At the end of this year, Naftogaz is preparing for the complete cessation of the transit of Russian gas through the territory of Ukraine. This was stated by the company's executive director Yuri Vitrenko, correcting the statement of his subordinate Andrei Favorov.
“Unfortunately, we have to wait for the termination of transit through Ukraine not only in the first quarter of 2020, but generally after the end of 2019,” wrote Vitrenko on his Facebook page.
In his opinion, the position of Gazprom on this issue is due to political, not economic factors.
Earlier, the head of the Naftogaz gas division, Andrei Favorov, speaking at a conference in Toronto, warned that "there will be a failure in the transit of gas through Ukraine, which will last about three months."
According to Favorov, the Russian Gazprom is preparing for a difficult situation by accumulating additional amounts of fuel in European storages. They will be needed in case the transit through Ukraine will be temporarily suspended. The representative of Naftogaz, however, assured the Ukrainian public that Kiev is doing the same and already now the volume of accumulated reserves is supposedly 2.5-2.7 billion cubic meters more than last year.
"People will suffer"
However, the information provided by Favorov contradicts the information that the operator of the Ukrainian gas transmission system Ukrtransgaz announced a week earlier. They said that there was a critical shortage of blue fuel in the country. The country's monthly demand for gas is 240 million cubic meters, and only 152 million cubic meters were in storage at that time. The reason for the deficit is the debt to suppliers, which the operator can not repay.
It is worth noting that the optimism of Yuri Vitrenko was very restrained. In particular, he said that the preparation of Kiev for life without the transit of Russian gas was under threat due to a sharp reduction in the volume of fuel production in Ukraine itself - by 9.2%.
- Executive Director of Naftogaz Yuri Vitrenko
- globallookpress.com
- © Pavlo_bagmut / ZUMAPRESS.com
According to experts, attempts to link their own gas production and gas accumulation in storage facilities with the transit of Russian gas from the leadership of the Ukrainian company look rather strange. After all, transit gas is intended not for domestic consumption in Ukraine, but for deliveries to Europe. But here it is worth recalling the scheme, according to which Kiev is now buying blue fuel.
Existing contracts for the supply of gas to Ukraine and through its territory to the EU countries expire at the end of 2019. Formally, since 2015, Kiev is not a consumer of Russian gas, but buys fuel in the European Union. Former President Petro Poroshenko, under which this scheme was implemented, even put into himself the merit of getting rid of "gas dependence" on Moscow.
In fact, Ukraine continued to buy the same Russian gas, but already with a premium from European suppliers. As Russian President Vladimir Putin noted in April, Kiev often simply took away, as before, Russian gas in its previous volumes, but designated it in documents as a reverse from the EU.
“The reverse is virtual. Our gas, which goes to Western Europe, the gas pipe from the Soviet times, how is it arranged? There from the transit gas pipe are branches to the whole of Ukraine. This is an absolutely famous thing for professionals, ”the Russian president noted.
Experts hold the same opinion.
“The logic of Kiev is as follows: Ukraine has not bought Russian gas directly for several years, buying it on European trading floors. How, then, can one encounter interruptions? - Sergey Pravosudov, Director of the National Energy Institute, noted in a conversation with RT. “In fact, it is obvious that Ukraine takes the volume it needs from the transit pipe, and draws up this fuel as purchased abroad.”
However, after January 1, 2020, Gazprom will be free from previous commitments in terms of supplies to Ukraine. So, if Kiev does not directly buy gas from Moscow, then there simply will be no other source of fuel for it, since the filling of the Ukrainian gas transport system depends on the Russian Federation.
As the RT source believes in the Batkivshchyna party, as soon as gas transit is suspended, the population will see that Ukraine does not buy any blue fuel in Eastern European countries.
“The reverse exists only on paper. It is obvious that Naftogaz is purchasing the same Russian gas from European intermediaries. This is a political decision. Every economically literate person knows that if you buy a product directly, its cost is lower. But Ukraine, apparently, is ready to pay more. If Naftogaz finally breaks ties with Gazprom, Ukraine will remain without Russian, and without the so-called European gas. First of all, people who lose light and heating in winter will suffer, ”the source said.
"Must find a compromise"
Despite the risks associated with the purchase and transit of gas through Ukraine, Kiev for a long time complicated the negotiation process with Gazprom. In particular, as the head of the Russian government, Dmitry Medvedev, noted in early June, “endless legal disputes” on the terms of deliveries, in which Naftogaz repeatedly tried to draw a Russian company, prevented normal dialogue.
Recall that earlier the arbitration in Stockholm ordered Gazprom to pay the Ukrainian company $ 2.5 billion. The Russian side appealed this decision and filed counterclaims. Court proceedings will continue at least until the spring of 2021, when the next hearings will be held in the Swedish capital. However, Gazprom’s proposal to start negotiations with a clean slate and to go to the world Ukrainian side did not accept.
Moreover, on July 4, Yuri Vitrenko announced that Kiev would seek the fulfillment of the arbitration decision. He also accused Moscow of politicizing the negotiation process and called on "international partners" to support Ukraine.
Sources of RT in the political parties of Ukraine note that the panicked statements of Naftogaz representatives about the probable suspension of the transit of “blue fuel” are precisely intended for Western countries. Now the transit negotiations are held in a trilateral format with the participation of representatives of the EU.
