Joint command and staff exercises of the military of Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia started on September 2, maneuvers are called Eternity-2019 ("Eternity-2019"). The exercises, which were previously announced in the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense, consist of theoretical and practical parts and will be held partly at the War Games Center of the Armed Forces of Azerbaijan, and partly in the field. According to the scenario, the military personnel of the three countries will work out the protection of regional economic projects. The exercises will last until September 6th.

The fact that Georgia will join the exercises of the partners of Turkey and Azerbaijan this year, it became known in June of this year, the Georgian Defense Ministry reported about this following a meeting of the defense ministers of the three countries.

According to the military political scientist, head of the department of political science and sociology Andrei Koshkin Plekhanov, Georgia expects that participation in the exercises will help her to increase the training of the command staff of her own army.

“In addition, it should be borne in mind that Turkey has the second most powerful army in NATO, and Georgia is actively seeking the North Atlantic Alliance. Participation in such exercises can be seen as actions that will help Tbilisi get closer to the goal. At the same time, Georgia itself is hardly a leading participant in these exercises, given the deplorable state of its armed forces, ”the expert explained in an interview with RT.

As for Azerbaijan, it is solving its regional problems in the context of difficulties in relations with Armenia. Military interaction with other countries, including such a strong player as Turkey, allows Baku to demonstrate that Azerbaijan is not alone and can receive external support, said Andrei Koshkin.

The decision of official Tbilisi to take part in the maneuvers together with Baku and Ankara caused an ambiguous reaction in Georgia. The leader of the Labor Party, Shalva Natelashvili, said that joining the Georgian military in exercises is tantamount to insulting Georgia and its history against the background of Azerbaijan’s actions in relation to the monastery complex David Gareji.

“After President Aliyev took away David Gareji, Bertubani, the Easter monastery from us just a few weeks ago, brought in troops, held a huge highway and in fact this ancient truly Georgian cultural monument - a symbol of Christianity, the second Jerusalem - fell under the jurisdiction of this state, the participation of our armed forces in these exercises is an insult to our country, history, people, soldiers and officers, ”Natelashvili said.

"Triple Alliance"

Recall that the border dispute between Georgia and Azerbaijan intensified in April this year after the Azerbaijani border guards closed access to the Georgian monastery of Udabno for several days. The path was opened after negotiations between the countries at the level of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, but at the same time, Azerbaijan increased the number of its border troops in the disputed region.

The monastery is part of a unique complex of Christian cave monasteries David Gareji. The Azerbaijani authorities previously blocked access to the shrines located on the disputed section of the Azerbaijani-Georgian border. Although a joint commission on demarcation and delimitation of the border was created by countries back in 1996, about a third of the border remains uncoordinated.

  • Monastery complex David Gareja
  • Reuters
  • © Behshad Darvish

As a senior researcher at the Institute for Social and Political Studies of the Black Sea-Caspian Region, Vladimir Novikov explained in a commentary to RT, there was a difficult attitude towards Azerbaijan among the Georgian political elite. According to the expert, the basis of distrust is not so much territorial differences as fears of becoming completely dependent on energy in Baku.

“Already today, the Georgian side is feeling dependent on Azerbaijani energy supplies. The figure of Natelashvili himself may not be taken seriously, but he often voices those moods that roam at the top of Georgian society. It is obvious that now in Tbilisi there is a certain conflict between the supporters of the orientation towards Azerbaijan on the issue of fuel supplies and their opponents, ”the expert said, speaking about Georgian-Azerbaijani relations.

Recall, amid the crisis in Georgian-Russian relations, Tbilisi refused to import Russian gas and began to increase the supply of Azerbaijani fuel, including not only natural gas, but also oil. However, over time, the Georgian leadership began to doubt the effectiveness of this model. According to the media in February this year, George Kobulia, who at that time held the post of Minister of Economy of Georgia, the monopoly of one energy supplier is unacceptable.

At the same time, for a third participant in the Eternity-2019 exercises, Turkey, a confrontation between Baku and Tbilisi would be very unprofitable, a senior researcher at the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the IMEMO RAS named after him noted in an interview with RT. E. M. Primakova, Associate Professor of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Vladimir Avatkov. According to the expert, Ankara is interested in strengthening unity between these states in order to freely promote its goods through Georgian territory to Azerbaijan, which is perceived by the Turkish side as a “little brother”.

