“Getting to normalization": what issues will world leaders discuss at the G20 summit in Osaka

On June 28—29, the next G20 summit will take place in the Japanese city of Osaka. For the first time, the meeting of leaders of the 20 largest economies in the world will be held in Japan. Among the topics that the organizers of the summit brought to the agenda of the international forum: the future of the world economy and global development, international trade and innovation, environmental protection and energy issues, employment problems and the role of women in the economy, as well as health issues. As the summit host, Prime Minister of Japan Abe Shinzo, stressed on the eve, world leaders will discuss the creation of rules for the digital economy.

“The agenda of the G20 summit will be formed from traditional issues: the problem of poverty, overcoming poverty, overcoming economic inequalities, climate change, etc.,” said Professor MSU professor in a conversation with RT.

“But the most interesting, of course, will be on the sidelines at the level of bilateral and trilateral meetings,” the expert emphasizes.

"Reconciliation hours"

The anticipated meeting between the presidents of Russia and the United States, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, has become one of the topics of the future summit that is most widely discussed in the world media.

• Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin
• Reuters
• © Kevin Lamarque

Back in May, President Trump expressed a desire to meet with his Russian counterpart in Osaka. However, until the last moment there were no concrete proposals on this score from the American side. Only on June 25, a representative of the White House told reporters that Trump intends to discuss regional security issues at a meeting with Putin: the situation in Iran, Ukraine, Syria, the Middle East as a whole and, possibly, Venezuela. At the same time, according to the American side, the meeting of the two presidents will not be full-format.

Assistant to the President of Russia Yury Ushakov noted on June 26 that the talks between Putin and Trump will be held on June 28 in the morning Moscow time after the first meeting of the G20 summit "in the negotiating area for the leaders in one of the rooms."

“The questions are logical: the general state of bilateral affairs, strategic stability, and numerous regional conflicts — here, Syria, Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Venezuela, of course, the Iranian problem,” Ushakov outlined the negotiation agenda.

As Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian president, noted on June 16, it is possible that Putin’s and Trump’s talks will be held upright. However, in this case, they will not be able to fully discuss all priority topics. The last time the presidents fully communicated "one on one" in August last year at the Helsinki summit.

On June 24, talks were held in Jerusalem between Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev and Presidential Adviser on National Security John Bolton. According to the American, this meeting was the next stage of preparation for the Russian-American summit in Osaka. They discussed issues of strategic stability and arms control, as well as regional problems.

The next day, Bolton, Patrushev, their Israeli counterpart Meir Ben-Shabbat, as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed the situation in Syria separately. As Netanyahu noted after the meeting, he expects Trump and Putin to discuss the withdrawal of foreign troops from Syria at a meeting in Osaka. Also in part of the country are the military in Turkey and the United States.

“We have the widest range of issues for discussion and the main one: reaching a steady normalization of bilateral contacts and making them regular,” commented RT the prospects for Russian-American summit talks at the Director of the Institute of Strategic Research and Forecasts of RUDN Dmitry Dmitry Egorenkov. - If the meeting between Trump and Putin takes place, then another “reconciliation of hours” between Moscow and Washington will take place on a wide range of topics. Perhaps it will be possible to reach a more substantive discussion on a number of individual issues, including on antiterrorism, on interaction in Syria. ”

According to Andrei Manoylo, Trump is interested in Russia as an intermediary in working on issues that the United States is not able to solve alone. According to the expert, such problems include the complex relations between Washington and Beijing, the stalled denuclearization of the DPRK and the heightening of tensions around Iran.

"The proposal to directly organize a reboot of relations with Russia, I think, will not follow from Trump," Manoylo said.

Not just Trump

Donald Trump is not the only world leader who intends to hold talks with Vladimir Putin on the margins of the G20 summit. As previously reported by the Office of the President of the Republic of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is also awaiting a meeting with the Russian President.

On June 13, during the SCO summit in Bishkek, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited his Russian counterpart to talk during the G-20 forum, and also organize a meeting in its fields in the format of Russia-India-China (RIC).

• Narendra Modi, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping
• Reuters
• © Mikhail Klimentyev

Will accept Vladimir Putin and summit host Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo. The Japanese Foreign Ministry announced this meeting in May. Also, as Dmitry Peskov announced on June 25, Vladimir Putin’s talks with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will be held in Osaka.

Also, the intention to meet with the Russian leader said French President Emmanuel Macron. On June 26, the likelihood of such a meeting was announced at the Elysee Palace.

In turn, Russia's permanent representative to the EU, Vladimir Chizhov, noted that representatives of the European Union, in particular President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker, might be interested in negotiations with Vladimir Putin. An exchange of views with Jean Claude Juncker was also announced by Yuri Ushakov.

As Ushakov stressed on June 26, at the G20 summit, Vladimir Putin will hold about 10 meetings with world leaders. He confirmed the president’s participation in meetings of the RIC and BRICS formats (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), as well as his meetings with Abe, Macron, Erdogan, British Prime Minister Teresa May, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi , the head of South Korea, Mun Zhe Ino, the president of South Africa, Cyril Ramofoza, and Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud.

