Venezuela's capital awoke this Thursday with two presidents and a crucial question: will the government arrest the self-proclaimed leader Juan Guaidó? As she has done so many times before, when opposition politicians opposed the government.
The mere fact that Guaidó is still at liberty already means a victory for the opposition, the opponents of leftist Nationalist President Nicolás Maduro. Because the longer he acts as a "transitional president", the more support he receives abroad, the more encouraged the population is to continue their protest against the unpopular government.
"People needed that, they needed such an unexpected step, they can hold on to it, and finally, everything is not just about demonstrations, but leads to concrete actions," says José Quintero, former chairman of the non-governmental organization Pro Catia in Caracas and living in exile in the USA for several years.
There have been protests against Maduro over the years, most recently for weeks in summer 2017. At the end, more than a hundred were dead, but Maduro was still sitting in the presidential palace of Miraflores. Demonstrations, protests with dead people, as well as sanctions and isolation - all attacks have Maduro parried so far. But the self-proclamation of Guaidó brings a new situation. A key difference to the other protests is the great international recognition that the young politician is experiencing.
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Juan Guaido
And so the conflict is no longer purely Venezuelan, it is now also an international one. Within a short time, the US, Canada and the Organization of American States Guaidó recognized as president on Wednesday. Russia, Turkey and Cuba backed Maduro. Both China and Russia, and more recently Turkey, have all backed Maduro, supporting it with billions and securing access to lucrative oil reserves. Venezuela is the country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world. The said states will do a lot to keep the ailing autocrat in power.
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In Venezuela itself Guaidó, who three weeks ago only insiders was a concept, succeeded what all his predecessors have failed: he has united the opposition. Also, because she knows that the current uprising may be the last chance to get rid of the ruler who has developed in recent years from the elected head of state to the ruthless autocrat. Maduro has bowed down the laws, brought institutions together and created or disempowered parliaments just as he was in the business. Everything just to stay in power.
"Guaidó works hard, is modest, and he can unite," says Lilian Tintori, wife of Leopoldo López, the opposition leader of the Voluntad Popular party, who is under house arrest. "But he takes a huge risk," says Tintori. "It may be that you are dealing with Guaidó as with my husband and imprisoning him."
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With Guaidó, the opposition suddenly has a new, fresh face, says political scientist Margarita López Maya. That could help. "People are frustrated and fed up with the same representatives of the opposition who have always failed in the fight against the government." Moreover, Guaidó does not belong to the country's oligarchy, against which many people have as many reservations as against the Chavists. His father works as a taxi driver in Tenerife.
Wednesday has shown how great is the desire for an opposition leader behind which people can gather. Hundreds of thousands throughout the country responded to his call to take to the streets on January 23. It is a symbolic date for the country because on that day in 1958 the last Venezuelan dictator Marcos Pérez Jiménez was overthrown. Even in poor neighborhoods where people used to be loyal to Maduro, many took part in the protests.
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Nicolás Maduro
Something else speaks for Guaidó: since the wave of protests in 2017, the conditions have changed significantly. The economic and social situation with inflation, missing food and medicines leads to more illnesses, more deaths and even more hopelessness and anger. The situation in the South American country is so dramatic that people simply want one thing: to chase this government out of office.
Decisive will be the next 72 hours. On Saturday night local time, Maduro's ultimatum to US diplomats expires, leaving the country. Washington has already announced that it will not comply with the expulsion order. And Guaidó asked the US government in writing not to withdraw their representatives from Caracas. Will Maduro force them out of the country and risk an open conflict with Washington?
By then it will also be clear whether the military leadership continues to Maduro, as suggested on Wednesday evening. When the officers change sides, the days of the autocrat in Caracas are finally counted.