“Vitrenko’s statement that transit may be suspended after 2019, and not in the first quarter of 2020, has no real reason. Indeed, there was no such information from Gazprom. In Kiev, they simply count on putting pressure on Brussels and asking for money to buy gas. It is not surprising that the construction of the Nord Stream - 2 bypasses Ukraine, ”said an RT source in the Popular Front party.
The RT source in the self-help party, in turn, notes that the position of Naftogaz may be linked to plans to transfer the Ukrainian GTS to external control.
“Prime Minister Vladimir Groisman initiated the resignation of Kobolev, but the Europeans stood up for him. Kobolev now has an important task - from 2020 to transfer the Ukrainian GTS to the management of a new operator, who will have to negotiate with Gazprom, ”the source said. - It is clear that the operator, if he appears, will be from the EU countries. Thus, Naftogaz offers its European partners to negotiate a transit with the gas supplier before it is too late. Otherwise, why make such loud statements? ”
As an expert in the field of energy Andrei Frolov suggested in a conversation with RT, there is another reason to disrupt any negotiations between Naftogaz and Gazprom. After the decision of the Stockholm arbitration, the management of Naftogaz issued a premium of $ 46 million. If the company goes to the world with Gazprom, they will be asked to return this money from its top management.
- Reuters
- © Gleb Garanich
At the same time, according to Sergey Pravosudov, Kiev in vain scares European consumers with the cessation of transit.
“The question is how long the contract will be signed, what volumes of transit will be fixed in it and what will be the transit rate. One way or another, the parties must find a compromise and sign some kind of contract. And in December, this will be done without fail, because no one really needs the problems. ”
Parliamentary factor
However, as experts admit, in addition to economic expediency, the political factor strongly influences the negotiations of Russia with Ukraine on gas.
“There is no economy at all in the dispute between Naftogaz and Gazprom,” Pravosudov states. “Even the fact that Ukraine does not buy Russian gas directly, but purchases it more expensively through European traders, is due solely to political reasons.”
According to Andrei Favorov, Naftogaz is ready for negotiations with Gazprom. But at the same time, a representative of the Ukrainian company emphasizes that their next stage can pass only after the special elections to the Verkhovna Rada, scheduled for July 21.
Earlier, the head of Gazprom Alexey Miller spoke about such a possibility. At a press conference on May 28, he noted that “substantive negotiations can be expected when a new government of Ukraine is formed.”
“The most important issue is the question of direct deliveries of Russian gas to the Ukrainian market, and in fact much depends on this issue. If Ukraine says no, then from the Russian side on the border between Russia and Ukraine, we will have no obligations on the relevant gas transmission capacities to supply these volumes, ”said the head of the Russian gas giant.
As Miller emphasized, according to the norms of European legislation, Kiev has already missed the opportunity to sign an agreement on gas transit to the EU countries by the end of the year. However, Russia leaves the possibility to extend the existing contract.
In the run-up to the parliamentary elections, there is no consensus among Ukrainian politicians about future gas purchases from Russia.
Earlier, many people negatively evaluated the reverse of Poroshenko. For example, former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko in February criticized the procurement scheme “through Mars” and promised to reduce gas prices for domestic consumers.
In June, the leader of Batkivshchyna, however, offered mutually exclusive solutions to the problem: producing its own natural fuel in order to compete with Russia on the EU gas market, or buying American liquefied gas after building LNG terminals in Odessa and Nikolaev.
In the party of Petro Poroshenko, “European solidarity” is also not welcome to Russian gas, considering it to be “suffocating”, albeit cheap. Poroshenko himself suggests simply continuing his scheme with reverse. The former president is confident that because of possible US sanctions against Nord Stream 2, Moscow simply cannot refuse transit through Ukraine.
In the pre-election ranking, the second party, the Opposition Platform - For Life, on the contrary, is counting on signing a direct contract with Russia. On June 7, the leaders of this political force, Yuriy Boyko and Viktor Medvedchuk, discussed with Alexey Miller the reduction of gas prices for Ukraine by 25%.
- Alexey Miller, Yuriy Boyko and Viktor Medvedchuk
- RIA News
- © Ekaterina Shtukina
In response, Zelensky’s representative in the Verkhovna Rada, Andrei Gerus, suggested that Boyko and Medvedchuk buy gas from Russia privately, without Naftogaz. However, later, on June 18, the Ukrainian president, during his visit to Germany, admitted that his team was conducting a dialogue with Moscow.
“Now we are negotiating, I believe that in the near future our groups will sit down, and I am sure that we will come to an agreement,” Zelensky was quoted as saying by strana.ua.
However, the Kiev authorities have not yet released any specific information on this issue. On July 4, in response to a corresponding request from the Ukrainian News publication, the presidential administration of Ukraine refused to provide information on negotiations with Russia on the gas issue.
According to Director of the Institute of CIS Countries Vladimir Zharikhin, the further course of negotiations between the Russian Federation and Ukraine on gas will largely depend on the outcome of the parliamentary elections.
“Ukraine is a parliamentary-presidential republic,” Zharikhin recalled in an interview with RT. - Glad will significantly affect the position of "Naftogaz." Both in Kiev and in Moscow they understand this perfectly. ”
As the RT source believes in the Radical Party, after the elections, Kiev’s position may change.
“It all depends on the new prime minister. If he thinks about the development of the economy and the welfare of the population, then it is obvious that Naftogaz will start negotiations with Gazprom. This is primarily beneficial to Ukraine itself. The chances for such a development are great, ”the source said.