
Scotland, a member of the United Kingdom, cannot organize this poll without the authorization of London, and a dismissal has already been sent by the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson.
In 2014, a first independence referendum was held. As a result, the "no" vote won 55%, notably due to the economic fears that the emancipation of Scotland from the rest of the United Kingdom could represent.
It is this reason which is officially brandished by London to justify its refusal to authorize Scotland to organize a new referendum. "To which the Scottish government responds that circumstances have completely changed since Brexit," adds Nathalie Duclos. An argument which, according to Scotland, should be able to justify a reopening of the file.
Indeed, on June 23, 2016, two years after the first consultation, the British voted in favor of the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union. While the Scots, unlike the English and the Welsh, voted overwhelmingly against (62%), Brexit has awakened Scottish separatist temptations in a region which mostly refuses to be swept away in a spiral that it doesn did not choose.
The legislative elections of December 12 marked a clear victory for the Conservative Prime Minister's camp in England, which enabled him to implement his plan for leaving the European Union without too much trouble.
But at the same time, a separatist tidal wave hit Scotland. The Scottish National Party (SNP) won and won 48 seats out of the 59 allocated to Scotland in the House of Commons, representing no less than 80% of Scottish elected officials.
With this national assent, Nicola Sturgeon, Scottish Prime Minister and head of the SNP, called for a new independence referendum. "Boris Johnson has no mandate to get Scotland out of the European Union," she said in an interview with Scottish media STV News.
Go to the Supreme Court, the ultimate solution
Under these conditions, is the hypothesis of an independence referendum possible in 2020? "In the near future, that does not seem possible to me," says Nathalie Duclos. "As long as the Conservatives are in power, and the Scottish Prime Minister maintains this strategy of seeking permission from London, this will not work."
For the Scottish specialist, the SNP could have envisaged a "Catalan" strategy and organize a referendum despite everything. However, the authorities refused, this path not being constitutional or legal.
"The only string remaining in their bow is to bring the case to court," says the professor, who specifies that it would necessarily go before the Supreme Court.
And if a referendum in 2020 seems implausible, it will not be more in 2021. The conservatives will still be in majority in London, and a new victory of the SNP in the Scottish elections of 2021 will not change, for Nathalie Duclos, not much .
"The SNP largely won the last British election last month and had already won the Scottish elections in 2016. It hasn't changed anything," she said, conceding that it could, at most, strengthen the argument democratic legitimacy which has been repeatedly emphasized by the independence party.
2020, year of the showdown between London and Edinburgh
So is there a solution to the Scottish problem? If the referendum seems impossible in 2020, and if there is no reason why it should be in 2021, perhaps the Scots will have to wait for the next British legislative elections hoping for a change of majority
"Yes, but ..." warns Nathalie Duclos. "It will complicate things for Scotland, because instead of negotiating its transition to independence from within the EU, Scotland will already be out with Brexit and will have to negotiate membership." However, this accession implies new difficulties such as for example the possibility for the Member States to oppose their veto to the entry of Scotland into the European Union. So many obstacles on the road of the Scots, which justify that they militate for an emancipation from 2020.
While the standoff between London and Edinburgh seems difficult to tip over to Scotland before the UK's effective divorce from the EU, Scottish separatist activists are determined to increase pressure on the British government. Whether it rains or sells, they have already planned to walk "under the same flag" on the occasion of seven other events.
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