- Tensions between the United States and Iran have reached a new level since Thursday evening and the death of Iranian General Soleimani in an American bombing.
- As the escalation continues between the two powers, no country emerges to try to calm the game.
- For political scientist Nicole Bacharan, interviewed by 20 Minutes , this is simply explained: no nation has the build.
The cloth between Iran and the United States is burning, and the rest of the world is looking at it. Tensions have never been so high between the two powers, due to the death of Iranian General Soleimani ordered by US President Donald Trump, followed by the Islamic Republic's call for revenge. No foreign power comes to settle between the two rival nations to try to establish a dialogue or to call them to order.
For Nicole Bacharan, historian, political scientist and author of The World According to Trump , this international vacuum reflects the new global system, where no one has been able to take the role of leader abandoned by the United States.
We often cite the arbitration of a third power as the only solution to ease tensions between the United States and Iran. So far, none has emerged. How to explain this observation?
The international observation is first of all that the United States of Donald Trump no longer occupies the role of policeman of the world, with a policy that is impossible to read and predict, sometimes even incoherent. But we can also see that no power has the build to take over this role. Each time, something is missing. Europe has economic power, but has neither a united political line nor the military manpower to establish this role. Russia could have the necessary influence, especially on Iran, but it is far from having the military or economic power to weigh outside its territory. And China has no influence on the area, even less on the United States.
Beyond the shortcomings of each of its powers, should we not also see a lack of interest in the Middle East?
It depends on who. For example, beyond its shortcomings, Russia has no interest in intervening. For the moment, the only concrete consequence of this escalation is the American withdrawal from Iraq, which makes Russia's business. Why would she dare to intervene diplomatically in a situation that suits her? China has no interest in delving into such “minor” American affairs for the Asian giant, all the more so since it does not want the Americans to snoop around in its own.
For Europe, there would already be more reasons to intervene. She has nothing to gain from seeing the Middle East become even more volatile. France has a military presence there, Europe is fragile in the face of the risk of attacks and does not know how to manage possible migration. Finally, seeing the price of oil soar is far from doing its business.
Should we fear this absence of a world leader?
The United States has lost its political influence over the world. They are attracting more and more distrust and opposition. And this is a real problem, especially in the absence of alternatives. Since 1945, there was an established world order. It was far from perfect, very far from being free from defects or meeting all the necessities, but it had the advantage of fixing a frame and guaranteeing a minimum of things. Since then, there has been chaos.
Already in 2005, we wondered if we should be afraid of America. Rightly so, since the United States was without the endorsement of the UN. But to choose, if a superpower were needed, as much as it was them rather than China or Russia… Today there are no potential replacements with a democratic project.
Europe?
Each crisis shows the failure of the union of Europe, which never succeeds in making a united front. Moreover, Emmanuel Macron, the most interventionist on the international level, is often put back in the ropes by Donald Trump or the other world leaders on the fact that he represents only France and that he cannot achieve unanimity within the European Union. Who would it be to teach the world lessons?
Finally, with each world crisis, the same observation returns for the European Union: no sufficient military force, not even united, and no clear and understandable position above the fray. And there is no indication that this is about to change.
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