United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum
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These are crucial hours for Britain and Prime Minister Theresa May. After months of negotiations, the House of Commons votes on the Brexit Treaty with the EU that they have negotiated. Since early noon, MEPs are already debating - starting at 9pm a decision is expected. British media report that dozens of politicians want to vote their own party against the deal. Therefore, a majority is not expected.
"I believe with every fiber of my being that the course I have set is the right one for our country and all our people," May said after presenting the deal in November. But she has failed to get a majority of parliamentarians on this course. May may be facing the shambles of politics.
What you need to know before the vote - the overview.
The unlikely majority
Review: Actually, the deputies should have voted on December 11 on the withdrawal agreement. But May postponed the appointment at short notice - she saw no chance at that time for a majority. The extra weeks did not improve their situation. A majority for the agreement negotiated by May is unlikely.
For MPs from all parties reject the deal: About 100 members of their own faction have spoken out against it. Although some conservative doubters want to vote for the contract in the meantime. In the rejection front rank but most of the MPs of the opposition Labor Party, the Scottish SNP and the Liberal Democrats.
May needs 320 votes for her deal in the House of Commons. The alliance of its Tories with the Northern Irish DUP comes to 326 seats.
How scolded her standing in the party, she was already felt in December: At the faction-wide vote of no confidence of the Conservatives voted 117 of the 316 Tory MPs against the party leader.
May had warned MEPs once again in a speech on Monday before a rejection of the Treaty. The agreement was "not perfect" and "a compromise," she acknowledged. "But when the history books are written, people will look at this Parliament's decision and ask: Did we obey the people's vote to leave the European Union?
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The Irish border as the core problem
The biggest criticism of May's opponents is the emergency solution for the border with Ireland formulated in the draft treaty.
During the negotiations, Brussels had insisted on a so-called backstop. This is an emergency solution: should London and the EU not agree on a free trade agreement in further talks by the end of 2020, Britain would remain in the EU Customs Union and Northern Ireland in the single market. In this way a hard border on the Irish island should be avoided (read more here).
The Brexit hard-liners, in particular, emphasize that the UK could remain chained to the EU forever. In addition, they fear for the unity of Britain, should there be a special arrangement for Northern Ireland.
Vote of no confidence, new elections, renegotiations - the scenarios
The vote is likely to plunge the UK and the EU deeper into the crisis: a fresh start in parliament is possible, a vote of no confidence against May, a chaotic EU exit - or even a move away from Brexit.
After a vote defeat , May is obliged to submit a "Plan B" within three days following a parliamentary motion approved last week.
If her defeat is not too crunching, she could try to get more concessions from the EU and then make a second attempt to accept the Brexit Treaty. However, several EU countries already made it clear that they did not want to renegotiate. May May the deal despite all attempts not through Parliament, threatens March 29, 2019 a chaotic EU exit without agreement.
The opposition Labor Party wants to apply for a vote of no confidence in May in the event of a rejection "soon," as opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn had announced. According to media reports, this could already be the case on Wednesday. Should May fail in a vote of no confidence, the lower house would have 14 days to bring about a new government majority. Otherwise, there must be new elections.
EU-friendly MPs want to push through a second referendum with a no to the treaty. Many Brexit hardliners in May's party, however, prefer a disorderly EU exit than the negotiated contract.