“Difficult and unpredictable”: how the position of Boris Johnson on Brexit can influence the future of Great Britain

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be able to win a parliamentary majority for the Conservative Party, which he heads, only if the country leaves the EU without a deal. This is evidenced by the results of a study of consulting and sociological services ComRes, published in the newspaper The Telegraph.

“According to a public opinion poll, at the next election, Boris Johnson will be able to provide (for the Conservative Party - RT ) a majority in the House of Commons only if elections are held after the UK leaves the EU without a deal with Brussels,” the publication notes.

It also clarifies that the “hard” scenario of a “divorce” of London and Brussels can provide the conservatives with a seven percentage point advantage over Labor and also deprive the support of the Brexit Party.

“In the event of any other development of events - including the holding of elections before the Brexit date, extension of the deadline or withdrawal from the EU under conditions similar to those agreed upon by Teresa May, the Conservative Party will not be able to win the majority,” the publication states.

Recall that the British authorities have already determined the timeline for secession from the European Union. As stated by the Brexit Minister Stephen Barkley at the end of July, it will happen on October 31, regardless of whether preliminary bilateral agreements with the EU are reached.

"May be defeated"

As for the political perspectives of the conservatives on the scenario for which Brexit goes, analysts urge not to make far-reaching conclusions. As Elena Ananyeva, head of the Center for British Studies at the Institute of Europe, RAS, said in a conversation with RT, “the political situation in the UK is extremely volatile now, so it’s too early to talk about the political future of the Conservative Party.

“More important here is the balance of power in parliament. On the eve of the by-elections to the House of Commons in the constituency of Wales, Brecon and Rednorshire, which was previously headed by a conservative. As a result of voting, a representative of the opposition party of liberal democrats won. Thus, this political force has increased its faction to 13 people, and the government majority in parliament has decreased, ”Ananeva said.

• British Prime Minister Boris Johnson
• AFP
• © JESSICA TAYLOR / UK PARLIAMENT

She also added that now the conservatives have a minimal advantage in parliament - by just one vote.

“The results of these by-elections show that if there are at least two deputies in the conservative faction in the parliament who vote against the government, then it may be defeated by pushing forward its bills,” Ananeva predicted.

The Conservative Party has been in power in the UK for over 9 years. As a result of the early elections in 2017, the Conservatives lost a direct parliamentary majority in the House of Commons. However, the Tories managed to conclude a political alliance with the Democratic Unionist Party.

"Do not change their decision"

It is worth noting that the new head of the British government - the leader of the Conservative Party, Boris Johnson - has recently stressed that it will be possible to avoid “tough” Brexit only if the European Union offers some compromise options for the deal.

According to him, in the event that Brussels and London cannot come to a consensus, the UK "should be ready to leave without a deal." At the same time, he stated that the actions of Great Britain will largely depend on the decision of the European Union.

Recall that a few days before this statement, the head of the UK government promised to conclude a new brexit agreement and form a partnership with European states.

“We will fulfill the promises made by Parliament to the people: to leave the EU by October 31 ... And we will conclude a new deal, an improved deal that will increase the opportunities after Brexit and allow us to create a new partnership with the rest of Europe based on free trade and general support” - Johnson said in his speech on the occasion of taking office.

In turn, the European Union spoke out against this initiative of the head of the British Cabinet, calling the policy demands inadmissible. It is reported by Sky News, citing a letter from the EU’s chief negotiator for brexit Michel Barnier to the diplomats of the European Union states. In the document, Johnson’s statements are described as “warlike”. In addition, Barnier accused the British Prime Minister of trying to "put pressure on the unity of the 27 EU countries."

“The option without a deal will never be the choice of the EU, but we all have to be ready for all scenarios,” the letter says.

• EU Brexit Principal Negotiator Michelle Barnier
• Reuters
• © Francois Lenoir

In turn, a number of analysts believe that the European Union will not offer London a compromise solution.

“Brussels has already expressed its protest against Johnson’s statement about concluding a new deal with the merger and will not change his decision,” said Vladimir Schweitzer, head of the department of social and political research at the Institute of Europe, RAS, in an interview with RT.

Elena Ananyeva adheres to a different point of view. In her opinion, despite the fact that the European Union refuses to change the agreement, it is ready to make concessions on the second part of the package of agreements with London.

“The political declaration concerns the future relations of the EU and Britain, but it has no legally binding force,” the analyst explained in an interview with RT.

"Time-consuming procedure"

The day before, the Minister of Finance of the United Kingdom, Sajid Javid, said that his department would allocate an additional £ 2 billion to leave the UK out of the EU without a deal, adding that the country was thus “strengthening preparations” for this scenario.

However, experts agree that, despite the measures taken, “hard” brexit will have extremely negative consequences for both Britain and the European Union. At the same time, the parties will not be able to predict all possible aspects of a “divorce,” analysts are confident.

• UK Treasury Secretary Sajid Javid
• Reuters
• © Matt Dunham / Pool

“At first, both parties will have to be extremely difficult in this situation. Washington’s promises to help London cannot be taken seriously, as the United States lacks its own problems. One cannot count on the fact that US President Donald Trump will somehow solve the problem of Brexit for the British side, ”says Vladimir Schweitzer.

According to him, the process of leaving the UK from the EU will be quite “difficult and unpredictable.”

“When the British voted for Brexit, not everyone was aware of how time-consuming the procedure was. To cut the European economy in one fell swoop is impossible, because within it the countries are highly interconnected, ”Schweitzer explained in an interview with RT.

This view is shared by Elena Ananeva. According to her, as a result of “tough” Brexit hundreds of agreements concluded earlier between London and Brussels will be violated.

“In such a situation, the parties are unlikely to quickly agree - it will take at least several months to restore broken ties,” Ananeva said.

The expert recalled that "Britain has a trade deficit with the EU."

“Therefore, the kingdom decided to reorient to other countries that are not part of the union. However, even in this situation, London very soon will not be able to recover from the “hard” brexit, ”Ananeva concluded.