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The network and knowledge of the interim North Korean ambassador in Rome, who has been on the run since November, is of interest to many intelligence services. But offering asylum to the defector is a diplomatic joke for South Korea, for the United States as well.
But where is Jo Song-gil hiding? The question has fascinated South Korea since the leak of the acting North Korean ambassador to Rome was confirmed last week by the South Korean secret service. If the spies in Seoul do not seem to know which country the northern diplomat has asked for asylum, there is little doubt that they want to get their hands on him. Because Jo Song-gil knows a lot of things. The French-speaking 44-year-old (not 48 as previously announced) member of one of the elite families of Pyongyang, described as " cultured and idealistic ", spent part of his childhood in Africa, where his father was a diplomat. According to a South Korean source , his father would have been the deputy director of a very influential party organization at the heart of North Korean power.
" What is certain is that Jo Song-gil has excellent information, not on the nuclear, but on the illicit activities of the regime, " says Antoine Bondaz, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. Because of his father's position, the fugitive diplomat " knows the balance of power at the highest level in Pyongyang ". And thanks to his position as ambassador in Rome, " he has very useful information to know how the regime bypasses international sanctions; for example to send luxury goods to North Korea, for the elite . So much knowledge that could be of great interest to the intelligence services of many countries ... but that makes Jo Song-gil a target: North Korea would probably also like to find it, to eliminate it.
Thae Yong-ho's upcoming call to South Korea
On Saturday, the famous defector Thae Yong-ho , formerly vice-ambassador to North Korea in London and refugee in South Korea in 2016, called in an open letter his former colleague to join him in Seoul: coming to South Korea is " an obligation, not a choice, "says Thae Yong-ho. " If you come to Seoul, more of your confreres will follow you and the reunification will come true (...) The day when your compatriots in distress will be released from their chains will be closer ".
But the South Korean government - which claimed until last week that it was unaware of Jo Song-gil's disappearance - hid his uneasiness on the issue. Welcoming the fugitive will not fail to anger the regime of Pyongyang - which will require the repatriation manu militari of his diplomat - and undermine the patient policy of relaxation and inter-Korean rapprochement set up by President Moon Jae-in for a year and half. Jo Song-gil, described as " extremely intelligent " by a Westerner who has met him many times, is not unaware of the risks of knocking on the South Korean door. Which country is more likely to take the defector - and his family left with him - under his wing?
Political asylum in the United States?
In the Italian and South Korean press, the name of the United States comes back with the greatest insistence . In the past, the United States has indeed offered asylum and protection to several high-ranking North Korean dignitaries on the run; including Ko Young-suk , the current leader's aunt Kim Jong-un, who fled to America in 1998 with her husband. Since then, Ko Young-suk " lives in an unfamiliar place under an assumed identity and has opened a laundry, " says diet specialist Andrei Lankov .
It is also to the United States that turns in 1997 the North Korean ambassador to Egypt Jang Sung-gil after his defection. US services should offer Jo Song-gil the best guarantees of comfort, anonymity, and protection against possible North Korean assassins, says Andrei Lankov.
A diplomatic puzzle
But, as for Seoul, openly welcoming the defector is a diplomatic puzzle for Washington, which is currently discussing details of the upcoming summit between Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump. " This would complicate enormously the negotiations of denuclearization which are already difficult, notes Antoine Bondaz . Because of the political context, nobody wants to talk. Nobody, neither the United States nor South Korea, has interest to communicate on the subject. "
It is therefore possible that Jo Song-gil's country of asylum and his family will not be unveiled for a long time ... and the call of "colleague" Thae Yong-ho remains a dead letter. Recent developments in South Korea illustrate the difficulties faced by high-level defectors and Seoul's ambivalent attitude towards them. Welcomed with open arms in 2016 by a conservative government that was too happy to use it to justify its policy of firmness towards the North, Thae Yong-ho sees its situation change radically after the election of a center government. -Left in May 2017: the new administration is embarking on its policy of extended hand in Pyongyang and prefers the defector to be more discreet. He eventually resigned from the government think tank that employed him to keep his freedom of speech.
32,000 North Koreans live today in the South. Most are not dignitaries, but ordinary citizens who have fled the misery and famine of their native country. The number of arrivals peaked in the mid-2000s, then dropped significantly after Kim Jong-un came to power in 2012. This decline is due to the relative improvement in living conditions in the country. North and by the increased efforts of Pyongyang to close its borders: this continuous flow of defections - ordinary citizens or dignitaries like Jo Song-gil - is indeed seen as a humiliation for a regime that likes to present itself as "Paradise workers".