Pension reform: Emmanuel Macron's strategy with concessions

Emmanuel Macron had warned, Thursday, October 3, during a debate on the pension reform in Rodez, that he would not tolerate any exception in his future universal pension scheme: "If I start to say, we keep a special scheme for one, it will fall like dominoes. Because behind, they will tell me you are doing for the police and therefore the gendarmes. Then they will tell me: you are doing for the gendarmes, why not for the nurses, the assistants caregivers ... And then we're going to redo special regimes. In two stages-three movements we are there. [So it's] no, "said the President of the Republic that day.

End of the joke. pic.twitter.com/hDrwCT9R65

Nearly three months later, the music is no longer quite the same: almost a dozen sectors have obtained accommodations, or even the maintenance of their specificity, in the past three weeks.

Thus, while the gendarmes, firefighters, prison guards or air traffic controllers quickly saw their right to early departures confirmed at 57 or even 52 years of age, for their "dangerous duties", the police officers occupying "royal duties" protection of the population "," taking into account the dangers to which they are exposed ", have obtained to continue to" benefit from the derogations from the retirement age ", assured the Minister of the Interior, Christophe Castaner. Or the possibility of entitlement at 52 and retirement at 57. Another promise: the special bonus known as "the fifth" or "quinquennial", which offers them an annuity (four quarters) of subscription every five years, will be "replaced by an over-contribution from the Ministry of the Interior".

>> Read: The reasons for the mobilization against the pension reform

The flight attendants and flight attendants obtained assurances on the maintenance of their independent complementary pension fund, the CRPN, with € 5 billion in reserves. The retirement age at 55 for cabin crew must nevertheless gradually disappear for the generations born after 1987, to converge towards that of 60, according to the SNPNC union.

On the pilot side, the majority union SNPL lifted its strike notice after having received "precise and engaging elements" concerning the maintenance of the CRPN and the possibility of retiring at full rate at 60 years.

The truckers' unions have obtained the continuation of their end of activity leave (CFA), a device allowing drivers attesting to a certain seniority to retire five years before the legal age.

"The government is dying on this pension reform"

The hospital is also affected by the concessions. By extending to civil servants the "arduousness account", reserved for private employees, and by taking better account of night work, 20% to 30% of nurses and nursing assistants will be able to leave before age 62, and, at best, to 60 years, ensures the executive. But more at 57. Matignon also promises the launch at the start of 2020 of a "consultation on the development of the second parts of the career" at the hospital.

At the Paris Opera, the artists of the prestigious Parisian ballet, who can receive a pension from the age of 42, will benefit from the "grandfather clause", that is to say that only dancers recruited after the January 1, 2022 will be affected by the new regime. For future employees, the government proposes to develop "a professional retraining system" for the few dancers (six per year on average over the past five years) who will stop each year. The dancers refuse for the moment such a device and want to save their diet for future generations.

>> Read: Defense of pensions, an "old demand of the workers' movement"

Édouard Philippe finally affirmed that the reform "will recognize [it] the specificities [of fishermen who will have] the assurances they request" on their right to an early departure before 62 years.

Faced with such a multiplication of exceptions, the opposition - from La France insoumise (LFI) to the Rassemblement national (RN) via Les Républicains (LR) - did not fail to emphasize that the future regime wanted by Emmanuel Macron became less and less universal. "The government is in the process of sausageing this pension reform. […] We ask for clarifications from the President of the Republic", notably launched on December 30 on Twitter Damien Abad, LR deputy of Ain and president of group in the National Assembly.

. @ damienabad: “The #government creates many exceptions for a universal regime. We are asking for clarification from @ EmmanuelMacron. What is the objective of this #reformedesretraites? »Pic.twitter.com/0ObPnXILjs

It is only in the special regimes of the RATP and the SNCF that the executive shows greater firmness. The executive has made proposals, such as postponing the entry of railway workers into the new system, but intends to end, in the long term, what it calls "privileges".

Importance of the abolition of special regimes among the voters of Macron

This strategy is in line with the way pension reform has been presented since the start of the conflict. In official speeches as well as on the platforms of news channels, the same elements of language were indeed repeated over and over again by members of the government and the deputies of La République en Marche (LREM). These systematically target the SNCF and the RATP, but never the other special regimes: "It is no longer possible today to have additional rights because you work at the SNCF or the RATP. "is not the same as yesterday," said Aurore Bergé, LREM MP for Yvelines, on December 16 on Sud Radio.

“There is a part of irresponsibility of the CGT which does not propose anything except to withdraw the reform.

It is no longer possible today to have additional rights because we work at SNCF or RATP.

The arduousness is not the same as yesterday. »@Auroreberge pic.twitter.com/T2OORgi9Hg

This intransigence with variable geometry is explained by the popularity of the abolition of special regimes for SNCF and RATP agents among the French, and in particular within the electoral base of the Head of State: while 67% of French people are in favor of the abolition of the current 42 regimes, they are 90% among the voters of Emmanuel Macron and 86% among the voters of François Fillon (in the first round of the 2017 presidential election) to approve this measure, according to a Elabe poll published on December 18.

Consequently, by playing the watch and by clearing the discontent sector by sector, with the exception of transport, Emmanuel Macron is betting that the political gains he will gain from his inflexibility in front of the strikers will be greater than the cost that could represent bogged down conflict.

Reform inspector regrets government's desire to save money

However, such a strategy has one drawback: to cast doubt on the objective pursued by the reform. Does it aim to transform the pension system or rather to save money, as claimed by its opponents?

>> To read: 2019, a French political year still being played in the street

Because failing to make its universality a priority, it is the pivotal age which the government seems to hold at all costs. However, this parametric measure, which aims to postpone the retirement age by introducing a penalty for those who retire before age 64 and a bonus for those who leave afterwards, is widely criticized, including by those who support the transition to a points retirement.

This is the case, in particular, of the inspiration behind the proposal for point pensions during Emmanuel Macron's campaign in 2017. In a column published on December 12 in Le Monde, the day after the Prime Minister's speech detailing the future reform, the economist Antoine Bozio regretted that the orientations chosen by the government were the result of political and budgetary considerations and spoke of "formidable mess" about the reform: "The pivotal age has not been abandoned in the new system, it was introduced into the current system. The objective is thus assumed to reduce the expenditure of retirement. (…) The fears of the opponents to the reform on the reduction of the rights to the retirement are thus validated. "

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