United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum
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In the end, it was just 13 minutes. 13 minutes, in which Theresa May talked, without saying much. In which the British Prime Minister once again made very clear what she does not want in view of Brexit, and in which she revealed little about what she wants instead. Thirteen minutes in which the packed Westminster House of Commons hoped for a response from the head of government, but got only one question: "How can we secure a majority in this House for a deal (with the European Union)?"
It's what it was like: Theresa May has no plan B. Instead, she made a paper boat from her Plan A and set it in the pond. Now she waits, where the wind blows from.
Many had expected otherwise from this speech of the head of government on Monday afternoon otherwise. After her historic vote defeat a week before, when two-thirds of Parliament tore up the divorce treaty she negotiated with the EU, May had announced that she would seek to reach out to the Brexit contingency for the first time ever with other parties.
DPA
Theresa May
A task made more difficult by the fact that Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of Labor's largest opposition party, refuses to talk as long as the government leaves the option on the table, if need be, to leave the EU without any contractual safeguards. And because May, in turn, had made it clear that she did not intend to prematurely abandon the core elements of her Brexit plan, there was basically no room for compromise.
First, close your own ranks
May, who has taken stubbornness to a whole new level, was tirelessly trying to break the stalemate over the weekend. From her county checkers she took members of the Cabinet, members of her Conservative party, and individual representatives of the opposition in prayer. She also tried to find out if she could win on the Labor side, if necessary, enough parliamentarians to compensate for the rebellion in their own ranks numerically.
Apparently in vain.
On Sunday evening, according to British media reports, she informed her ministers that she wanted to reclaim the Tory renegades and their de facto coalition partner, the Northern Irish DUP.
How exactly to do that, did not betray May on Monday, however. In her 13-minute statement, the 62-year-old merely said that she considers both a no-deal and a second referendum - which could lead to the rejection of Brexit - dangerous. She announced once again that she wanted to negotiate with the EU about the so-called backstop for the Northern Irish-Irish border. With this emergency solution, Northern Ireland would remain in the EU Customs Union for an indefinite period should London and Brussels be unable to agree on a free trade agreement by the end of 2020.
In order to demonstrate good will, May also promised to give Parliament more say in negotiating future relations with the EU. Labor lured her with the commitment not to damage workers' rights even after Brexit. And finally, the planned re-registration of the approximately 3.5 million EU citizens in the kingdom should be free of charge. Otherwise, she wants to continue talking - with whomever.
A bold thrust, however, a surprising plan that would be suitable to unite a majority of the lower house behind him: Nonsmoking. May, it seems, is no longer able to control the Brexit process. Others have to do it for them. Above all, the parliament.
Three ideas from the parliament
The lower house now has time until May next week to put May on a course - or even to force it. A number of performances go through the Westminster Palace, which will be put to the vote over the next few days. It is completely unpredictable whether there is a majority for at least one of them. And if only a theoretical one.
- For example, a nonpartisan group of MEPs are planning to make a contractless exit from the EU practically illegal without any transitional period - the so-called no deal. Should there be no agreement shortly before the Brexit date on March 29, the government would be forced to stop the exit process at the very last moment.
- Other parliamentarians want to claim the right to test in the lower house all possible Brexit variants: Such "finger pointing" would make it clear whether there is any way out of the parliamentary stalemate.
- A third group wants to encourage Mays deal with the EU but still agree, but with the considerable restriction, the time of Northern Irish backstop.
May is becoming more and more a mere spectator
The EU, which has hitherto strictly rejected any tightening of the withdrawal agreement, would therefore be under considerable pressure. The fact that the unity of the 27 remaining EU states is threatening to crumble gradually became clear on Monday: Poland's Foreign Minister suggested that the British be accommodated by limiting the backstop - which was immediately rejected by the Irish government.
Either way, in the UK, a development has begun, at the end Theresa May could only be Zaungast a spectacle called Brexit. The creeping transfer of power from the executive to the legislature - which is only possible because the country is governed not by a fixed constitution, but by habits and customs - is not without risk. But in the end maybe no alternative. And maybe May is not even so unhappy about it.
That at least suspected Yvette Cooper on Monday. May, Labor MEPs said, also wanted to prevent a no deal, but given the power structure in the conservative party, she did not know how. "Now she hopes we'll do that for her in parliament." The fact that even May would be finally done with that is a price many Members would pay more than willingly.
Graphic for Brexit poker