According to Yury Ushakov, at meetings with Makron and Merkel, the situation in Ukraine will be discussed, in particular, the implementation of the Minsk leadership by the new leadership of the country, Iran and Syria. With the Egyptian President, the Russian leader will discuss the full-scale resumption of air traffic, and with the Saudi crown prince, his scheduled visit to Riyadh and the “energy issue” scheduled for October. After the meeting with Abe, “interesting commercial agreements” will be signed.

“There will be more meetings on our feet with various representatives, including meetings during the ceremonial reception, dinner, concert, there will be an opportunity to step aside and talk to someone,” promised Yury Ushakov.

According to Andrei Manoylo, the stressful schedule of meetings of the Russian leader at the G20 summit is due to the fact that in the world Russia is perceived as a kind of "alternative" to the United States.

“All who have difficulties in relations with the United States, go to Russia. At the same time, Putin enjoys unquestioned authority in world politics, he is considered a very experienced and most influential politician, ”the expert says.

American sight

According to experts, one of the features of the current G20 summit is that it is taking place against the backdrop of serious perturbations in global political and economic processes. One way or another, these problems affect almost all members of the G-20.

“We should not forget that the G20 is primarily an“ economic interest club ”in an expanded composition,” said Dmitry Egorchenkov. “Therefore, issues of crisis of international economic relations, trade wars, various prohibitive measures, protectionism policies and everything else that has become a distinctive feature of our economic international reality will be discussed.”

Thus, the trade war between the United States and China may affect all participants in global economic processes, the expert notes. Therefore, it will be tensely follow the world community.

On June 18, after telephone conversations between Donald Trump and PRC Chairman Xi Jinping, both leaders confirmed that they would meet in Osaka. At the same time, according to Trump, this meeting will be held in an “expanded format”. However, as head of the US Department of Commerce Wilbur Ross noted in early June, Washington does not expect that a specific trade agreement will be concluded after the talks between the two leaders.

• Reuters
• © Jason Lee

According to Dmitry Egorchenkov, now "it is the changes in the US approaches related to the Trump presidency that raises a huge number of questions from a variety of players - from China to the European partners of the Americans."

India pays special attention to the prospects for Donald Trump talks with Narendra Modi. In early June, the economic relations of Washington and Delhi became complicated after Donald Trump ordered to abolish the tariff concessions for this country under the General System of Preferences (GSP) of the United States. India, in response, introduced trade duties on 28 American goods. At the same time, the United States, as experts note, is interested in cooperation with India, which is viewed as a counterweight to China’s influence in the regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. It is expected that these issues will be discussed in the framework of a trilateral meeting of the leaders of India, Japan and the United States on the margins of the forum in Osaka.

In addition, the American leader intends to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman, Brazilian President Zhaire Bolsonar, Abe Shinzo and Erdogan. According to US Permanent Representative to NATO Kay Bailey Hutchison, at the last meeting, Donald Trump could discuss with his Turkish counterpart issues of supplying Ankara with Russian S-400 air defense systems. The United States strongly opposes the procurement of these Russian weapons by its NATO ally.

Field for dialogue

In turn, at the meeting of Trump with the crown prince of the Saudi kingdom one of the hottest topics on the world agenda will be discussed - the situation around Iran. Riyadh supports Washington in pressure on the Islamic Republic. Since early May, the United States has been increasing military pressure on Iran. Twice during this time in mid-May and mid-June, the United States accused Tehran of attacking tankers, including those carrying Saudi hydrocarbons.

The forum’s hosts, the Japanese, also intend to make the discussion of the situation in the Persian Gulf one of the most important topics of the summit. Japan was previously one of the main hydrocarbon consumers from both Iran and the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, and is interested in reducing confrontation. As Secretary-General of the Cabinet of Ministers of Japan Yoshihide Suga noted on June 25, Japan “intends to continue making diplomatic efforts to stabilize the situation, as well as to reduce tensions in the Middle East as a whole in cooperation with the United States and other interested countries,” TASS said. In June, Abe Shinzo visited Iran, trying to mediate between Tehran and Washington.

The situation around Iran is also going to be discussed by the French leader Emmanuel Macron with the US president.

According to Andrei Manoylo, “the G20 is an effective international forum that takes the interests of the leading countries of the world into account as much as possible.” Within its framework, as the expert believes, everything matters: both direct contact of leading world leaders, and backstage meetings, and discussion of topics important from the point of view of global development in plenary meetings.

According to Dmitry Yegorchenkov, the main task of the G20 is to be a platform for dialogue among world leaders. And the organization has always coped well with this mission.

“The G20 was formed at the time as a response to the international financial crisis of 1999, as an alternative broader platform for balancing the conflicting economic interests of major economies outside the G7. In the "twenty" there are Asian tigers and a huge number of other states that are not as noticeable as the United States, but which affect the overall state of the world economy, the expert emphasizes. “Such a dialogue format allows for balancing interests more effectively than is done within the framework of the G7.”