"Forcing a situation does not work": how the US intends to create an anti-Iranian coalition

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is gathering a coalition that can help the White House in the fight against Iran. He told this to journalists on the eve of his visit to Saudi Arabia, from where the diplomat will travel to the United Arab Emirates.

At the same time, Pompeo stressed that he intends to involve in this coalition not only the countries of the Middle East region, but also the states of Asia and Europe.

“We will discuss with them the issue of ensuring consistency of strategy and the creation of a global coalition, which would include not only the countries of the Persian Gulf, but also Europe and Asia, and which would realize how difficult the upcoming fight against the state most actively supporting terrorism will be” quotes the US Secretary of State for the Associated Press.

According to Pompeo, the goal of his talks with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates is to prevent Iran from having “resources to heighten the fear of creating nuclear weapons and a missile program.”

"We will not allow him to receive the necessary resources for this, which will allow us to protect American citizens and American interests around the world," said Pompeo.

Experts believe that the US Secretary of State can really enlist certain support from the Arab states and Israel, who view Iran as their adversary. Nevertheless, Washington can hardly count on full-scale cooperation with Europe in this area, expert of the Center for Security Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences Konstantin Blokhin said.

“Traditional US allies in the region, such as Saudi Arabia and Israel, are unlikely to participate in large-scale military actions — they are strong, but in words. All the dirty work will still have to be done by the Americans, ”the expert is sure.

In turn, the military political scientist, head of the department of political science and sociology of the PRUE. Plekhanov Andrey Koshkin suggested that the main goal of creating a Middle Eastern military alliance under the auspices of the United States is to intimidate Iran.

“Donald Trump after the inauguration set the task of creating an“ Arab NATO ”, whose mission would be to contain Tehran. And today, the United States is firmly raising the question of the formation of a certain team that would support the Americans in a possible large-scale war against Iran. I am convinced that Washington will connect the North Atlantic Alliance here in order to expand its capabilities, and Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United Arab Emirates will support this initiative. The United States will collect on paper many allies who will be obliged to perform certain actions and make material contributions, ”said Koshkin in an interview with RT.

Sanction pressure

Earlier, Pompeo promised to increase economic pressure on Iran. According to him, Washington will strengthen it until the authorities of this country agree to negotiate.

“When the Iranian regime decides to abandon violence and meet our diplomacy with diplomacy, he knows how to contact us. Until then, the diplomatic isolation from our side, as well as the economic pressure on the regime, will only increase, ”said his official statement posted on the US Department of State website.

In turn, Donald Trump also promised to introduce new economic sanctions against Tehran on Monday, June 24. He wrote about this on his Twitter, once again reminding him of his negative attitude towards the nuclear deal with Iran.

• Donald trump
• Reuters
• © Carlos Barria

“Iran should not have nuclear weapons! Under Obama’s dreadful plan, they would have had it in a few years, and the current verification mechanisms are unacceptable. We are introducing extensive new sanctions against Iran on Monday, ”Trump wrote on June 22.

Iran cannot have Nuclear Weapons! There is a possibility that they will be verified. Sanctions on Iran on Monday. I look forward to the day that .....

It is worth noting that at the end of May, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that Iran had never sought to possess nuclear weapons.

The “Obama Plan” that Trump mentioned is the Nuclear Deal, or the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (DFID). It was signed by Iran and the United States with the participation of Russia, China, Germany, France and the UK.

The agreement stipulated that Tehran would abandon its nuclear program in exchange for easing the sanctions regime on the part of Washington. However, in 2018, Trump unilaterally pulled the United States out of the deal. This decision of the American leader has caused a colossal international response, including in Europe, political scientists remind.

“It was important for the US President to take this step to demonstrate that he resolves issues on his own terms. Trump in this matter now wants to try to achieve at least some success, but this is hardly likely, because similar pressure algorithms have not brought results either in Venezuela or in the DPRK, ”explained Blokhin.

Kick back

The confrontation between the United States and Iran sharply escalated after the incident on June 20, when the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran stated that it had shot down an American reconnaissance drone RQ-4 Global Hawk, which had appeared in the airspace of the Islamic Republic. In turn, Washington claims that the unit was shot down over international waters.

The next day, Donald Trump on Twitter reported that his generals supposedly gave him a choice of three targets in Iran, but he decided not to strike. According to the American president, he canceled the attack, having learned that at least 150 people could become its victims. Such a response to the downed drone Trump considered disproportionate.

The presidential decision provoked a broad discussion in the American media and political circles: Trump's supporters welcomed this step, while opponents regarded it as a manifestation of weakness.

Soon, Trump said that he had not “withdrawn” the order to strike at Iran, but only “suspended” it.

“I didn’t“ recall ”the blow to Iran, as some incorrectly report, but only stopped its progress at this stage!” He wrote on Twitter on June 23.

The sudden change of decisions and the lack of a unified position on the Iranian issue suggests that Trump does not want to spoil his own image before the 2020 elections, but did not decide on what course to follow, suggested Konstantin Blokhin in an interview with RT.

“Now the election campaign is unfolding in the USA. If you start an armed conflict, then Trump will earn a reputation as an instigator of war and is unlikely to be supported by voters. In 2016, he won the presidential election precisely because of anti-war slogans, ”explained the expert.

On June 24, Trump announced that he was signing a decree imposing “hard sanctions” on Iran, reports Reuters. It is noted that restrictive measures will be directed against the country's supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

Internal contradictions

At the same time, the American media, citing anonymous sources at the White House, began to spread information that the issue of the prospects for confrontation with Iran caused controversy within the Trump administration. CNN TV channel claimed that the president wanted to avoid escalation, and national security adviser John Bolton, by contrast, advocated strikes against the Islamic Republic.

• Donald Trump, Mike Pompeo and John Bolton
• Reuters
• © Jonathan Ernst

At the same time, CNN sources claim that Secretary of State Pompeo, Vice President Mike Pence and the new and. Have not decided on their position. about. Secretary of Defense Marc Esper.

“In the Trump administration there are hawks, ultra-right, radicals, which include not only Pompeo and Bolton, there are other neoconservatives who are known for their hostile and aggressive attitude not only to Iran, but to the whole world.” It is obvious that the presence of hawks in the president’s entourage is a guarantee for the establishment that the head of the White House will continue to pursue Washington’s foreign policy along the same trajectory. However, Trump is far from the kind of person who could be controlled, controlled or manipulated, ”notes Konstantin Blokhin.

Andrey Koshkin adheres to the similar point of view. According to him, there are always hawks in the White House who are trying to record some significant presidential decisions at their own expense.

“It is not known what decision Trump himself will take on this issue, since today the internal agenda for him is much higher priority than foreign policy statements. All his actions in the Middle East are now aimed only at strengthening their own positions inside the country, since the election campaign was launched, ”the expert says.

Konstantin Blokhin believes that by strengthening the sanctions and threatening Iran with a military strike, Trump expects to force Tehran to sit at the negotiating table.

At the same time, Andrei Koshkin considers unlikely diplomatic surrender by Iran.

"The Iranian issue will be resolved when the Americans see that their model of forcing a situation does not work," concluded Blokhin.