Was the war between the United States and Iran narrowly avoided? On Thursday, an American drone was shot down by the Tehran regime. Donald Trump had given the order to launch military strikes against Iran in the night from Thursday to Friday, before changing at the last moment. On Europe 1, Frédéric Encel, lecturer at Science Po and PhD in geopolitics, assesses the possibilities that the situation degenerates.
"Iran's last resort would be the closure of the Strait of Hormuz"
For Frédéric Encel, Donald Trump's reverse in the night can be explained by two assumptions. "Either it's the tactics of the fool at the weak." A little like in the 1970s when Richard Nixon had tried to make the North Vietnamese government believe he had gone crazy and could launch the atomic bomb. , says the academic.
"The second hypothesis is that Trump has estimated that the cost of entering the war in the region would be too great, including for the United States," says the specialist. Indeed, in case of striking, Iran has political tools in its possession to change the balance of power. "Iran's last resort would be the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with a price per barrel that would rise from $ 70 to maybe $ 100 to $ 200. Many allies of the Americans would be highly impacted," said Frédéric Encel .
"The potential cost of a high-intensity war is calculated"
The lecturer still estimates that "the risks of climbing are measured". "Iran has a relatively cautious foreign policy," said Frédéric Encel. "On the American side and the US allies, even if some want to fight with Iran, we calculate the potential cost of a high-intensity war," he explains, "and then there is also Russia: it is not a military ally of Iran, but it is still an important partner ". All these elements that push the administration of Donald Trump to consider with a lot of precautions an armed conflict against Iran.