Theresa May after Brexit agreement: Get away again

United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum

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At the end of this evening everything should go very fast. No press conference, just a statement, says the British government in London. The Prime Minister and the members of her Cabinet are still sitting together on Downing Street.

It's about something historic in this already historic Brexit process: Theresa May has presented the deal with Brussels. Just under 585 pages on the question of how Britain and the European Union split up: radically or by mutual agreement. The Cabinet has to decide now, in the end, the ministers agree by a majority. And then? Just a few words.

The opposition parties had urged the Prime Minister to present their plan to the House of Representatives on Thursday in the House of Commons first, and nowhere else. When May enters the flash-light storm, she gives herself state-bearing. The agreement was the best that could be negotiated, she says. It was "in the national interest".

One can assume that she would have liked to have said more about her version of the day - before anyone else does that to her less well-disposed.

Because this day could have meant the end of May's term - and no one can really say whether it still does not amount to it. Too many adversaries has the Prime Minister, even in their own ranks.

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Already on Tuesday, May had tried to bring the skeptics in the government in line - especially the Brexit hardliners, to which the Prime Minister in the negotiations is too yielding. May initially ordered Cabinet members down to Downing Street. It was also about averting a revolt.

In the past few months, the whole dispute has come close to a point where the negotiations simply did not move forward: the future EU external border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.

Fences and checkers on the island - nobody wants anymore with regard to their history. Only: The British want at the same time out of the EU internal market and the customs union in order to be independent of EU law and to be able to forge their own international free trade agreements.

The aim is also to conclude such a trade deal with the EU, which makes customs controls at the inner-Irish border superfluous anyway. However, no one can foresee whether this will succeed before the end of the agreed transitional phase in December 2020. And then?

The EU, which has long been known, is pushing for a so-called backstop, a stopgap solution that in case of doubt prevents a hard border on the Irish island. What these should look like, the negotiators have now agreed. (Read more in the analysis from Brussels.)

What May submits is a classic compromise. If there is no timely agreement, the transitional period can be extended - or a catch-all solution will be adopted, leaving Britain as a whole bound up with the customs union, not just Northern Ireland, as initially envisaged by Brussels. Critics in the UK had feared that otherwise the UK could be split.

In return, the EU has asserted that London can not unilaterally exit from such an agreement. And: With the agreement, London is also continuing to stick to EU rules, such as agriculture and environmental issues.

May's ministers spend a lot of time on Wednesday, and each one of them speaks up. The speeches would have lasted unusually long, it is said later. It was even screamed. Several Cabinet members ultimately voted against the deal. The government remains divided.

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Also about possible resignations had been previously speculated in the media. After the meeting, there are fierce rumors, Labor Minister Esther McVey could quit. The total chaos seems to be left out. Is that enough for May?

One thing is clear: the Prime Minister still faces the biggest challenges. The deal is expected to be approved on 25 November at an EU summit. Then, probably in mid-December, the British House of Commons must decide. Whether May organize a majority there may be completely open. She needs 320 votes. Together with the alliance partner, the national conservative Northern Irish DUP, the Tories come to 328 votes.

But resistance threatens May from all sides. The Conservative Brexit Ultras of the European Research Group (ERG) had again fiercely shot at the Prime Minister in recent days before the first details of the deal became known. For them, any acceptance of EU laws is like submission.

Graphic for the Brexit Deal

The state of the negotiationsHow's Brexit Poker

In this they should now feel confirmed. An end date for the backstop is not specified in the contract text. Brexiters are already sensing the danger of Britain being tied to the customs union forever. On Wednesday, there were reports that the ERG wanted to take things seriously with a long-planned vote of no confidence against their party leader.

The DUP, on the other hand, is not completely reluctant to worry about a special solution for Northern Ireland, even after that day. Initial analysis suggests that in some circumstances specific rules for Belfast could be established.

And even among the proeuropeans at the Tories, there are still some who want to remain in their rigid attitude against the Brexit. On Wednesday, there are several rounds of "Remainer", as they are called on the island. Several of them, the Guardian reports later, continue to call for a second referendum to avert the exit in the end.

If they prevail, all negotiations could end in anyway.