Sa'er stirred the party's stagnant water ... What after Netanyahu's re-election to the Likud leadership?

Muhammad Mohsen Wedd - occupied Jerusalem

Following his victory over the Gideon Saar competition, the re-election of outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the leadership of the Likud Party has overshadowed the Israeli political scene.

The results of the Likud presidency were not surprising, as Netanyahu got 72.5% of the vote compared to 27.5% for Saar, but what is noticeable is the reluctance of members of the party to participate, as the percentage of the vote reached 49.45%, knowing that the number of Likud members is 120,000.

From the start of the competition, Netanyahu was seen as the winner, but the only question that accompanied the elections is how much the difference will be? Netanyahu focused on not winning his victory by a slight margin, which would indicate signs of splits within the Likud or a party storm that could set the stage for the start of a rebellion of a leader who would succeed him as party leader.

The complexities of the electoral scene
Observers believe that the Likud running for the upcoming elections with a list headed by Netanyahu, who faces lists of charges of corruption, will complicate scenarios for forming the next government and deepen the crisis of government in Israel.

Despite the decline in the participation rates in the internal Likud elections, Netanyahu's political strength is due to his being the leader of the Likud party, meaning that he is the leader of the big party in the right-wing camp.

Netanyahu also draws his strength from the steadfast and absolute support he received after last September's elections from settlers, religious parties, ultra-Orthodox and religious Zionists, who together with Likud formed the right-wing bloc of 55 deputies.

In the face of these developments and results, analysts are unanimous that Netanyahu will seek to use the results of the primary elections and support the Likud affiliate to establish a new stage to support the right-wing bloc.

According to the analysts, Netanyahu will push towards alliances between parties and small movements in the far-right camp, in order to resolve the third elections and obtain 61 seats for Parliament, so that he can form a narrow right-wing government.

Silence and immunity
The political correspondent of the website, "No," Tal Shilo believes that the election results for the Likud leadership constitute a protective shield for Netanyahu and motivate him to communicate with the public in the battle for immunity and face the lists of accusations of corruption issues after the fund was decided in the third Knesset elections.

The political correspondent believes that, despite the courage that Saar showed and went out of the ordinary, in light of the silence of the Likud leaders, and his move to replace Netanyahu because of the corruption files and his failure for the second time to form the government, it cannot be confirmed through the election results that Sa'ar was able to establish a solid base with this Mahalla to be the inheritor of Netanyahu.

Despite this, Shilo suggests that Sa’ar and his camp inside the five-member Likud will have an effective role when Netanyahu asks for immunity from the Knesset, where his fate will be in their hands, and Sa’ar and his camp will have to cooperate with the Likud election campaign until next March.

But it is unclear, Shilo says, "How will Saer promote Mr Netanyahu, who previously asked him to step down because of files, and accused him of failing to form a right-wing government. Likewise, it is not excluded that Sa'ir and his camp will defect from the Likud after the third elections and join a government headed by a blue and white coalition, if Netanyahu failed for the third time in forming the government. "

Scenarios
Although Netanyahu defeated his rival Saar by a large margin, political analyst in the newspaper "Maariv" Ben Kasbit believes that the primaries for the Likud presidency and the results it produced, and despite the coalition of leaders and rallying around Netanyahu, it establishes for the first stage the process of ending the dictator's rule and breaking the barrier of fear and silence.

The political analyst pointed out that Sa'ar, who contends for Netanyahu's succession, had a role in stabilizing the Likud's position in the party scene and political map, and maintaining its strength and seats after Netanyahu failed to form a government after the elections in February.

Accordingly, Bin Kasbait believes that Sa’ar, despite losing by a large difference, will maintain his position and support his camp within the Likud, stressing that it is not excluded that more party members join Sa’ar after the third elections, especially if the balance of power between the right and center camps remains the same after the third elections , Which is the scenario expected according to the polls.

The political analyst believes that the new converts in the electoral scene, unlike the previous elections, that for the first time since the establishment of Israel, the Israeli public will go to the polls and participate in the parliamentary elections in which the head of a candidate party competes to form the government, against whom three indictments have been filed and he seeks to hide behind immunity.