“In addition, it should be noted that the Eternity-2019 exercises contribute to the spread of Turkish influence in the region, therefore, protests against it are clearly unprofitable for Ankara,” the expert explained.

However, while the territorial dispute does not prevent Baku and Tbilisi from cooperating in the military sphere with the active participation of Turkey. Since 2012, the military ministers of the three countries have held regular meetings on regional cooperation issues. In March 2018, the defense ministers of Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in the defense sector.

Borders in the heart

In recent decades, Turkey has shown great geopolitical ambitions, Ankara is striving to create its belt of influence, taking on the ideas of pan-Turkism. And although Georgia is not among the Turkic-speaking countries, it is also an object of interest from Turkey. Ankara sees Georgia as a “bridge” with an important ally - Azerbaijan, as well as the Turkic-speaking countries of Central Asia.

Cooperation with Tbilisi is not limited to the military field, we are talking about a number of economic, energy and transport projects, including the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzrum gas pipeline. Today, it is Turkey that is Georgia’s largest trading partner, followed by Azerbaijan and Russia.

  • Batumi, Georgia
  • AFP
  • © Vano Shlamov

At the same time, the Turkish side does not forget to use its soft power tools in relation to Georgia. So, in Georgia, the government-run Turkish Agency for International Cooperation and Development (TİKA) is actively working, the organization is engaged in such areas as charity and training for Georgian civil servants.

TİKA is not the only organization that works to popularize Turkey in Georgian society. The country also has the Turkish Institute of Yunus Emre. This NGO promotes Turkish culture and language in a number of countries.

Of particular interest to the Turkish side are those Georgian regions in which a significant proportion of Muslims live, primarily we are talking about Adjara. Many of the locals have relatives in Turkey - Turkish Georgians call themselves “Chveeneburi,” in 2013, Mikheil Saakashvili even launched a campaign to distribute the latest Georgian passports. However, Georgian nationalism is hardly able to compete with the "soft power" of the Republic of Turkey, experts say.

Adjara, once part of the Ottoman Empire, today has become the addressee not only of Ankara’s cultural projects, but also a recipient of Turkish investments. According to media reports, the volume of Turkish financial injections reaches 90% of the total foreign investment flowing into the autonomy.

In one of his speeches, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that the interests of modern Ankara coincide with the interests of the Ottoman Empire, in this context, the politician also mentioned Batumi.

“Our physical boundaries are different from the boundaries in our heart. Is it possible to distinguish Rize from Batumi? ”Erdogan wondered.

This replica of the Turkish leader outraged Georgian society, the Turkish embassy in Tbilisi had to make excuses, according to diplomats, Georgia “misunderstood” Erdogan. As the Turkish side stated then, Ankara has no territorial claims on Georgia.

However, in practice, expansion is possible without military incursions, many in Georgia are unhappy with the growing influence of Turkey, experts say.

Dangerous Strategy

According to Vladimir Novikov, if the Turkish presence in the region grows, it is likely that in the future Ankara will be able to influence Tbilisi’s policy, its relations with other countries, and may even de facto establish a protectorate over part of Georgian territories, for example, Adjara .

“It cannot be said that today in Georgia they did not notice the Turkish“ soft ”expansion, now it is already alarming not only among the opposition, but also among the authorities,” the expert said.

Today, Georgia runs the risk of becoming dependent on its neighbors, since for a long time in Tbilisi they regarded the attention of Turkey only as an occasion to attract Turkish investment. After the deterioration of relations with Moscow, the Georgian side had almost no choice of possible trade and investment partners, the expert noted.

  • Recep Tayyip Erdogan
  • Reuters
  • © Murat Cetinmuhurdar / Presidential Press Office / Handout

“Being economically dependent on Turkey, Georgia will also be in political dependence. The point may be that the corridor of regional and foreign policy opportunities of Georgia will be narrowed, ”Novikov emphasized.

A similar point of view is shared by Vladimir Avatkov. According to the expert, today Turkey is pursuing a rather active expansionary line in relation to the entire Caucasus, and in particular, the South Caucasus. Tbilisi itself actively encouraged a rapprochement with Ankara, considering this reorientation as a means of moving away from cooperation with Russia.

“Now it is Turkey that is the largest investor and trading partner of Georgia, which seeks to supplant Russian influence in this way, but does not understand that in the long run this is a dangerous strategy, even from the point of view of Georgian statehood,” the expert summed up.