- Tweeter
republish
Historic day yesterday Wednesday in Venezuela where tens of thousands of people took to the streets at the call of the Speaker of Parliament Juan Guaido, to demonstrate against the regime of Nicolas Maduro. Juan Guaido proclaimed himself "interim president" and was immediately recognized by a significant party of Latin American neighbors and by the United States. A thunderclap announcing new shocks in the Venezuelan political crisis. The eyes are now on the army which appears as a potential referee.
The excitement of the successful demonstration of the opposition, Wednesday, January 23, has fallen. The self-proclamation of Juan Guaido as interim president, and the reaction of Nicolas Maduro a few hours later were followed by clashes between protesters and police , reports Benjamin Delille , our correspondent in Caracas. This was the case in the capital but scenes of violence were recorded throughout Venezuela and continued until late in the evening.
Nicolas Madura has called for his side to close ranks against what he calls a "coup". The Supreme Court of Justice, close to the Chavista power, ordered the Attorney General's office to open a criminal investigation against all the opposition members of the National Assembly for usurping the presidential office. According to several Venezuelan media, an arrest warrant was issued against Juan Guaido. Information not yet confirmed by the authorities. Then, the regime tries to mobilize its sympathizers: Diosdado Cabello, number two of the Socialist party, called the population to a vigil to defend the presidential palace. This call has apparently not been followed. The surroundings of Miraflores were deserted that night.
The military asserts itself as the referees of the political crisis
From now on, the country has two presidents who do not recognize each other. Venezuela is embarking on a path that raises as many hopes as worries. The hope for the opposition to see Nicolas Maduro leave, and the concern that this departure is through violent clashes with the police during the protests that are announced. Hope in the face for the Chavistas to get by with the seemingly unwavering support of the army, with the concern that it will eventually release President Maduro.
If the power of Nicolas Maduro has weakened in the context of an unprecedented terrible economic crisis, with inflation rates completely extravagant, which would reach 10 million this year, "the army has been extremely strengthened under Nicolas Maduro, " explains Thomas Posado, doctor of political science at Paris 8 University. " Most of the nationalized companies are under military control, one-third of Nicolas Maduro's government is made up of military personnel, mainly economic posts, public oil company PDVSA is itself led by a military ... So, yes, the military are today extremely powerful and they affirm themselves as the arbiters of the political crisis ".
A problem of democratic legitimacy
If Nicolas Maduro can rely on the army as "main support", in front of " Juan Guaido calls to the military, promises them the amnesty so that they rank behind him". Yesterday, during the day of mobilization, some units of the National Guard and the police joined the protesters in different provincial towns. But these actions remained minority. Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez renewed the support of the army to Nicolas Maduro.
This poses a problem of democratic legitimacy, says Thomas Posado. " If we are in a democratic regime, it is not the military who must choose the leader, but rather it would be the people, in a poll that would be transparent, democratic. What has not happened since 2015 in Venezuela .
After the popular festival that was the demonstration of January 23, it is quite possible that Venezuelans wake up on Thursday morning with a hangover. In particular when they will see the number of arrests, the number of wounded, and especially the number of dead in yesterday's clashes. According to human rights NGOs, the protests of the last two days have killed 13 people in Venezuela.