“Retreat Late”: Can the US Congress Hinder the Implementation of the Nord Stream 2 Project?

The Foreign Affairs Committee of the United States House of Representatives unanimously supported the bill introducing sanctions against those involved in the Nord Stream 2 and Turkish Stream projects. If this document is adopted by Congress, owners and tenants of vessels involved in laying Russian pipelines at sea will be banned from entering the United States, and their assets in the territory under the jurisdiction of the United States will be arrested.

“By acting through intimidation and coercion, Russia is trying by means of energy dependence to keep our European allies hostage, and we all know that. The completion of the Nord Stream 2 and the Turkish Stream pipelines will create even greater danger for millions of Europeans, destabilizing the continent, ”said the author of the bill, Republican member Adam Kinzinger, speaking at a meeting of the Foreign Affairs Committee.

At the same time, the initiator of the sanction document criticized Berlin.

“Germany, the cornerstone of our transatlantic alliance, is using the Nord Stream 2 project to gain a competitive advantage over its European partners. Undoubtedly, such actions negatively affect European unity, ”Kinzinger argues.

The pipeline for the Nord Stream - 2 under the Baltic Sea is currently being built by the Swiss company Allseas, the project website reports. In the works involved her two ships - Solitaire and Pioneering Spirit. Commissioning of the Nord Stream - 2 is scheduled for the end of 2019. Gas will flow from Russia to Western Europe through Germany.

At the same time, the launch of the Turkish Stream is also expected. The offshore installation of this pipeline, which runs under the Black Sea from Russia to Turkey, was completed in November 2018. Undersea work also involved the company Allseas.

If Kinzinger’s bill is passed by Congress and signed by President Donald Trump, this will be the first restrictive measure introduced in the United States against Nord Stream 2 contractors. In 2017, the US Congress passed the CAATSA law (“On Counteracting US Oppositions through Sanctions”), but it did not hurt the interests of contractors, but was directed against investors building gas pipelines from Russia.

Chances of acceptance and execution

The probability that the congress will pass a bill is high, but not one hundred percent, experts say. Director of the F. Roosevelt Foundation for the Study of the USA at Moscow State University, Yury Rogulev, in an interview with RT, drew attention to the fact that Kinzinger is an ordinary member of the House of Representatives and does not belong to the party establishment.

“This is his personal initiative, and he is not even a senator. Members of the House of Representatives often propose different bills, including those relating to various kinds of sanctions, but not all of them are accepted. However, in this case the bill was passed by the Foreign Affairs Committee, and this is already more serious. Now everything depends on the alignment of forces in the congress, ”the expert says.

Despite the sufficient negative attitude of both Democrats and Republicans towards Russia, the law may not be adopted. Rogulev did not rule out that the congressmen would decide not to aggravate relations with the European Union, which have recently deteriorated noticeably due to the policy of Donald Trump.

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• © Joshua Roberts

An expert of the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Konstantin Blokhin agrees with the opinion of Yuri Rogulyov. In a conversation with RT, he noted that with sanctions against Russia and Iran, Americans are hitting bilateral relations between the EU and the United States.

“When Americans try to impose something on the European Union, it only leads to the fact that the unity of the West is undermined. Dictate relations with the EU, as practice has shown, does not work. As a rule, after any attempt by the United States to somehow put pressure on Europe, discussions begin there about the need for greater independence, about European NATO, etc., ”said Blokhin.

According to experts, another option is possible: when the law is passed, but not implemented in practice, since its execution is the prerogative of the US president.

“The Trump administration has not been actively using such a tool of foreign policy as sanctions lately. Still, the costs of using this tool are quite high. This clearly demonstrates, say, the situation around Iran. The resumption of US sanctions against Tehran, as is known, exacerbated the situation in the Middle East. Much will depend on the general atmosphere in relations between the United States and Russia. If the meeting between Trump and Vladimir Putin during the G-20 is quite favorable, Washington will not be in a hurry with the introduction of new sanctions, ”Rogulev believes.

The fate of almost completed projects

To break almost completed projects in any case will not succeed, experts say.

“Now construction is entering the final stage, the money has been spent big. Retreat late. This retreat is fraught with very large financial losses. Therefore, Germany, Austria, France, which need Russian gas pipelines, will oppose American sanctions, ”Rogulev believes.

However, the point is not only in construction costs, but also in the fact that projects are strategically important for EU countries, political scientists are sure.

“US sanctions can be taken, but in the end, the European Union will still finish building the Nord Stream 2 project, because for Germany it is a question of energy security and its survival. Energy supplies are carried out in coordination with Russia and do not depend on a single supplier, which Americans want to be, especially since the price of their energy resources is several times higher. Therefore, European investments in gas pipeline projects from Russia will block the damage from any sanctions, ”says Blokhin.

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At the same time, American pressure can be a catalyst for disputes within the European Union on the direction of the united European foreign policy, analysts say.

“It is clear that Poland and the Baltic States will support measures to disrupt any project that somehow links or seriously brings together the EU and Russia. They believe that this is a question of their security, so they are guided by the United States, ”says Rogulev.

However, from the point of view of many EU leaders, the disputes with Washington over Russian gas pipelines are not political, but purely economic.

According to Blokhin, the Americans say that while fighting the Nord Stream 2, they save Europe from the “domination of Russia”, however, in Europe itself this fight is interpreted as Trump’s attempt to eliminate the competitor and impose liquefied natural gas from Europe on the United States.

“In Germany they see that the US president wants to use Europe as a“ cash cow ”of the American economy. The Germans do not like this, they themselves want to choose both gas suppliers and the price for it. Russian gas is much cheaper than American LNG. Therefore, the economy wins in the struggle of politics and economics, ”concluded the expert.