Although most of the parties involved in the developments in the Syrian conflict, which is mainly involved, did not expect the October summit in Istanbul on October 27, 2018, with the participation of Turkish presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russian Vladimir Putin, Frenchman Emmanuel Macaron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, A breakthrough in the efforts to reach a political settlement of the crisis, meaning that it was keen from the outset to set a limited ceiling for the consequences that could result in it, but this in all did not reduce the anxiety of Iran, which was absent most prominent from That summit.

It was remarkable that within Iran, Iran was keen to link its exclusion from participation in the summit to the ongoing escalation with the United States because of the sanctions and the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, as well as the gradually widening differences with the European countries. To continue working on the nuclear agreement and Iran's insistence on not changing its policy, both at the nuclear and regional levels, in a way that weakens the chances of achieving this in the end.

Several messages

Has argued that Iran's absence from participating in the Quartet summit may be justified by the fact that it is represented in the two countries that are participating in the Astana talks, which are expected to continue in November or December, Russia and Turkey. Javad Zarif visited Istanbul two days after the summit to participate in the tripartite meeting with the foreign ministers of Turkey and Azerbaijan, indicating that the summit talks may have been put forward during the visit. However, this does not exclude that Tehran is still expressing several fears that this step may be Introduction to moving towards work on less Its influence within Syria, and the weakening of its presence in the process of drafting political and security arrangements in the latter. As absent from the summit of many signs, the most prominent of which are:

1- Negative role

The lack of an invitation by Iran to attend the Quartet summit indicates that the vision adopted by some regional and international powers, which is "part of the problem and not the solution in Syria," is gaining momentum. The agenda of the summit is not limited to discussing the situation in Idlib, But also extends to the discussion of pushing the political process, especially with regard to the formation of the constitutional committee, which some parties accuse the Syrian regime of disrupting in order to control it, meaning that the participating countries preferred not to attend Iran, as this could disrupt the talks on the political process , Which is not supported by Tahra .

2 - the success of American pressure

It is clear that the administration of US President Donald Trump has managed to change the equation of escalation with Iran by not only limiting it to the nuclear agreement, but also expanding it to include the regional role played by Iran, especially in crisis countries. As the US administration has begun to promote intensively that this role is one of the main reasons that exacerbated these crises and increased their negative repercussions, especially with regard to the influx of refugees to Western countries and the continuation of terrorist operations that have even moved to the capitals of those countries.

It is noteworthy that these American moves coincided with the insistence of US officials to set a new goal for the survival of US forces in Syria, the work to counter the Iranian military influence in the latter, in addition to the stated objective and basic, which is related to the prevention of the organization «urging» to return to areas that Dominated them in the past, again.

It is possible to say that the campaign promoted by the United States will escalate in the coming period, especially with the start of activating the second package of US sanctions, yesterday, which relate specifically to oil exports, a package on which the US administration relies to put double pressure on Iran to force it to conduct A change in its policy towards acceptance of new negotiations to reach a broader agreement that accommodates US reservations to the current nuclear agreement.

3. Extent of differences with European countries

These countries are working hard to enhance the chances of continuing the nuclear agreement through several mechanisms in which they try to persuade European companies, especially the small ones, to continue their dealings in the Iranian market, such as activating the so-called "disablement mechanism" aimed at avoiding the consequences of US sanctions.

But these countries are clearly resentful of Iran's reaction to this. In parallel with these efforts, which have strained relations with the United States, Iran is still keen to continue its provocative activities, such as the threat of withdrawal from the agreement, And to take some steps to develop its missile program, as well as its continuous interference in the internal affairs of the countries of the region, especially the crisis countries, led by Syria and Yemen.

More than one European country has expressed its desire to reach a new agreement with Iran, which includes commitments broader than those provided for in the current nuclear agreement, reducing the consequences of Iran's nuclear, missile and regional activities.

It is also noteworthy that these countries are relatively close to the American vision of the political and security arrangements in Syria, which was reflected in France's keenness to coordinate with the United States before President Makron participated in the Istanbul Summit, indicating that the latter is also present Directly at the summit, through their ongoing understandings with some of the parties involved.

4. Understandings of "Friends"

Iran does not hide its resentment at the keenness of some of the forces with which it has strong relations, especially Russia and Turkey, to reach political and security understandings with its adversaries in Syria. The resentment has grown with the two countries' success in reaching a settlement on the situation in Idlib during the Sochi summit, which brought together Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan on Sept. 17.

Iran believes that this may escalate in the coming period, especially with the increasing prospects for new talks on the political process in accordance with UN resolutions, in a way that will, of course, affect Iran's position on the arrangements in the Syrian conflict.

Possible escalation

In the next phase, Iran may seek new escalation and provocative steps in Syria not only to send regional messages to the United States, in parallel with the activation of the second package of US sanctions, but also to prove that it is a party that can not be excluded from the process of drafting security and political arrangements in Syria , A trend that will most likely widen the scope of its differences with the forces involved in the developments of the Syrian conflict, including those eager to establish strong relations with it.

- Iran's lack of invitation to attend the Quartet summit indicates that

Vision, adopted by some regional and international powers,

Which are based on «part of the problem and not

Of the solution in Syria ", is gaining momentum, especially

That the summit agenda is not limited to discussing the situation

In Idlib, but also extends to discussion

Push the political process.