The layered system: are Venezuelan air defenses capable of resisting a possible military invasion?

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the US military was able to conduct a military operation in Venezuela. Russian anti-aircraft missile systems, which are in service with the army of the Bolivarian Republic, will not interfere with this, he said in an interview with CNN.

According to the Secretary of State, “no one should be mistaken” about the capabilities of the US military. If Donald Trump decides to invade Venezuela, the military will execute the order "in a way that will achieve the result desired by the president," Rom Novosti quoted Pompeo words.

American officials are not the first time talking about the intervention in Venezuela. The military invasion of this country did not rule out US President Donald Trump.

“All possibilities are open,” he said in March, answering the question whether American troops could invade the republic.

Recall that on April 30, the leader of the Venezuelan opposition, Juan Guaido, announced that Maduro would be overthrown in May.

“The people of Venezuela initiated the end of usurpation. At the moment I am meeting with the main military units of our armed forces, which marks the beginning of the final phase of Operation Freedom, ”he wrote on his Twitter.

Operation "Freedom" Maduro opponents called mass actions, the purpose of which is to force the president to leave his post.

Venezuelan authorities claim that Guayido has published false information. There were no cases of insubordination to command in headquarters and military bases, Venezuelan Defense Minister Padrino Lopez wrote on his Twitter account. In an interview with local television, he said that only a small group of military and policemen had joined Guayido.

The leader of the Venezuelan opposition in his Twitter urged opponents of Maduro to continue the protests. Guayido announced the beginning of a “peaceful revolution” and agitated his supporters to come to “assembly centers established throughout the country.”

Invasion prospects

Experts are skeptical about the likelihood that the United States will intervene in the conflict in Venezuela. Analysts believe that if Pompeo is not bluffing, he too underestimates the resistance that the Venezuelan armed forces can offer American troops.

“There are three air defense systems in service with Venezuela: Thor, Buk, S-300. Together, these three complexes can create a so-called echeloned defense system. This will repel means of air attack. Each complex performs its tasks: S-300 works on large targets, such as airplanes, including stealth planes, reconnaissance planes, ”said Alexey Leonkov, editor of Fatherland Magazine, in an interview with RT.

• US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
• Reuters
• © Joshua Roberts / File

“Buk” and “Thor” work with other goals: with tactical aircraft, with cruise missiles, the expert added.

“With proper use of these air defense systems, it is possible to build the very layered air defense system that will allow significant damage to the attacking side,” Leonkov said.

At the same time, the expert believes that if the attacking side creates total air superiority, the air defense system will not be able to completely prevent the attack, although it will “cause the enemy significant damage”.

Analysts say that in the Venezuelan army impressive force is not only air defense. The strength of the armed forces of the country - 123 thousand people, not counting the 220 thousand members of the national militia, reports RIA Novosti. The base of the armored troops of the Venezuelan army is made up of 92 Russian-made T-72B1V tanks, about 80 French AMX-30 tanks, as well as 123 units of Russian modernized BMP-3Ms with enhanced armor, a modern fire control system, a turbocharged engine and the Arena- Eh.

Also in service with the Venezuelan army are 114 Russian armored personnel carriers BTR-80A and several dozens of over-age Chinese and French vehicles. The self-propelled cannon artillery of the Venezuelan ground forces is mainly Russian-made. In particular, about fifty ACSs “Msta-S”, twenty-four MLRS “Grad”, twelve 300-mm MLRS “Smerch”.

No pasará de ser una mediocre escaramuza este nuevo intento de golpe de Estado del autoproclamado y sus peleles lacayos del imperio. No podrán dividir la #FANB, ni al Pueblo. No volverán a engañar ya vender la Patria. Somos inminentemente ¡Leales y Patriotas! pic.twitter.com/ANzBhDwhdI

The pride of the Venezuelan army is its aviation, which is based on 23 Russian Su-30MK2V. Venezuela also has a good fleet by the standards of South America: three rocket frigates of Italian manufacture, two torpedo diesel-electric submarines purchased in Germany, as well as a dozen patrol artillery ships, the agency notes.

Leonkov is sure that Maduro has enough opportunities to repel an attack from the outside. Therefore, the United States has not yet decided on a military operation in Venezuela, the expert believes.

“Americans are now trying to make other states clear the way for them, but so far this is not happening,” concludes Leonkov.

Psychological pressure measures

Vladimir Travkin, editor-in-chief of the journal Latin America, reminds us that the talk about the possibility of using the armed forces of the neighboring countries Colombia and Brazil against Venezuela has been going on for several months.

“In Colombia, civil war has just subsided. Now there is peace, even more truce. But people who fought with arms in their hands for their socialist ideas and who consider themselves allies of the Venezuelan socialists are unlikely to sit idly by if the Colombian army supports the American invasion of Venezuela, ”said Travkin in an interview with RT.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonard will also face serious opposition in his homeland if he tries to provide military assistance to the United States.

“The Brazilian military will not support the invasion of Venezuela. They understand how dangerous it is to wage war, having millions of people in the rear sticking to left-wing convictions, ”Travkin said.

At the same time, he draws attention to the fact that both the Colombian-Venezuelan and Colombian-Brazilian borders are a very complex theater of military operations in their geographic conditions, and therefore there can be no transient war. In his opinion, Washington understands that it is not worth waiting for a military invasion of Colombia and Brazil into Venezuela.

“Talking about the fact that both of these countries can support American intervention or even become its main participants is part of the psychological pressure on the Venezuelan authorities, nothing more,” Travkin believes, recalling that exactly Cuba had been threatened with invasion for many years.

• Venezuelan army
• Reuters
• © Manaure Quintero

Leonkov believes that the practical outcome of the US threats will be that Maduro will even more actively arm his army, including with the help of Moscow. He recalled that the total amount of Russian weapons purchased by Venezuela is already $ 12 billion.

“There are a lot of Russian weapons in the Venezuelan army: ground-based, anti-aircraft, aviation complexes. Venezuela bought all this in the quantity in which it considered it necessary. And it will acquire Russian weapons further, including anti-aircraft missile systems, ”the expert notes.

According to Travkin, the Americans will not go to the invasion, but will rock the situation in Venezuela from the inside.

“Before our very eyes, an attempt was made the other day to make a big fire. Nothing happened. However, this does not mean that such attempts will not be made in the future. Americans are now trying to win over the army, but in general, as well as the police and security forces, are on the side of Maduro. In the US, they understand this. They see that the Venezuelan president is not overthrown, although Guaido even called for specific dates when this would happen. Therefore, the United States will redouble its efforts, ”the expert believes.