Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who led the Labor Government from 1997 to 2007, in an article for The Guardian newspaper claims that the kingdom’s exit from the European Union threatens a renewed civil conflict in Northern Ireland.

The politician indicates that after Brexit, Northern Ireland will remain part of the single European market, while Britain will exit from it. This means that the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will have to introduce border controls. In addition, the membership of Northern Ireland in a single market space upon completion of the London exit from the EU may be suspended by its legislative assembly, which now does not have such powers.

“Europe will demand the abolition of a possible veto of the Democratic Unionist Party of Ireland and the creation of a fallback option within the customs union. However, even if the Johnson government ultimately makes all concessions, it will be disastrous for the UK. In addition, in its current form, this proposal runs counter to the foundations of the Belfast Agreement, ”Blair writes in The Guardian.

According to him, all this creates the prerequisites for a new civil conflict in Northern Ireland, which was stopped in 1998 due largely to the establishment of the so-called transparent border between Ireland and the British territories in the north of the island.

“For the first time, the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will become the external border for the EU. And if, as supporters of Brexit require, the UK will leave not only political European structures, but also trade ones - a single market and a customs union - as a result, border control will appear and the principle of transparent border will be violated, ”Blair writes.

Key issue

Recall that in Northern Ireland, a civilian ethnopolitical conflict lasted for 40 years between Orange Protestants (loyal to Great Britain) and Republican Catholics (Irish nationalists). In 1998, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Irish Cabinet Minister Bertie Ahern signed an agreement in Belfast. This document put an end to the confrontation.

  • British soldiers patrol the streets of Londonderry, 1971
  • AFP
  • © DARDE

The agreement was based on the absence of a physical border between Northern Ireland, which is part of Britain, and the Republic of Ireland, which remains part of the EU. Now, in order to ensure exit from the European Union, the British authorities will have to build a border, which may lead to new conflicts.

Northern Ireland is strongly opposed to leaving the EU without an agreement, as this would mean the end of the “transparent” border due to the need for checks.

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Theresa May’s cabinet has included the so-called “insurance option” in its draft agreement on secession from the European Union. It consists in the fact that if before the end of the transitional period a border decision is not accepted, acceptable to all parties, Northern Ireland will retain membership in the European Customs Union.

The UK cannot economically tear away Northern Ireland, which is part of it, and therefore supporters of Brexit fear that this issue may be used as an excuse to preserve the whole kingdom's membership in the customs union - which directly contradicts the ideology of Brexit in establishing an EU-independent trade policy.

Tony Blair, who is an active opponent of Brexit, goes for a “pronounced political provocation” because he seeks to rekindle the conflict that is gaining momentum in Northern Ireland over the UK’s initiative to exit the EU, the deputy director of the Institute of History said in a conversation with RT and politicians of the Moscow State Pedagogical University Vladimir Shapovalov.

“At the moment, various ways to solve the Northern Ireland problem are being considered, which has become a key one for Brexit, since it can lead to an escalation of tension both in the UK and on the island of Ireland. Most likely, Northern Ireland will receive a special status, which will imply the absence of a rigid border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. But if the British political elites go along the confrontational path, which will suggest a new dividing line, then, of course, this may well lead to another conflict, ”said Shapovalov.

According to him, Tony Blair, as a person with a certain political commitment, in this case “seeks to rock this situation” in order to create further problems for the government of Boris Johnson.

Relentless Prime

Despite such warnings, Boris Johnson’s cabinet still does not abandon its intention to withdraw Great Britain from the European Union by October 31, with or without an agreement.

  • Boris Johnson
  • Reuters
  • © Phil Noble

Meanwhile, according to The Independent, which cites representatives of the EU’s political elite, leaders of a number of EU member states believe that Johnson’s initiatives are unlikely to become the basis for a new Brexit agreement. In addition, politicians are not sure that the British authorities will be able to adjust them as necessary. According to the publication, Brussels refused to engage in dialogue with London on Johnson's proposed amendments to the agreement over the weekend, postponing negotiations for the next week. In addition, according to the publication, the head of the British government is preparing to go on a tour of European capitals to make a "diplomatic breakthrough."

In turn, the newspaper The Telegraph, citing two senior members of the cabinet, said that Johnson intends to sabotage the governing bodies of the European bureaucracy if Brussels does not agree to his proposed conditions for leaving the EU and again delay the brexit.

According to unnamed politicians, if the EU does not accept the compromise proposed by Johnson, London will impede the harmonization of the seven-year budget of the European Union in March 2020 - the kingdom has such an opportunity, since formally the state still remains a member of a united Europe.

In addition, according to government sources, the UK government will nominate a staunch opponent of the EU to its European Commissioner, who will sabotage the work of the EU’s governing bodies in every way.

According to politicians, Johnson’s entourage is considering the possibility of appointing Nigel Faraj, an odious Eurosceptic, friend Donald Trump, former leader of the United Kingdom’s Independence Party (UKIP) and current Brexit leader.

Meanwhile, analysts believe that such a course on the part of Great Britain is guaranteed to aggravate the smoldering conflict with the EU, on the part of which retaliatory actions of a confrontational nature are possible.

“I think Britain will continue to adhere to the line of agreement with the EU. But at the same time, the government of Boris Johnson can also use this radical course, since he is an active supporter of Brexit, and for this purpose he is ready to take any steps that could ultimately lead to an extremely tough scenario for Britain to exit the EU, ”explained expert.

The expert of the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, Vladimir Bruter, also suggested that Johnson will continue to act in a provocative manner, since it is approaching October 31, and he did not put forward proposals that would suit all parties.

“He will try to withdraw Britain from the EU by this date by any means, even without an agreement, although he sent a new version of the Irish border, but this initiative was not satisfied with Europe. In my opinion, if the opposition does not want to allow such a development of events, it will have to raise the question of his resignation. Today there is no doubt that the situation will become even more complicated, because he will continue to pursue his tough policy, ”concluded Bruter.