How close the conflict between the US and Iran has moved, showed the appearance of Inspector General Eberhard Zorn on Wednesday morning in the Bundestag Defense Committee: Zorn told the deputies that the Bundeswehr had ceased its training mission in Iraq because of the Iran crisis. The soldiers deployed near the capital Baghdad and in the north of the country should therefore remain in their camps, service trips outside were drastically restricted.
The Bundeswehr is responding to the escalation between Washington and Tehran. The US accuses Iraq's neighbor Iran of planning "imminent" attacks in the region, most recently US warships and long-range bombers have been deployed to the Gulf. A few years ago, after Donald Trump resigned from Iran's nuclear deal with Iran, negotiated with Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Russia and China, Tehran responded with a partial exit a few days ago.
From the point of view of Berlin the situation threatens to get out of control - for this the suspension of the Bundeswehr mission in Iraq is as much a sign as for the loyalty towards the ally USA. For quite a long time they had talked to the coalition committee on Tuesday evening about the crisis between Washington and Tehran, is heard. It is "jointly decided that the Iran conflict, despite serious differences among the parties to the conflict, will be resolved peacefully and diplomatically," it said in a statement by the CDU, CSU and SPD.
The Social Democrats, in particular, publicly admonish not to underestimate the explosive nature of the conflict. Party and faction leader Andrea Nahles spoke before the coalition committee on the US-Iran crisis and warned of escalation - in the direction of Tehran as well as Washington. However, one does not want to be too pointed towards the Trump government either - after all, the Americans are still close partners of Germany, unlike Iran.
The Federal Government now rates the conflict as a fire hazard. "A thoughtless step from either side can trigger a war," says a senior official. Foreign Minister Heiko Maas (SPD) called the situation on Wednesday in the Bundestag "extremely serious." The round of intelligence services in the Chancellor's office dealt, according to participants on Tuesday with the topic, head of government Angela Merkel (CDU) can be supplied by the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) a daily secret bulletin with the latest findings.
What the analysts fear the most is an unwanted escalation. As a possible horror scenario, it is often said that one of the many extremist groups in Iraq is attacking an American base or the Embassy in Baghdad. The US would immediately interpret such an attack - no matter who perpetrated it - as a provocation of Iran and make a counter-attack. At the latest then, a kind of domino effect could be set in motion, which is unstoppable. The consequences could particularly affect Germany, not least because of the then expected new refugee movements.
Hardliners dominate on both sides
From Berlin's point of view, the formation of the two conflicting parties entails enormous risks. In Iran, according to the analysis, President Hassan Rohani, as leader of the moderate forces, is so under pressure that he can hardly act. In addition, the secret services are increasingly questioning how much Rohani still has control over the Revolutionary Guards, who ultimately control the military but also the allied militia abroad.
In Washington, the situation looks similarly bleak. It is becoming increasingly clear that security policy presidential adviser John Bolton and foreign minister Mike Pompeo are now single-handedly in command of foreign policy, both of whom are self-confessed hardliners in Iran. In the past, the then Defense Minister Jim Mattis slowed down, he prevented after a rocket attack on the US Embassy in Baghdad months ago an escalation by the United States. Meanwhile, the experienced military was deposed, his successor is too weak to stop the hawks.
JIM LO SCALZO / EPA-EFE / REX
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo: Hardliner in Iran issues
What enlarges the concerns of the Federal Government: A kind of red telephone between Washington and Tehran for the absolute crisis case is reported no longer exists. According to information from coalition circles, this "back channel", ie a communication basis on which information can be exchanged directly in a direct way, was capped by the Trump administration.
All the more, Berlin could again slip into the role of mediator that has been played between the USA and Iran together with other EU countries in the past. Earlier this year, a financial firm called Instex was jointly formed to enable Tehran to enter into business despite US sanctions against Iran.
In fact, the Foreign Office is endeavoring not to break off the discussion with the Iranian leadership. In recent days, the embassy has held many talks, it is said, even the new Political Director Jens Plötner telephoned with his Iranian counterpart. Berlin reiterated that the European partners Tehran can only help if Iran adheres to the agreements of the nuclear deal.
Coalition foreign politicians bet on German role
The same is true of the coalition's leading foreign politicians. "Germany now has to save the nuclear deal as an obstetrician," says Union faction vice-president Johann Wadephul. It is obvious that an influential and at the same time prudent actor is missing on the international stage, says SPD parliamentary vice Rolf Mützenich. The federal government must make it clear to Tehran and Washington "that further burdens have to be avoided in this already strained situation". His Union counterpart Wadephul believes, "Trump's appeal to Tehran to call him shows that the US is approachable."
Mützenich also uses a common European approach: "You can only exercise a limited and moderating influence together," he says. Perhaps the proven E3 format - ie Germany, France and the United Kingdom - provides a suitable stage for German foreign policy from the negotiations with Iran and the current membership in the UN Security Council.
CDU leader Wadephul also calls for an extension of the agreement with Tehran: "We should supplement the agreement with a regional policy part: this would give Iran security guarantees if it withdraws from neighboring countries." That, Wadephul believes, "also served the security of Israel and is therefore also in the German interest".