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Just under ten million Afghans are being called to the polls this Saturday, September 28 to choose a president. But the election is taking place again in a climate of extreme violence: the Taliban have multiplied the attacks since the failure earlier this month of negotiations they were conducting with the Americans.
Afghans fear a bloody election. " Independently of the Afghan security forces that ensure they are ready, we know that the Taliban are present in almost half of the Afghan territory ," says Jean-Luc Racine, research director emeritus at the CNRS, who points out that out of the 5,400 centers in Afghanistan , vote, 400 were closed for security reasons.
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The specialist points out that the Taliban has particularly threatened the teaching community, as some polling stations are in schools. Taliban goals: " If the turnout is much lower than the voter turnout, they will take the opportunity to challenge the legitimacy of the future winner of the election ."
15 candidates in the running
Of the 15 candidates, as in the last election, outgoing President Ashraf Ghani and Prime Minister Abdullah Abdullah are the favorites. For Ashraf Ghani, who was kept out of negotiations between the Americans and the Taliban, this election is an opportunity to " go back on a blank page " and assert himself as the main political figure of the country.
Especially since " most other candidates have not really been able to campaign, " says Romain Malejacq, professor of political science at the University of Radboud in the Netherlands. As a result, " Ashraf Ghani did not want to participate in the electoral debates, and he made sure that the election is held as soon as possible. Since he is the outgoing candidate, it is to his advantage . "
A frank victory would change everything for this outgoing president who wants to get rid of the government of national unity he has been dragging since 2014, and to start a second term with a strong government that he holds completely. Since the last presidential election, Ashraf Ghani has to deal with a Prime Minister he did not want. At the end of the second round, the two men claimed victory, and it was the Americans who finally unlocked the situation by forcing them to work together , as number 1 and number 2. Hence a certain paralysis of the government .. .
And it is in opposition that Abdullah Abdullah presents himself at this election: an opponent of a government he considers corrupt, functioning as a " political clique ".
Romain Malejacq emphasizes that there is no major political difference between the two men: it is mainly a question of personality, political network, customer network. On the other hand, " the only really important issue that seems to be separating them is Abdullah Abdullah's assertion that in case of negotiations with the Taliban, if they were truly determined to make peace, if elected, he would be willing to leave power to leave room for a government of national unity . "
A partially resigned population
Beyond the calculations and political desires, what is the Afghan population waiting for? In recent months, as the peace talks between the Americans and the Taliban progressed, it seemed certain that he would be pushed back again. With the failure of the talks, the Afghans end up with an election that comes to the fore, but for Romain Malejacq, " not sure that the population expects much from this vote, which will be marked by fraud, violence. The public expects politics as it has always been since 2001. "
Especially since the programs of the candidates do not really differ from each other - and it is not the absence of debate that allowed to see more clearly. Yet, Afghan politics has new faces like that of the candidate Ahmad Massoud , the son of Ahmed Chah Massoud. " But when we come to the vote, we see that it is always the same candidates who win the most votes ," says Romain Malejacq. " In Afghanistan, it's important to appear as the strongman, and there are some who have legitimacy acquired during the war against the Soviet Union, but also in the war against the Taliban," he says. . Young people, in fact, have not done much. They can not find a place to have a real platform and be heard. "
A requirement of transparency
In the meantime, for the election on Saturday to be considered a success, the Taliban must not carry out major attacks, that fraud remains limited - a biometric system has been established among others. But Romain Malejacq already points out that the lists of the Electoral Commission do not correspond to those of the districts ...
Then, it will be necessary that the results are transmitted in the transparency, which was not the case of the last polls: the results of the legislative elections of 2018 were communicated only after several months, and during the second round In the presidential elections of 2014, the American mediation certainly made it possible to unblock the situation between Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, but recalls Jean-Luc Racine " without we really communicated the results in favor of one another ".
This time the electoral commission, which has been changed since the 2018 fiasco, " knows that it is expected by the Afghans, the observers and the international community that pays a high price to ensure that these elections can lead to a result almost undeniable, since obviously it is one of the keys to the search for peace then ".