Washington (AFP)
Who will succeed the French Christine Lagarde at the head of the International Monetary Fund? Most likely a European, but which one?
The executive director of the Washington institution was chosen Tuesday to take the reins of the European Central Bank (ECB). And even before the confirmation of his departure for Frankfurt, the games are open.
Since its creation in 1944, the nationality of the candidates has been decisive. A European has always been appointed to lead the IMF while an American has always headed the World Bank.
Although today contested by the emerging countries, this immutable sharing of role has led David Malpass, former US Under-Secretary of the Treasury, to the presidency of the World Bank last spring.
For the IMF, names, French, begin to circulate including the governor of the Bank of France Francois Villeroy de Galhau, the French politician and current European Commissioner Pierre Moscovici or Benoît Coeuré.
The latter, a member of the executive board of the ECB, could be forced to resign with the arrival of Christine Lagarde. "There is an unwritten rule that there can not be two people of the same nationality at the ECB," said AFP Carsten Brzesk, economist at Ing.
For the management of the IMF, "it must be a European," urges a French source on condition of anonymity while being careful not to vote on nationality.
"My point of view is that it should be open to anyone in the world," said Mark Sobel, a former treasury official under the Republican and Democratic administrations.
- Bulgarian option -
Realistically, however, he observes that "the ease with which the United States has preserved the duopoly (World Bank / IMF) means that the Europeans will certainly want to keep their hands" again this time.
And to criticize the attitude of emerging countries that neither make common front nor take the lead.
So far, five of the eleven IMF leaders have been French nationals. And, in 75 years of existence of this international institution, it is they who have served the longest.
At the IMF, however, some voices advance another name, the Bulgarian Kristalina Georgieva. "Certainly, it is fully associated with the World Bank", she even held the interim presidency before the arrival of David Malpass, it is said internally. "But she is extremely respected, appreciated and could reach consensus."
If she were selected, it would only be the second woman to occupy these positions after Christine Lagarde.
The choice of a French non could also appease the possible criticisms that France arrogates too many positions within prestigious institutions.
However, this would not be unprecedented in history since between 1991 and 1995, French were simultaneously present at the head of the IMF, the OECD, the European Commission and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development .
The executive committee of the IMF comprises 24 directors representing the 189 members, only Washington, Tokyo (6.15%) and Beijing (6.09%) representing their country alone.
Agustin Carstens, a former Mexican executive of the Mexican central bank, believes that it is "urgent" to reform the IMF to give more voice to emerging countries and thus improve the legitimacy of the fund.
In principle, the selection process for a new Director General is "open" and "merit-based". Nominations from all member countries are also admissible in theory.
The right candidate must also boast of an "exceptional career path", and demonstrate the skills of indispensable diplomacy to lead an international institution.
For now, no indication on the calendar has been given.
Christine Lagarde's candidacy for the ECB must first be formally validated by the European finance ministers, probably next week.
Then Mrs Lagarde will have to be auditioned by the European Parliament. This could happen by the end of July.
Finally, his appointment will have to be approved at a European Council, in October a priori, for taking office in November.
While waiting for the arrival of a new managing director at the IMF, it is David Lipton, 65, who officiates.
The first Deputy Director General since September 1, 2011, he was President Obama's special assistant and worked in the US Treasury under the Clinton administration from 1993 to 1998.
? 2019 AFP