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A photo taken on January 11, 2019 on which we can see a graffiti on a wall in Bangkok with the word "vote", covered with barbed wire. REUTERS / Jorge Silva

Parliamentary elections are taking place on 24 March in Thailand. The first since the coup of 2014. The Thai junta promised for years to organize this election. It has locked the Constitution and redraw the electoral map to put all the chances on its side. With a natural candidate: the strongman of Thailand, General Prayut Chan-O-Cha, who wants to confirm in the polls the power he took by force 5 years ago.

Prayut has swapped his uniform for a suit and claims that he is going to campaign like everyone else. But at the ballot box he has no chance. The researcher Eugénie Mérieau reminds how much the Peua-Thaï, the party of the former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, remains inescapable in Thailand.

" For more than 10 years now, Thais; they always vote for the same party by giving an overwhelming majority to the Peua-Thai party. That has always been the case since 1997, there were six elections. Six elections that were triumphantly won by Peua-Thaï will be the same for this election. Thai voters are very loyal to Thaksin, "says the specialist.

The regime will not have the popular vote. It is the opposition that will dominate the National Assembly. But that will not be enough. Because in 2016, the junta changed the Constitution . Now the Senate is controlled by the military. Senators have as much weight as MPs to designate the prime minister.

In other words, the general-in-chief is sure to keep power even if he does not get the majority of the votes cast.