Baghdadis fear that the next war between the United States and Iran will be in Iraq, a country that is recovering from war and living in peace after defeating ISIS. There have been growing warnings that Iraq will be drawn into such a conflict as a result of recent Israeli drone strikes on Iraqi militia bases called the Popular Mobilization, which Israel and the United States accuse of acting as an agent for Iran.
"The latest development is an indication that Israel has entered the conflict in Iraq," said Abu Alaa Alaa al-Wali, a sectarian militia with strong ties to Iran, in an exclusive interview with The Independent in Baghdad. Three Israeli drones attacked one of its bases in the Iraqi capital, Al-Saqer, on August 12, blowing up 50 tons of weapons. The Israelis confirmed that they carried out the raid, which was preceded by other similar raids, and claimed that they hit Iranian missiles equipped to send to Syria and Lebanon. There is likely to be US involvement in these Israeli attacks, which could provoke a political crisis in Iraq. Abu Ala'a says that then an Iraqi report, which has not yet been published, about this attack, reveals that the Israeli "drone" was launched from a US base located in the Kurdish region in northeastern Syria, which is controlled by the Kurdish organization "QSD", adding: «Watch the Iraqi radar "One of the three planes traveling at 140 kilometers an hour before, during and after the attack."
US policy in the Middle East is unpopular, uncorrelated, and contradictory under President Donald Trump's administration, but allowing Israel to carry out disturbing attacks from a US base against the Popular Mobilization looks like self-destruction from an American point of view. It led to a law in the Iraqi parliament demanding the withdrawal of US troops from the state.
Asked if the Martyrs' Brigades would attack US forces, if there were war between the United States and Iran, Abu Alaa replied, "Certainly yes," and expressed his enthusiasm for the Dron because it would help make forces more equal on the battlefield. "Yes, we work day and night to develop drone planes that can be installed in the living room." Of course, drone attacks on US bases in Iraq will be easy, because these bases are easily accessible, and in many ways do not add to US power. Iraq could be American "hostages" in Iraq in the event of a conflict between Iran and the United States.
Indeed, the future of the Hashd as a state within a state under Iranian influence is a crucial issue in the struggle for influence between Iran and the United States. Washington is pushing for a reduction or even total cancellation of the role of the crowd, but these efforts may prove futile or unproductive. The crowd is a political and military organization, so entrenched in Iraq that the United States cannot do anything to diminish its influence. He achieved good results in the last general election in 2018, and his support is essential for any stable Iraqi government.
This pattern has been prevalent in Iraq since 2003, when the United States wanted to get rid of the late Iraqi president, Saddam Hussein, without the benefit of Iran. But US diplomats and generals have been unable to avoid cooperation, sometimes openly, with Iran.
Not much has changed in the years that followed. Indeed, the ruling majority had a national identity, but a strong religious character. As for Iraq and Iran, it is not surprising that they feel they have many common issues.
Many Iraqis are indignant at the fragmentation of power. They complain that the PMF is strong, and the government is weak. But this is the reality that cannot be changed now. Iran appears skilled in playing Iraqi political chess games and is acting as a mediator between many different parties and positions of power.
In fact, the United States is not strong enough to exclude the "popular mobilization" in Iraq, and therefore will not try to do so, and certainly the United States is aware that Israel has been firing "Dron" aircraft to Iraq since Washington took control of Iraqi airspace, But using Israel as its proxy in Iraq is a dangerous game.
Iraq has enjoyed two years of relative safety since the defeat of ISIS and the restoration of the city of Mosul in 2017. Many of Baghdad's checkpoints, as well as concrete walls that protect against bomb blasts, have disappeared. The city is full of new restaurants and shops, and the streets are crowded until late at night. But many Iraqis wonder how long this will last, if the confrontation between the United States and Iran escalates into all-out war. "Many of my friends are so worried about the Iran-US war that they are using their end-of-service bonuses for government work to buy houses outside the country," said an unnamed civil servant.
They certainly have strong reasons for concern. US influence in the Middle East has been hurt by Iranian intransigence and ambition. So far, President Donald Trump believes it is not in the US interest to strike Iran, but he cannot bear all the Iranian damage without action, because that would make him look weak.
Iraq is where the United States and its allies can carry out reprisals, and the main target is likely to be the Popular Mobilization militia. This in turn will lead to retaliatory attacks against US bases that seem fragile to any strike in the Drone era. Iraqis fear the idea of another military conflict, but the biggest fear is that it will inevitably occur.
Patrick Cockburn is the Independent's Middle East correspondent
The future of the Hashd as a state within the state under Iranian influence is a crucial issue in the struggle for influence between Iran and the United States.
Many Iraqis are outraged by the fragmentation of power, complaining that the PMF is strong, and the government is weak.